Habitat configuration for an obligate shallow‐water delphinid: The Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphin,Sousa chinensis,in the Beibu Gulf (Gulf of Tonkin)

1. Habitat configuration is an important baseline to delineate protected area design, refine impact mitigation measures and define habitat protection plans for threatened species. For coastal delphinids, outlining their habitat configuration becomes a real challenge when faced with large distribution ranges that straddle international borders, leaving broad information gaps in uninvestigated areas.
2. This study projected likely habitats of Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins, Sousa chinensis, in the Beibu Gulf (Gulf of Tonkin) based on occurrence data and remotely sensed oceanographic characteristics. Net primary productivity was derived to measure the ecosystem service of humpback dolphin habitats.
3. Bathymetry and chlorophyll‐a concentration are major variables contributing to humpback dolphin habitat configuration, which is characterized by shallow water depth and high primary productivity. Three major, likely habitats were identified in the northern Beibu Gulf from western Leizhou Peninsula to the China–Vietnam border, western Gulf of Tonkin from the Red River estuary to the central coast of Vietnam, and south‐western Hainan Island. Less than 9% of likely habitats are currently protected by marine protected areas.
4. Affinity to high primary productivity and shallow depths implies that prey abundance and foraging efficiency influence habitat selection by Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins. Anthropogenic activities potentially altering oceanographic characteristics may impact regional marine ecosystem functions, and hence habitat configuration.
5. Habitat protection actions for Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins include implementing coordinated and systematic surveys in major habitats, associating core habitat protection with protected area networks and maritime function zoning, ensuring ecosystem function integrity within major habitats, and reducing both explicit lethal impacts and implicit anthropogenic impacts from activities that change oceanographic features. The habitat protection plan should not only consider marine habitats, but also adjacent coastal landscapes and river catchments. This requires coordination, collaboration and information sharing between scientific research teams, government policy representatives, non‐governmental organizations, local communities and other interested stakeholders.

     

气候变化对桂花分布的影响研究

桂花是我国特有树种,具有很高的经济价值而被广泛栽培,主要用于园林绿化、饮食和药用,桂花的栽培品种在城乡园林景观中较为多见,但野生资源破坏严重,生境恶化,物种多样性也随之减少。该文在不同气候情景下,对桂花的潜在适生区分布进行预测,可探究气候变化下该物种的生境变迁,并了解其地理分布与气候间的相互关系,为桂花的资源保护与利用提供重要的科学依据。利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型,根据影响桂花适生区分布的31个环境因子和当前桂花生境的368个自然分布点,对当前和未来（2050年、2070年）桂花的潜在分布区进行预测,并用刀切法检验来评估气候因子的重要性。结果表明:1）在当前环境条件下,桂花在我国主要分布在33°N以南的地区,总潜在分布区面积约224.23×10⁴ km²;2）干燥季节的月降水量、潮湿的频率、干旱季节的平均温度是影响桂花生境的主导环境因子;3）随着未来气候的改变,桂花的潜在分布区向北偏东高纬度地区发生迁移,西南地区潜在分布区减少,建议该地区的桂花居群优先保护。     

基于适宜概率模型的柑橘生产空间模拟变化

土地利用/土地覆被变化模拟是土地科学的重要内容。随着全球变化研究的不断深入,LUCC变化模拟已逐步深入到农作物空间。开展长时序农作物空间变化模拟有助于揭示农业生产过程中“人类-自然”综合体的复杂关系。然而目前农作物空间模拟研究较少,已有模型在空间映射关系,对象识别等尚存技术局限,模型应用也主要集中在粮食作物。本文构建了基于适宜概率的柑橘生产空间分配模型,对四川省柑橘生产空间分布进行了模拟研究。结果显示：该模型较好地反映了1980—2015年柑橘统计特征,各时期统计面积和模拟面积的相对误差均＜25%。在县域尺度上,统计面积和模拟面积的相关系数在0.987 6~0.999 9,呈现明显的线性相关,达到了极显著相关。1980—2015年间,四川省柑橘空间快速扩张,柑橘模拟面积的时序变化与统计面积一致。柑橘空间集中在川中丘陵区和成都平原区。空间格局从分散零星向区域集聚转变,大致形成了成都平原、川南、川东北3个柑橘集中区。SPAM-Citrus模型误差受空间分辨率、空间分配规则、土地覆被、作物分布点的共同影响。在应用中应尽量选择种植年限较长的采样点,同时面向研究对象和区域,选择合适分辨率和空间分配规则,提高预测结果的准确性。     

基于Maxent模型的葡萄根瘤蚜在中国的适生性分析

【目的】预测葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的潜在分布范围,为进一步防止其扩散蔓延提供科学依据。【方法】采用Maxent生态位模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)并结合影响葡萄根瘤蚜生长发育的环境因子,对葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的潜在适生范围进行了预测。【结果】葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的高适生区主要集中在辽宁大部、河北东南部、山东、河南东部、江苏、浙江北部、江西局部、安徽大部、湖北中部、湖南中部、陕西关中及陕南、重庆、四川东部、贵州北部;通过ROC曲线验证,该模型的训练集和测试集的AUC值分别为0.982和0.962(非常接近1),表明预测获得了较好的结果;年平均气温、最热月份最高温度、最冷月份最低温度、最暖季度平均温度、最冷季度平均温度、年降雨量、最湿月份降雨量、最湿季度降雨量和最冷季度降雨量对葡萄根瘤蚜的潜在分布影响较大。【结论】葡萄根瘤蚜在我国适生范围广泛,加强未被葡萄根瘤蚜侵染地区的监测管理意义重大。     

