基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

发展中国南海热带岛礁海洋牧场——机遇、现状与展望

广阔的南海热带海域拥有得天独厚的岛礁资源与环境优势,具有巨大的开发利用潜力。近年来,在国家"海洋强国"战略的提出与稳步践行的背景之下,加快南海岛礁渔业资源的保护与可持续利用已迫在眉睫。现代海洋牧场是集生境修复、资源养护、休闲渔业和景观生态于一体的渔业生产新业态,真正实现了海洋经济发展和海洋生态环境保护并重,但目前南海热带岛礁海洋牧场建设仍严重滞后。充分利用南海热带岛礁海域的资源与环境优势,发展热带海洋牧场可以有力振兴岛礁经济、保护与合理开发岛礁资源,同时也是维护南海海洋权益、实践"海洋强国"战略的有力举措。本文论述了南海热带岛礁海域开展海洋牧场建设的优势,包括政策优势、自然地理优势、资源优势和产业经济优势等;提出南海热带岛礁海洋牧场的适宜建设模式,主要包括资源养护与增殖型海洋牧场和休闲旅游型海洋牧场;综述了广东、广西和海南省在热带近岸和岛礁海洋牧场建设方面的进展;阐述了热带岛礁牧场建设面临的困难和风险,包括气候与自然灾害、生物敌害、基础设施落后、海域使用权审批严格等问题;基于对问题的分析,提出了相关的对策与建议,包括科学选址、优化设施设计与投放方案、研发敌害应对技术、提升自动化信息化运营管理能力、创新牧场投资与运行模式、加大政府政策支持与扶持力度等,相关建议以期为未来南海热带岛礁海洋牧场建设提供策略支持。     

Degradation of the urban ecosystem function due to soil sealing: involvement in the heat island phenomenon and hydrologic cycle in the Tokyo metropolitan area

ABSTRACT

We reviewed the role of the soil function of urban green space in mitigating the heat island phenomenon and urban flood damage, which are important issues in the modern urban environment. Urban sprawl has progressed remarkably in the southern part of the Kanto District of Japan, especially since the 1960s. The grassland/bare land area ratio in the center of Tokyo was more than 70% in the 1930s but less than 40% in 1990. On the other hand, the paving area ratio was ~2% in the 1930s but more than 10 times that amount in 1990. Thus, cities, such as Tokyo, in the southern part of the Kanto District have been significantly sealed soil throughout time, and the heat island phenomenon has intensified. Urban green space helps to mitigate the heat island phenomenon based on the water retention and heat dissipation function of plants and unsealed soil. A cool island effect was reported during summer days in urban green spaces in Tokyo. The mitigation of the heat island effect seems to be large, even when conditions, such as the park area, land use, afforestation area ratio, and soil type, differ. Soil sealing and compaction affect urban flooding by hindering the penetration of rainwater and increasing surface runoff. According to a survey in the hilly basin (1 km²) of the western part of Tokyo, the proportion of farm- and forestland decreased due to development. The urban area increased from ~10% in the 1970s to ~60% in the 1980s. As a result, the flood arrival time shortened. Green spaces have a high rainwater permeability. The forest soil structure and presence of O horizons further increase the permeability. By promoting permeability to the underground, it is possible to reduce and delay the water runoff on the land surface. To develop urban green space as green infrastructure, it is necessary to accumulate more information on the current situation and agenda for the future of urban green space.     

