Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis

This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.     

Durum wheat quality prediction in Mediterranean environments: From local to regional scale

Durum wheat is one of the most important agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area. In addition to yield, grain quality is very important in wheat markets because of the demand for high-quality end products such as pasta, couscous and bulgur wheat. Grain quality is directly affected by several agronomic and environmental factors. Our objective is to determine the general principles underlying how, in Mediterranean environments, grain protein content (GPC) is affected by these factors and provide a system model with high predictive ability. We initially evaluated the capability of the Delphi system to simulate GPC in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany) for 9 years (1999–2007) a month ahead of harvesting and we then analyzed relations between Delphi system errors and selected environmental variables during flowering and grain filling stages. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression with observed GPC, while errors were calculated performing a linear correlation analysis with environmental variables. The model showed a high capability to reproduce the inter-annual variability, with important year to year differences, with better performance in the southern study areas (Basilicata and Capitanata). In this study the highest overestimation occurred in conjunction with the year (2004) characterized by the lowest quality in terms of GPC, lowest average temperature in May and highest yield production for the whole study period.     

Simulations of multipurpose water availability in a semi-arid catchment under different management strategies

In the semi-arid Brazilian Northeast, the exploitation of alluvial aquifers for irrigation and domestic supply to rural communities over the last 10 years has upset the traditional mechanisms of water resources management. In the Forquilha watershed (221 km²; 5°17″S, 39°30″W), the two main water resources are reservoirs (with a capacity exceeding 0.9-6.7 × 10⁶ m³), used for domestic water supply only, and an alluvial aquifer (2.3 × 10⁶ m³), used for irrigation and domestic water supply. From 1998 to 2006, the irrigated area with alluvial groundwater increased from 0 to 75 ha, and the fraction of population supplied through domestic water networks, using reservoirs and the aquifer, increased from 1% to 70%. Based on physical and socioeconomic issues, three main water territories have been defined (“Aquifer”, “Reservoirs”, and “Disperse Habitat”). Considering the next 30 years with a realistic population growth, three hypotheses regarding irrigated area (i.e., 0, 75, or 150 ha), and several possible water-management scenarios, hydrological balance models were built and used to simulate the different impacts on water resource availability and salinity. Simulation results showed that, in all cases, releases from the upstream main reservoir are necessary to keep reservoir salinity below 0.7 g L⁻¹ and for guaranteeing domestic needs in the whole watershed. As a consequence, a management approach that takes into account the interrelations among the three territories is necessary. Moreover, the simulations showed that the area of irrigated fields cannot exceed the current extent (75 ha), or serious restrictions on water availability and salinity will take place. Moreover, important socioeconomic problems are expected, including a high cost of palliative water supply with tank trucks from external sources.     

Simulation of the factors affecting β-glucan levels during the cultivation of oats

A Monte Carlo simulation technique was employed to simulate the factors influencing the level of β-glucan content in both hulled (HO) and naked (NO) oat cultivars during cultivation of the crop. Probability density functions were used to model the uncertainty and variability in the input factors. A scenario analysis was subsequently developed to look at the impact of different model assumptions and input parameters. The simulated mean β-glucan level in harvested oats grain was 3.50 and 4.25 g/100 g for hulled (HO) and naked (NO), respectively. A sensitivity analysis highlighted that cultivar selection was the most important input parameter compared to other inputs in determining the final β-glucan level (correlation coefficients of 0.64 and 0.79 for HO and NO, respectively). The analysis also indicated the positive effect of delayed sowing on β-glucan content (correlation coefficients of 0.32 and 0.25 for HO and NO, respectively). Germination and storage factors showed a negative impact on the final β-glucan levels. The scenario analysis shows the applicability of the proposed model for various agronomic practices. This approach establishes a quantitative scientific ranking of factors influencing β-glucan levels during the cultivation of oats.     

Assessing alternative futures for agriculture in Iowa,U.S.A.

The contributions of current agricultural practices to environmental degradation and the social problems facing agricultural regions are well known. However, landscape-scale alternatives to current trends have not been fully explored nor their potential impacts quantified. To address this research need, our interdisciplinary team designed three alternative future scenarios for two watersheds in Iowa, USA, and used spatially-explicit models to evaluate the potential consequences of changes in farmland management. This paper summarizes and integrates the results of this interdisciplinary research project into an assessment of the designed alternatives intended to improve our understanding of landscape ecology in agricultural ecosystems and to inform agricultural policy. Scenario futures were digitized into a Geographic Information System (GIS), visualized with maps and simulated images, and evaluated for multiple endpoints to assess impacts of land use change on water quality, social and economic goals, and native flora and fauna. The Biodiversity scenario, targeting restoration of indigenous biodiversity, ranked higher than the current landscape for all endpoints (biodiversity, water quality, farmer preference, and profitability). The Biodiversity scenario ranked higher than the Production scenario (which focused on profitable agricultural production) in all endpoints but profitability, for which the two scenarios scored similarly, and also ranked higher than the Water Quality scenario in all endpoints except water quality. The Water Quality scenario, which targeted improvement in water quality, ranked highest of all landscapes in potential water quality and higher than the current landscape and the Production scenario in all but profitability. Our results indicate that innovative agricultural practices targeting environmental improvements may be acceptable to farmers and could substantially reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture in this region.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Managing agricultural change for biodiversity conservation in a Mediterranean upland

