Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China

The extreme temperature has more outstanding impact on ecology and water resources in arid regions than the average temperature. Using the downscaled daily temperature data from 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP) models of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP) and the observation data, this paper analyzed the changes in temporal and spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes, i.e., the maximum temperature(Tmax) and minimum temperature(Tmin), in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China over the period 2020–2050 based on the evaluation of preferred Multi-Model Ensemble(MME). Results showed that the Partial Least Square ensemble mean participated by Preferred Models(PM-PLS) was better representing the temporal change and spatial distribution of temperature extremes during 1961–2005 and was chosen to project the future change. In 2020–2050, the increasing rate of Tmax(Tmin) under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 will be 2.0(1.6) times that under RCP4.5, and that of Tmin will be larger than that of Tmax under each corresponding RCP. Tmin will keep contributing more to global warming than Tmax. The spatial distribution characteristics of Tmax and Tmin under the two RCPs will overall the same; but compared to the baseline period(1986–2005), the increments of Tmax and Tmin in plain area will be larger than those in mountainous area. With the emission concentration increased, however, the response of Tmax in mountainous area will be more sensitive than that in plain area, and that of Tmin will be equivalently sensitive in mountainous area and plain area. The impacts induced by Tmin will be universal and farreaching. Results of spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes indicate that large increases in the magnitude of warming in the basin may occur in the future. The projections can provide the scientific basis for water and land plan management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the inland river basin.     

不同施肥处理对马铃薯农田土壤理化性状及产量的影响

为了探究不同施肥处理对马铃薯农田土壤理化性状及产量的影响,试验地采用马铃薯连作模式,设置3个施肥处理,即：单施化肥(T)、有机肥配施化肥(YTF 1/2)、全量有机肥(YTF)。结果表明：在不同施肥处理下马铃薯农田土壤的理化性质和马铃薯产量发生了变化,其中变化最为明显的土壤指标有土壤容重、孔隙度、饱和导水率、有效磷。YTF处理较T处理可分别显著(P<0.05)降低土壤容重16.8%,增加土壤孔隙度12.7%,提升饱和导水率25.3%。YTF处理可显著提升土壤有效磷含量43.0%,但各处理间土壤pH、有机碳、全氮、全磷、碱解氮、速效钾之间差异并未达到显著水平。同时,较之T处理,YTF处理亦可显著提升土壤团聚体含量。YTF和YTF 1/2处理可分别较T处理提升马铃薯产量24.6%和12.8%。因此,施用有机肥不仅可以改善土壤结构,改良土壤物理性状,亦能促产增收。     

从嘉禾屯田到现代水稻发展

水稻农耕的发展推动了人类文明的进步,水稻成为嘉兴最重要的粮食作物。解决好吃饭问题始终是治国理政的头等大事。介绍了嘉兴（嘉禾）屯田的历史和作用,屯田的主要目的是解决军供和民食。简述了嘉兴现代水稻发展的成就及未来粮食发展的重要性,指出了对策。     

酒糟和醋糟营养成分差异及其瘤胃降解特性分析

本试验旨在评价酒糟、醋糟等非常规饲料资源的饲用价值，为酒糟醋糟资源应用于肉牛养殖提供数据参考。试验选用山西不同地区酒糟、醋糟试样5个，试样编号分别为白酒糟、啤酒糟、醋糟1、醋糟2、醋糟3，发酵原料分别为白酒糟（高粱）、啤酒糟（大麦+大米）、醋糟1（高粱+大麦）、醋糟2（大麦+玉米）、醋糟3（高粱+玉米）。通过实验室常规方法测定样品常规营养成分以及利用体外产气法和尼龙袋法评价其饲用价值，同时建立体外法与尼龙袋法测定干物质降解率的回归方程。结果表明：5个样品的干物质（DM）含量为23.25% ~ 42.96%，粗蛋白质（CP）含量分别为啤酒糟（31.84%）>白酒糟（14.58%）>醋糟3（14.40%）>醋糟1（12.21%）>醋糟2（8.46%）。醋糟1的中性洗涤纤维（NDF）、酸性洗涤纤维（ADF）含量均为最高，其次为醋糟2、醋糟3，白酒糟NDF含量最低。啤酒糟的72 h产气量（GP72）显著高于白酒糟（P < 0.05）。体外产气法和尼龙袋法测定的酒糟72 h干物质降解率（IVDMD72、DMD72）显著高于醋糟（P < 0.05）。5个试样的IVDMD72与DMD成正相关，随着降解时间增加其相关性逐渐增加。综上，酒糟的CP含量较高（14.58% ~ 31.84%），醋糟NDF、ADF含量相对较高（59.59% ~ 64.91%，38.78% ~ 54.78%）。结合GP、IVDMD及DMD结果，酒糟消化性能优于醋糟。以IVDMD建立估算DMD的回归公式为DMD72=-19.215+1.645IVDMD72（R2=0.912，P < 0.05）|以IVDMD建立估算DM有效降解率（ED）的回归公式为ED=-12.448+1.045IVDMD72（R2=0.929，P < 0.01）。 [关键词] 醋糟|酒糟|体外产气法|尼龙袋法     