Responses of Australian sea lions,Neophoca cinerea,to anthropogenic activities in the Perth metropolitan area,Western Australia

1. Tourist‐based activities, partly due to their rapid increase, have raised concerns regarding the impacts of anthropogenic activity on marine fauna. Documented effects on pinnipeds in proximity to humans include changes in behaviour, site use and potentially higher aggression levels towards people. Effects vary considerably between populations and sites, thus requiring separate assessment of human impacts on activity and energy budgets.
2. Responses of the endangered Australian sea lion, Neophoca cinerea, to human visitation were recorded from November 2013 through April 2014. Exposure levels and response types to anthropogenic activities were assessed at two easily accessible locations with different management schemes, Seal (landing prohibited) and Carnac (landing permitted) islands, Western Australia. Exposure levels were measured as both stimulus type (i.e. ‘People’, ‘Paddlers’, ‘Small’, ‘Medium’, and ‘Large vessels’, ‘Tour vessels’, and ‘Jet skies’), and people (‘Direct’, ‘Attract’, ‘Interact’, ‘View’, ‘Incidental’, ‘Water’, ‘Low‐level’), and vessel activities (‘Interact’, ‘Approach/Follow’, ‘Anchor noise’, ‘Engine noise’, ‘Close to beach’, ‘Moderate/Fast travel’, ‘Slow travel’, ‘Transit’, ‘Drift/At anchor’, ‘Aircraft noise’).
3. Exposure levels varied significantly between the islands in numbers, stimuli type, duration and minimum approach distances. The instantaneous behaviours of ‘Lift head’, ‘Interact’ and ‘Sit’ were the most frequent responses. ‘Aggressive’ and ‘Retreat’ responses, the highest disturbance levels measured, occurred on Carnac approximately once per day, but rarely on Seal Island. ‘Aggressive’ behaviour towards ‘People’ was observed only on Carnac Island and elicited only by ‘People’. ‘People’, ‘Tour vessels’, and scenic ‘Aircrafts’ on both islands as well as ‘Jet skis’ on Carnac Island had the highest probability of triggering responses. Owing to their relatively high visitation at Seal Island, ‘Paddle powered vessels’, followed by ‘Tour vessels’ elicited the highest number of responses, compared with ‘People’, ‘Small’, and ‘Medium vessels’ at Carnac Island. The majority of responses occurred when any stimulus type was at short‐range (≤10 m), and ‘People’ ‘Viewing’ N. cinerea elicited most. Vessels triggered more responses at larger ranges than ‘People’.
4. To limit close‐range access to N. cinerea, one possibility is to close the beach at Carnac Island to human visitation and increase the minimum approach distance by vessels and ‘People’ by installing marker buoys at least 15 m from the shore.

© 2016 The Authors. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于低功耗广域网的海岛水产养殖环境监测系统研制

针对海岛环境中水产养殖区域分散、工作环境恶劣、人工巡检不便等问题,设计了基于低功耗广域物联网的海岛养殖环境监测系统。系统包括集成Arduino和传感器的终端采集节点,通过LoRa技术实现数据汇总和远距离传输的汇聚网关,利用Python与PostgreSQL开发用于数据接收、存储、处理、访问和控制的后台监测系统。通过对网络拓扑复杂度、能耗等方面的评估,表明在海岛环境下部署水产养殖环境监测系统,相比传统Zigbee多跳无线传感网,采用LoRaWAN,其单跳节点覆盖范围更大,而网络复杂度、能耗等更优。测试表明该系统能以较低功耗实现整片区域内远距离数据采集,有效传输养殖区水体环境数据。网络生存期与传输可靠性测试表明,当传感器节点采用3.7 V/4 200 mAh锂电池,上传周期为30 min时,监测网络的有效生存期理论上可达2.4 a;在800 m通信范围内,发射功率为20 mW时,节点丢包率小于3.6%,具有较高的通信可靠性。该研究可为水产养殖生产和物联网应用研究提供有效参考。     