In Europe, land use changes follow public policies, and particularly the Common Agricultural Policy. To predict the effect of policies on agricultural practices, landscape, and ultimately biodiversity, requires understanding of the interactions between social, economic and ecological dynamics at regional scale. We studied by means of prospective scenarios the possible effects of agricultural changes on biodiversity in a Mediterranean upland. This area is characterised by extensive grasslands that have been maintained for centuries by agriculture and are now threatened by tree and shrub encroachment. We built four scenarios that describe possible changes in agricultural EU policies by 2030. We selected 15 bird species on the basis of a high natural heritage responsibility of the study area for these species and 45 plant species on the same basis plus local rarity and habitat vulnerability. We analysed how these species were affected by the four scenarios by considering changes in their habitats. For each scenario, we analysed the driving forces that determine land use changes. Landscape dynamics was modelled with a Generalised Linear Model combining environmental and land use factors. Most of the 60 selected species depend on open habitats. Only the scenario where public support was only granted if it provided environmental services had a positive impact on open habitats and their associated biodiversity. This ‘natural heritage’ scenario was also rated positively by local stakeholders. This approach sheds light on the interest of inter/transdisciplinary studies, scenarios, and stakeholder involvement in the definition of public policies for biodiversity conservation.     

福建省基于自适应调整的水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应

将福建省划分为3 个稻区, 共选取17 个样点和9 个代表性品种开展气候变化影响评价研究。首先, 根据IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2、B2、A1B 三种方案和区域气候模式(PRECIS), 生成了研究区域两个时段(1961-1990 年, 2021-2050 年)的气候变化情景; 然后, 采用经验证的CERES-Rice 模型, 模拟分析了福建省各稻区在未来不同气候变化情景下可能的稻作制度、品种搭配及水稻播期, 并认为这是水稻生产自适应调整后的结果; 接着, 以调整后的稻作制度、品种搭配及水稻播期作为CERES-Rice 模型新的输入, 在3 种气候变化情景下再次进行模拟试验, 最后得出未来经过自适应调整后的水稻产量、稳产性以及全省水稻总产的变化。结果表明: 在A2、B2、A1B 三种气候变化情景下, 闽东南双季稻区的早稻模拟产量经自适应调整后, 较之不考虑这种调整依次提高了15.9%、18.0%和19.2%, 后季稻依次提高了9.2%、7.4%和7.4%; 闽西北双季稻区的早稻模拟产量依次提高了21.2%、20.5%和18.9%, 后季稻依次提高了14.7%、14.8%和7.2%。考虑自适应调整后, 闽西北山地单季稻区的水稻模拟产量在A2、B2、A1B 情景下, 较之不考虑这种调整依次增产4.9%、5.0%和2.9%, 其中长汀在A2 与B2 情景下可改种双季稻。在综合考虑水稻生产自适应调整后, 福建省水稻模拟总产表现为增产, 在A2、B2 与A1B 情景下较之当前依次增加5.9%、5.2%和5.1%。因此,在气候变化影响评价研究中, 将水稻生产的自适应能力考虑在内, 不仅科学合理, 而且可以得到较为乐观的结论。     

气候变化情景下宁夏马铃薯单产变化模拟

将DSSAT—SUBSTOR马铃薯模拟模型与PRECIS区域气候模式相嵌套，在25km×25km网格尺度上，模拟未来气候情景下宁夏马铃薯产量变化，分析影响未来马铃薯产量变化的主要原因。结果表明：在目前的品种、种植方式、田间管理不变的情况下，两种温室气体排放方案下，从2020s到2080s宁夏马铃薯单产均降低8．7％～41．3％，A2情景下马铃薯减产幅度大于B2情景，中部干旱带减产幅度大于南部山区。造成马铃薯减产的主要原因是，（1）未来宁夏马铃薯主产区马铃薯生育期内降水量减少，而马铃薯需水量显著增加，马铃薯缺水量加大；（2）马铃薯块茎膨大期气温显著升高，不利于块茎养分积累。     

Using normative scenarios in landscape ecology

The normative landscape scenario is one of many types of scenario methods that are used by landscape ecologists. We describe how normative landscape scenarios are different from other types and how these differences create special potential for engaging science to build landscape policy and for exploring scientific questions in realistic simulated landscapes. We describe criteria and a method for generating normative scenarios to realize this potential in both policy and landscape ecology research. Finally, we describe how the method and criteria apply to an interdisciplinary project that proposed alternative scenarios for federal agricultural policy and related futures for agricultural watersheds in Iowa, USA.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.