Use of Akaike information criteria for model selection and inference. An application to assess prevention of gastrointestinal parasitism and respiratory mortality of Guinean goats in Kolda,Senegal

A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg⁻¹, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.

Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.

Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR).     

Factors Associated with Grassland Bird Species Richness: The Relative Roles of Grassland Area, Landscape Structure, and Prey

The factors responsible for widespread declines of grassland birds in the United States are not well understood. This study, conducted in the short-grass prairie of eastern Wyoming, was designed to investigate the relationship between variation in habitat amount, landscape heterogeneity, prey resources, and spatial variation in grassland bird species richness. We estimated bird richness over a 5-year period (1994–1998) from 29 Breeding Bird Survey locations. Estimated bird richness was modeled as a function of landscape structure surrounding survey routes using satellite-based imagery (1996) and grasshopper density and richness, a potentially important prey of grassland birds. Model specification progressed from simple to complex explanations for spatial variation in bird richness. An information-theoretic approach was used to rank and select candidate models. Our best model included measurements of habitat amount, habitat arrangement, landscape matrix, and prey diversity. Grassland bird richness was positively associated with grassland habitat; was negatively associated with habitat dispersion; positively associated with edge habitats; negatively associated with landscape matrix attributes that may restrict movement of grassland bird; and positively related to grasshopper richness. Collectively, 62% of the spatial variation in grassland bird richness was accounted for by the model (adj-R² = 0.514). These results suggest that the distribution of grassland bird species is influenced by a complex mixture of factors that include habitat area affects, landscape pattern and composition, and the availability of prey.     

日本沿海捕鳗笼的网目选择性

1995~2000年在东京湾进行的套网法实验,结果表明:网目尺寸为21·0、18·1、15·5、13·6、11·6mm的笼网目选择率在星康吉鳗全长035·50cm、l>32·50cm、l>27·50cm、l>26·50cm、l>24·00cm时,全长选择率几乎接近于1·00,50%选择全长分别为29·80、26·80、23·00、22·00、20·00cm;选择域为3·80、4·30、3·50、3·00、3·00cm。依据AIC理论,套网和实验网的网目接近时,套网的影响显著;Single curve model所得到的主选择性曲线可更好地反映网目选择性。50%选择相对体周长MGc1·11,选择域为0·52。01·60,选择率趋向于1·00。     

Waterfowl-habitat associations during winter in an urban North Atlantic estuary

Coastal habitats near urban centres in North Atlantic estuaries often support substantial numbers of wintering waterfowl, but little is known of the effects of landscape setting and urbanisation on habitat use. We conducted surveys of waterfowl at 32 wintering sites in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, to identify characteristics that may influence habitat use. Sites were chosen along a gradient of urbanisation and reflected the dominant habitat types used by waterfowl in the Bay. Mean waterfowl abundance was 206.7 ± 209.5 birds per site, and sites in the inner part of the estuary had higher overall waterfowl abundances (r² = 0.40, p = 0.021). Species richness ranged from 3.2 to 13.0 and decreased with increasing hunting activity (r² = 0.36, p = 0.040). Hunting activity and habitat characteristics (e.g., latitude, shoreline configuration, prey density) explained 13-27% of the variation in waterfowl abundance and species richness among sites, but landscape characteristics (e.g., surrounding residential development, vegetated land, or wetland surrounding the sites and the extent of wetland edge) explained an additional 1-26%. The landscape characteristics extent of adjacent residential development and vegetated upland were the most common variables entering into the models; most species were more abundant at sites with more adjacent vegetated upland and less adjacent residential development. Our results suggest that landscape setting may be influencing the distribution of wintering waterfowl, and should be considered when developing strategies for the conservation for these species in urban North Atlantic estuaries.     

Prey and non‐native fish predict the distribution of Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in a south‐western river in North America

Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) has been extirpated from a large portion of its historical range in the Colorado River basin, USA. A repatriation effort via stocking of juvenile P. lucius in the San Juan River, NM, CO and UT has resulted in limited recruitment of individuals into an adult population. Understanding biotic and abiotic factors that limit their persistence in the Colorado River basin will be a critical step in providing for their recovery. To elucidate potential recruitment barriers in the San Juan River, we assessed relationships between the numbers of two age classes of P. lucius and prey, competitors and predators collected at a 1.6 km reach scale between 2003 and 2012. We used an information theoretical approach to rank candidate models testing the relative importance of these biotic conditions in predicting the spatial distribution of P. lucius. We found positive relationships between the numbers of P. lucius ≤200 mm total length (TL) collected and catch per unit effort (CPUE) of native prey among reaches. For P. lucius >200 mm TL (individuals that are likely completely piscivorous), we found positive associations between the numbers of P. lucius collected and CPUE of total prey and CPUE of potential non‐native competitors in each reach. Our data suggest size‐specific affinities of P. lucius for native and non‐native prey as well as the potential for negative interactions between P. lucius and non‐native competitors may contribute to limited recruitment of juvenile P. lucius into an adult population in the San Juan River.     

