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1.
土壤保持耕作——全球农业可持续发展优先领域   总被引:11,自引:2,他引:9       下载免费PDF全文
 从农业活动对全球变化以及对农业可持续发展的影响进而导致全球性土壤保持需求的迫切性增加出发,追踪了国外土壤保持耕作领域的研究和发展动态;对中国该领域研究发展现状和研究水平,从时间、深度、方法、生产应用等方面与国外进行了比较分析。中国是一个水土流失和耕地退化严重的农业大国,而从全球统计数字来看,中国土壤保持耕作面积目前仅占全球保持耕作面积的0.2%,仅占全国耕地面积的0.1%, 其现状与中国耕地资源和环境的继续退化以及对土壤保持耕作需求的增加极不相符。加强中国土壤保持耕作系统研究和土壤保持耕作"节能固碳"长期建设不仅对中国而且对全球变化及农业可持续发展具有重大意义。鉴于中国土壤保持耕作领域研究和发展所存在的不足和所面临的更大挑战,以及该领域研究涉及到复杂的农业系统"耕作管理-生物过程-环境变化"相互作用及其系统能流-碳流循环过程,尤其农业生态系统碳汇/源估量尚存在诸多不确定性因素等科学问题,有必要运用综合的系统性研究分析方法,借助国外长期试验和理论研究经验,以及系统模型模拟研究手段等多学科和交叉学科知识,加速提升中国土壤保持耕作领域的科研实力和水平,为实现碳汇/源科学调控管理、减缓农业对温室效应贡献、促进农业可持续发展提供科学依据。  相似文献
2.
Complexity of coupled human and natural systems   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.  相似文献
3.
Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.  相似文献
4.
Synchronizing rock clocks of Earth history   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
Calibration of the geological time scale is achieved by independent radioisotopic and astronomical dating, but these techniques yield discrepancies of approximately 1.0% or more, limiting our ability to reconstruct Earth history. To overcome this fundamental setback, we compared astronomical and 40Ar/39Ar ages of tephras in marine deposits in Morocco to calibrate the age of Fish Canyon sanidine, the most widely used standard in 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. This calibration results in a more precise older age of 28.201 +/- 0.046 million years ago (Ma) and reduces the 40Ar/39Ar method's absolute uncertainty from approximately 2.5 to 0.25%. In addition, this calibration provides tight constraints for the astronomical tuning of pre-Neogene successions, resulting in a mutually consistent age of approximately 65.95 Ma for the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary.  相似文献
5.
On the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions, the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed. We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter. These roughly constrained scenarios provide a "most likely" starting point for refinements in sea-level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics.  相似文献
6.
Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.  相似文献
7.
Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.  相似文献
8.
A major ecosystem shift in the northern Bering Sea   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Until recently, northern Bering Sea ecosystems were characterized by extensive seasonal sea ice cover, high water column and sediment carbon production, and tight pelagic-benthic coupling of organic production. Here, we show that these ecosystems are shifting away from these characteristics. Changes in biological communities are contemporaneous with shifts in regional atmospheric and hydrographic forcing. In the past decade, geographic displacement of marine mammal population distributions has coincided with a reduction of benthic prey populations, an increase in pelagic fish, a reduction in sea ice, and an increase in air and ocean temperatures. These changes now observed on the shallow shelf of the northern Bering Sea should be expected to affect a much broader portion of the Pacific-influenced sector of the Arctic Ocean.  相似文献
9.
Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming, and about 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. The contribution of these smaller glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, in part due to marked thinning and retreat of marine-terminating glaciers associated with a dynamic instability that is generally not considered in mass-balance and climate modeling. This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100.  相似文献
10.
The amount of recycled crust in sources of mantle-derived melts   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Plate tectonic processes introduce basaltic crust (as eclogite) into the peridotitic mantle. The proportions of these two sources in mantle melts are poorly understood. Silica-rich melts formed from eclogite react with peridotite, converting it to olivine-free pyroxenite. Partial melts of this hybrid pyroxenite are higher in nickel and silicon but poorer in manganese, calcium, and magnesium than melts of peridotite. Olivine phenocrysts' compositions record these differences and were used to quantify the contributions of pyroxenite-derived melts in mid-ocean ridge basalts (10 to 30%), ocean island and continental basalts (many >60%), and komatiites (20 to 30%). These results imply involvement of 2 to 20% (up to 28%) of recycled crust in mantle melting.  相似文献
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