水生植物对不同氮磷水平养殖尾水的综合净化能力比较

为了筛选适用于不同氮磷浓度畜禽养殖尾水的生态浮岛优势物种，选取水芹、凤眼莲、鸢尾、再力花、黄菖蒲5种挺水植物和狐尾藻、伊乐藻、金鱼藻3种沉水植物，通过模拟实验考察了这8种植物在不同氮磷浓度条件下的生长特征及其对水中氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）、总磷（TP）、COD的去除效率，并对其进行曲线回归及主成分分析，综合评价不同水生植物对畜禽养殖废水中氮磷的净化功能。结果表明：凤眼莲、再力花在较低氮磷水平（NH₄⁺-N 80~120 mg·L^-1，TP 8~16 mg·L^-1）下的去除能力明显高于其他水生植物；水芹和黄菖蒲在较高氮磷水平（NH₄⁺-N 180~220 mg·L^-1，TP 30~35 mg·L^-1）下的去除效果较好，并具有良好的适应能力；沉水植物中狐尾藻净化效果较好，生物量增长显著（P<0.05）；凤眼莲在实验过程中虽净化能力良好，但易引发次生环境问题，应谨慎选择，因地制宜。     

人工浮岛种植水生植物对包头南海湿地水质净化效果研究

【目的】解决包头南海湿地氮磷等营养元素富集的问题,提升包头南海湿地的水质。【方法】于2017年7—9月,在包头南海湿地构筑了一段由3种水生植物单独或混合种植的人工浮岛,并对浮岛的水质进行跟踪监测。【结果】经过92 d的试验处理,风车草对TN的去除效果最好,去除率为36.02%,可以使水体中TN质量浓度提高到地表水Ⅴ类标准;风车草+水葱+千屈菜对TP的去除效果最好,去除率为41.61%,可以使水体中TP质量浓度从地表水Ⅴ类标准提高到Ⅳ类标准;对CODcr去除效果最好的是风车草+水葱+千屈菜,去除率为27.01%。对浮游藻类抑制效果最好的是风车草,可以有效抑制水华束丝藻。【结论】混合植物人工浮岛比单一型人工浮岛去除氮磷等有机物的效果要好,尤以风车草、水葱、千屈菜3种植物混合组成的人工浮岛对氮磷等有机物的效果最好。风车草、水葱、千屈菜可以作为包头南海湿地水体富营养化防治的浮岛栽培植物来进行推广应用。     

风云三号气象卫星在海南橡胶林遥感监测中的应用

基于近4 a的FY-3晴空遥感数据,采用Savitzky-Golay滤波方法计算海南橡胶林种植区逐旬的NDVI,建立橡胶林不同年份的橡胶周年生长植被指数变化曲线。在植被指数序列的基础上,通过NDVI值的变化值与此时段橡胶NDVI值的变化值的标准方差的比较,建立了海南橡胶气象灾害损失等级标准。实现了FY-3气象卫星数据在海南天然橡胶林遥感长势动态监测中的应用。     

小叶锦鸡儿灌丛土壤肥力变化的研究

研究了内蒙古风蚀沙化区退化草原植被恢复或重建过程中灌丛对养分的聚集和土壤肥力的保护作用,结果表明灌丛大小和灌丛不同土层养分含量没有明显的变化趋势,灌丛内0~5 cm土层的养分含量高于相应的对照样地,5~20 cm土层有机质和速效氮含量高于相应的对照,灌丛土壤颗粒含量和本地区土壤本底颗粒组成有密切的关系,和对照区相比,短期内没有显著增加土壤的细粒成分,但灌丛在减少风蚀方面具有一定的作用。     

株洲城市街区夏日温度分布与街道特征关系的研究

研究了夏日株洲市街道特征与温度分布的关系。结果表明：株洲市夏日白天东西走向街区的温度总比南北走向街区的温度高，平均要高0．6～0．7℃；L/H越小，两者差值越大，最高时达1．4～1．8℃。高大建筑物对于减少街区内的太阳辐射吸收量有相当大的作用。东西走向街区吸收的太阳辐射能不会因街道两边建筑物的高度产生明显变化，但是L／H值太小时，会减慢街区内的散热从而使温度提高，此时增加绿化率产生的降温效果显著；南北走向的街区在L/H较小(0．8)的时候，能大大减少街区吸收的太阳辐射热，有利于降温，但增加绿化率的降温效果不明显。论文的研究结果为株洲市的开发和建设中建筑及绿化的布局和结构调整提供了参考依据。