优化水肥与滴头间距组合对日光温室黄瓜生长及产量的影响

为探究水肥耦合+滴头间距对宁夏旱区日光温室春夏茬黄瓜生长、产量、品质和水肥利用率的影响。通过3因素3水平正交试验,利用Logistic方程模拟黄瓜株高变化规律,分析了各时期生长特点;利用极差分析和方差分析,研究了水肥耦合+滴头间距影响主次顺序、显著性及变化趋势,同时结合模糊数学隶属函数法对产量和品质指标进行综合评价,筛选最优组合。结果表明:①不同处理下黄瓜株高“S”形生长过程可分为渐增期、速生期、缓增期3个阶段,可用Logistic方程拟合,且相关系数均高达0.97;②春夏茬日光温室黄瓜在采摘期前3个月产量稳定,分别占总产30.19%、29.22%、28.58%,后1个月急剧下降,占总产12%;③3因素影响产量的顺序为灌水量>施肥浓度>滴头间距,灌水量影响显著,施肥浓度和滴头间距影响不显著,产量最高处理为TR1,达144361 kg/hm²,比最低处理TR9高44.92%。采用模糊隶属函数进行综合评价,TR2表现最好,平均隶属函数值为0.70。确定因素最优水平组合为:灌水量3040.95 m³/hm²、施肥浓度200倍液(740.55 kg/hm²)、滴头间距20 cm,产量为141077.9 kg/hm²。     

何刚德《抚郡农产考略》农业经济思想初探

《抚郡农产考略》是清末江西有代表性的农学著作,不仅保存有抚州地区大量农产种类、栽培与加工技术等资料,还包含了大量的商品经济信息。作者何刚德已经认识到自给自足的自然经济会对生产有束缚作用,他在记载各类农产品时,提出“价值”的概念且用货币价格对其衡量,并深入揭示了农产品上市时间、供求、地理、交通条件等因素对价格的影响,进而寻求增值之道。何氏提倡多种经营,大力种植棉花、烟叶等经济作物,发挥柑橘、甘蔗等名优特产优势,促进农业的商品化生产。他还建议通过深加工的方式获取更高利润,并对未能引进西方的先进加工技术而感到惋惜。《抚郡农产考略》体现了中国近代官僚知识分子对农业经济转型的探索,具有重要的历史价值与现实意义。     

调理剂(微肥)对水稻产量及稻谷中重金属的影响

通过田间小区试验，研究了9种水稻产量和铅、镉的差异，并研究了9种调理剂在水稻不同生长其施用对晚稻产量及稻米重金属的影响。结果表明：（1）泰优398中铅和镉的含量均较低，且均未超标；最优的水稻品种为早丰优华占，其次是泰优398和桃湖优莉晶；（2）调理剂A和钝化剂A作基肥处理后稻谷中铅超标，分别超出了20%和15%；仅有石灰处理的稻谷中铅的含量降低了20%；稻谷中镉均未超标；微肥作基肥施加后稻谷中镉均有不同程度的增加；处理后稻谷产量均有增加，其中调理剂B施加后稻谷产量增加最多，增加了22.42%；石灰施加后理增加3.38%；（3）石灰和硒肥作追肥施加后稻谷中铅的含量均降低88.24%；硅肥、硒肥和铁肥作追肥施加后稻谷中镉分别降低了62.92%、52.81%和44.94%；石灰、铁肥和硒肥施加后稻谷产量降低0.04%、0.14%和5.25%；锌肥和硅肥施加后稻谷产量增加10.08%和0.16%；硅肥和石灰作追肥处理效果最佳。     

不同种植密度对机采辣椒品种性状和产量的影响

为明确不同种植密度对机采辣椒品种性状、产量的影响,以适宜机采的辣椒‘辣研102’为研究对象,设置4个种植密度（P0:38 480株/hm²、P1:51 307株/hm²、P2:76 961株/hm²、P3:102 615株/hm²）,分别于贵阳、遵义两地开展田间小区试验。结果表明,随着种植密度的增加,辣椒株高呈增加趋势,茎粗呈下降趋势。辣椒根部、地上部生物量均在高密植条件下（P3）时达到最小。辣椒的发病率与病情指数均随种植密度的增加而显著提高,高密植处理条件下（P3）达到最大,发病率分别为41.67%（贵阳）、43.33%（遵义）,病情指数分别为31.05%（贵阳）、29.86%（遵义）。过高的种植密度导致单株辣椒光合作用大幅下降:P1、P2、P3处理条件下光合速率分别较P0处理显著降低13.94%、24.73%、29.66%（遵义）;P1、P2、P3处理条件下辣椒叶片蒸腾速率较P0降低10.02%、19.81%、42.12%（贵阳）。辣椒总产量随种植密度增加而显著提高,而商品果产量随种植密度的增加呈先增加后降低的趋势。商品果产量在P1条件下获得最大值,相对于P0、P2、P3贵阳辣椒商品果产量显著提高了16.43%、32.81%、41.67%,遵义提高了20.25%、26.67%、61.02%。综合辣椒生长与商品果产量,贵州机采辣椒‘辣研102’最佳种植密度为51307株/hm²。     

Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

几种不同施肥方式对雷竹产量的影响研究

采用随机区组设计试验,分析对比竹腔施肥、普通施肥和不施肥3种处理对雷竹生长的影响。试验结果表明:竹腔施肥与普通施肥和不施肥比较,出笋数量分别增加12.11%和33.26%,退笋率分别降低3.3%和4.2%,经济收益分别提高14.0%和33.4%,新竹平均胸径分别增加0.25 cm和0.35 cm。综上所述,施肥对产笋量、成竹率、新竹径级和单位面积收益上均有积极的影响作用。不同施肥方式其作用效果为:竹腔施肥>普通施肥>不施肥。