气候变化下三裂叶豚草在新疆的潜在地理分布

明确有害入侵种在区域尺度上的潜在分布及其对气候变化的响应对入侵种的预警和具体防控意义重大。三裂叶豚草是全球公认的恶性入侵杂草,目前已经大面积入侵“一带一路”中亚枢纽—新疆伊犁河谷。为有效防控三裂叶豚草在新疆的扩散蔓延,本研究基于最大熵模型,预测了当前及未来两种气候情景（RCP4.5, RCP8.5）下2050s和2070s时期三裂叶豚草在新疆的潜在分布及变化趋势。结果表明：当前气候下三裂叶豚草在新疆的总适生面积达24.01万km²,约占全疆面积的14%,在RCP4.5情景下,至2050s、2070s时期将分别增至37.36万和39.23万km²;在RCP8.5情景下,将分别增至39.45万和42.94万km²。在未来两种气候情景下,随着时间的推移,潜在适生区总体均呈现向北增加转移的趋势,减少区域主要集中在准噶尔盆地。所有环境因子中,与降水相关的因子总贡献率为40.1%,与温度相关的因子总贡献率56.0%,其中最干月降水（36.2%）、温度季节性变化标准差（29.1%）是对三裂叶豚草分布贡献率较高的环境因子。耕地和建设用地是三裂叶豚草入侵风险最高的区域。建议管理的重点除了放在已预测到的适生区内,还应特别关注农田、草场、道路两侧这些人畜扰动大、水分充足的区域。     

Modeling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Black Pepper（Piper nigrum）in Asia Using GIS Tools

Known as the "king of spices",black pepper (Piper nigrum),a perennial crop of the tropics,is economically the most important and the most widely used spice crop in the world.To understand its suitable ...     

Biogeography and conservation of taxa from remote regions: An application of ecological-niche based models and GIS to North-African canids

In North Africa, and especially in the Sahara Desert, biodiversity is poorly known. Of the five widespread canid species present, one is Data Deficient, three are considered widespread although habitat selection could limit their area of occupancy, and distribution maps available are coarse for conservation planning. This study identifies biogeographic patterns in North-African canids through the combination of high resolution presence data with 16 environmental factors. Predictive models trained in north-west Africa are projected to all North Africa. canids exhibited distinct biogeographical affinities. GIS tools and Maximum Entropy models identify a mixture of climatic and habitat factors as main predictors of species occurrence. Suitable habitats for North-African canids are mostly fragmented: probable occurrence was identified for Canis aureus in Saharan peripheral regions and mountains, for Vulpes pallida in a narrow band along the Sahel and in southern Saharan mountains, for Vulpes rueppellii throughout the Sahara, for Vulpes vulpes in northern Africa until the Sahara northern limit, and for Vulpes zerda in almost all Sahara. Areas of potential sympatry between species with similar niches and parapatric ranges are identified along relatively narrow bands. The small pixel size of projections allows the identification of suitable refuges for species otherwise absent in the driest Saharan habitats, providing framework data for the definition of the global conservation status of V. pallida, and conservation strategies for the guild. The biological value of Saharan mountains is emphasised as they constitute isolated suitable areas. Ecological-niche based models should be developed for other endangered Saharan vertebrates.     

European Bison habitat in the Carpathian Mountains

European Bison (Bison bonasus) barely escaped extinction in the early 20th century and now only occur in small isolated herds scattered across Central and Eastern Europe. The species’ survival in the wild depends on identifying suitable habitat for establishing bison metapopulations via reintroductions of new herds. We assessed European Bison habitat across the Carpathian Mountains, a stronghold of European Bison and one of the only places where a viable bison metapopulation may be possible. We used maximum entropy models to analyze herd range maps and habitat use data from radio-collared bison to identify key habitat variables and map European Bison habitat across the entire Carpathian ecoregion (210,000 km²). Forest cover (primarily core and perforated forests) and variables linked to human disturbance best predict bison habitat suitability. Bison show no clear preference for particular forest types but prefer managed grasslands over fallow and abandoned fields. Several large, suitable, but currently unoccupied habitat patches exist, particularly in the eastern Carpathians. This available suitable habitat suggests that European Bison have an opportunity to establish a viable Carpathian metapopulation, especially if recent trends of declining human pressure and reforestation of abandoned farmland continue. Our results also confirm the suitability of a proposed Romanian reintroduction site. Establishing the first European Bison metapopulation would be a milestone in efforts to conserve this species in the wild and demonstrate a significant and hopeful step towards conserving large grazers and their ecological roles in human-dominated landscapes across the globe.     

Potential distribution of two Ambrosia species in China under projected climate change

The invasion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ambrosia trifida from their native range to occupy large areas in China has raised considerable concern. Using the maximum entropy (Maxent) method, we developed models for each Ambrosia species, based on occurrence records from both native ranges (North America) and their invaded ranges (e.g. northern and south‐western Europe) to predict the availability and distribution of suitable habitats for these two species in China. For each species, we also assessed potential shifts in habitat suitability for the year 2050, using three general circulation models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios. Elevation and average mean precipitation in October contributed most to model development for both species. Potential distribution projections under future climatic change scenarios suggested an averaged percentage of suitable area (2.21%) and habitat gain (1.49%) in A. artemisiifolia distribution, with further expansion to environmentally favourable locations in south‐east coastal regions, northern Taiwan and the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan area in northern China. Future predicted percentage of suitable area for A. trifida was 0.03% with a very limited suitable habitat gain of <1% although this species had the potential to continue to spread in northern China. Our findings suggest that management priorities should be focused on A. artemisiifolia, whilst effective control strategies for A. trifida may be optimised by concentrating efforts on those relatively fewer regions of China where the species is currently abundant.