基于赤池信息准则和人工神经网络的亚热带森林郁闭度遥感估算

以江西省泰和县为研究区,探讨利用Landsat TM影像进行亚热带森林郁闭度森林遥感估算的可行性。首先,利用赤池信息准则(AIC)筛选了用于建模的遥感变量因子,通过模拟试验确定了估算森林郁闭度的前馈神经网络(BP)模型参数,利用检验样本数据验证了模型结果的可靠性。结果表明,遥感变量因子之间存在着强的相关关系,为了保证所建模型的效果需要剔除部分因子,利用BP神经网络建立的森林郁闭度模型的模拟和拟合精度都优于逐步回归模型,研究区内森林郁闭度较高,有47.8%的森林郁闭度大于0.7,但空间差异明显,西部和东部山区森林郁闭度高于中部丘陵森林的郁闭度。     

Retention of native vegetation within the plantation matrix improves its conservation value for a generalist woodpecker

The suitability of plantation monocultures for the conservation of forest animals is an issue under continous debate. The adaptability of forest dwellers and the forest management regime seem to play key roles. In this study, I investigated the habitat selection of a generalist bird, the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), within a pine (Pine spp.) monoculture, as well as the importance of the native habitat features within the pine matrix for the species’ conservation. I compared 52 plots with woodpecker presence against 121 plots where the species was absent, as well as 68 nest-trees against 90 random ones. Regression analyses were used to investigate the habitat attributes involved in the habitat selection. Although the great spotted woodpecker is considered a generalist forest dweller, it shows a marked habitat selection. Based on presence/absence records, the woodpecker prefers well-forested patches with high levels of tree diversity and with good coverage of a secondary species such as the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo). To excavate their nests, woodpeckers select large trees in patches where other trees are also larger, rejecting patches with a high number of small trees. The most striking conclusion from this work is the preference shown for native trees, especially Portuguese oaks (Quercus faginea), as nest-trees. This is noteworthy because native trees are smaller and they are surrounded by smaller trees than pines. These findings support that woodpecker conservation benefits from an increase of habitat heterogeneity, particularly by the retention of native woodland patches within the plantation matrix.     

Finding the appropriate level of complexity for a simulation model: An example with a forest growth model

The topic of model complexity is fundamental to model developers and model users. In this study, we investigate how over- and under-fitting of a driving function in a simulation model influences the predictive ability of the model. Secondly, we investigate whether model selection approaches succeed in selecting driving functions with the best predictive ability. We address these issues through an example with the forest simulator SORTIE-ND. Utilizing maximum likelihood methods and individual tree growth data we parameterize five growth functions of increasing complexity. We then incorporate each growth function into the simulation model SORTIE-ND and test predicted growth against independent data. Compared to the independent data, the simplest and the most complex growth functions had the poorest predictive ability while functions of intermediate complexity had the best predictive ability. The poor predictive ability of the simplest model is caused by poor approximation of the system while the poor predictive ability of the most complex model is caused by biased parameter estimates. A growth function of intermediate complexity was the most parsimonious model where error due to approximation and error due to estimation were simultaneously minimized. The model selection criteria AIC and BIC were found to select complex functions that were over-fitted according to the independent data comparison. BIC was closer to choosing the model that minimized prediction error than AIC. In this example, BIC is the more appropriate model selection criterion. It is important that both model developers and models users remember that more complex models do not always result in better predictive models.     

东海区小黄鱼繁殖模型优化选择及其管理应用研究

根据 1999-2008 年东海区渔业资源底拖网大面定点调查获取的小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)渔业生物学资料,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)与BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion),对小黄鱼的Ricker、Beverton-Holt和Cushing繁殖模型进行了拟合优度检验.针对选择的繁殖模型,经单因子相关分析和逐步回归分析,筛选对繁殖模型有重要影响的环境因子,经模型的拟合和检验,确定东海区小黄鱼的适用繁殖模型.结果表明:3种繁殖模型中,Ricker繁殖模型更适合模拟小黄鱼亲体与补充量关系,但吕泗渔场海域3-4月平均海水表温、7月海水表温和5月长江径流量、7-8月长江平均径流量以及当年夏季风速对模型中的补充量有着重要的影响;优化后的Ricker繁殖模型不仅可以提高东海区小黄鱼亲鱼量与补充量的拟合精度,而且可参考该模型修正当年度小黄鱼的资源管理目标,提高资源管理的科学性.