2020年通辽市开鲁县气候影响评价

本文采用统计分析方法，对2020年开鲁县国家基准气候站采集的气温、降水、日照等基本气象要素数据和相应历年值进行对比分析，并对局地大风、暴雪等重大灾害性天气进行综合分析，并根据分析结果，作出气候对生产生活影响的综合评价。结果表明，2020年气候条件对全县农业生产及人们的生活有利有弊。     

奶业产业链纵向价格传导的时滞效应与政策启示

奶业产业链纵向价格传导受阻,导致奶牛养殖长期处于价值链的低增值环节,甚至出现"行业萎缩"现象。本文对上游奶牛养殖成本向下游乳品加工环节价格传导机制进行理论分析,并基于2008年1-12月份奶牛饲养成本和原料奶价格的月度数据,运用有限分布滞后模型测度价格传导的滞后效应。结果表明:饲养成本向下游传导存在显著的滞后性,饲养成本变化1%,滞后5和6期,分别引起原料奶价格变动0.086%、0.111%。奶业价值链体系自身难以实现价格的无阻滞传导以及形成合理的利益分配机制,政府和行业必须推动原料奶生产提高组织化程度,构建价格预警平台,完善产业链各方利益关系。     

Glacier mass balance in High Mountain Asia inferred from a GRACE release-6 gravity solution for the period 2002–2016

We provide estimates of glacier mass changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) area from April2002 to August 2016 by employing a new version of gravity solutions of the Gravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. We find a total mass loss trend of the HMA glaciers at a rateof –22.17 (±1.96) Gt/a. The largest mass loss rates of –7.02 (±0.94) and –6.73 (±0.78) Gt/a are found forthe glaciers in Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas, respectively. Although most glaciers inthe HMA area show a mass loss, we find a small glacier mass gain of 1.19 (±0.55) and 0.77 (±0.37) Gt/a inKarakoram Mountains and Western Kunlun Mountains, respectively. There is also a nearly zero massbalance in Pamirs. Our estimates of glacier mass change trends confirm previous results from the analysisof altimetry data of the ICESat (ICE, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite) and ASTER (AdvancedSpaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) satellites inmost of the selected glacier areas. However, they largely differ to previous GRACE-based studies which weattribute to our different post-processing techniques of the newer GRACE data. In addition, we explicitlyshow regional mass change features for both the interannual glacier mass changes and the 14-a averagedseasonal glacier mass changes. These changes can be explained in parts by total net precipitation (netsnowfall and net rainfall) and net snowfall, but mostly by total net radiation energy when compared to datafrom the ERA5-Land meteorological reanalysis. Moreover, nearly all the non-trend interannual masschanges and most seasonal mass changes can be explained by the total net radiation energy data. The massloss trends could be partly related to a heat effect due to increased net rainfall in Tianshan Mountains, QilianMountains, Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas. Our new results for the glacier mass changein this study could help improve the understanding of glacier variation in the HMA area and contribute tothe study of global change. They could also serve the utilization of water resources there and in neighboringareas.     

Change features of time-series climate variables from 1962 to 2016 in Inner Mongolia,China

Detecting change features of climate variables in arid/semi-arid areas is essential for understanding related climate change patterns and the driving and evolution mechanism between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems.This paper takes Inner Mongolia of China,a unique arid/semi-arid ecosystem,as the study area.We first detected trend features of climate variables using the linear trend analysis method and then detected their trend-shift features using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend method based on the time-series of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature datasets from 1962 to 2016.We analyzed the different change features of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale and in different ecological zones to discover the spatial heterogeneity of change features.The results showed that Inner Mongolia has become warmer-wetter during the past 54 years.The regional annual mean temperature increased 0.4°C per decade with a change rate of 56.2%.The regional annual precipitation increased 0.07 mm per decade with a slightly change rate of about 1.7%,but the trend was not statistically significant.The warmer trend was contributed by the same positive trend in each season,while the wetter trend was contributed by the negative trend of the summer precipitation and the positive trend of the other three seasons.The regional monthly precipitation series had a trend-shift pattern with a structural breakpoint in the year 1999,while the regional monthly mean temperature series showed an increasing trend without a periodical trend-shift.After the year 2000,the warmer-wetter trend of the climate in Inner Mongolia was accelerated.The late 20th century was a key period,because the acceleration of the wetter trend in some local zones(I and II)and the alleviation of the warmer trend in some local zones(Ⅶ,Ⅷand IX)occurred simultaneously.Moreover,the change features had a strong spatial heterogeneity,the southeastern and southwestern of Inner Mongolia went through a warmer-drier trend compared with the other areas.The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the climate change features is a necessary background for various types of research,such as regional climate change,the evolution of arid/semi-arid ecosystems,and the interaction mechanisms between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems based on earth-system models in Inner Mongolia.     

鲁西北一次农业致灾暴雨天气成因分析

为了揭示局地暴雨天气的成因,以期为此类农业灾害性天气的预报预警提供指示,笔者利用常规观测资料、加密自动站资料和多普勒雷达回波资料,对鲁西北地区2012年7月4—5日暴雨天气过程的环流背景、物理量场特征和中小尺度系统进行分析。结果表明:此次暴雨的主要影响系统是高空西风槽、切变线和低空急流;聊城地区水汽通量散度所揭示的强水汽辐合时间与垂直运动发展增强时间没有很好的对应,因此此次强降水时间较短;暴雨落区与强上升运动的发展区域在空间上相关性更好;对流层低层辐合线触发了不稳定能量的释放产生暴雨;此次暴雨过程的局地特点可以用中小尺度系统进行解释,而中小尺度系统的跟踪一定程度上依赖于区域站资料的开发应用;多普勒雷达的强雷达回波单体和阵风锋能较好地解释此次局地暴雨过程,多普勒雷达产品的应用有待进一步深化研究。     

涌泉根灌不同浓度肥液入渗特性及土壤湿润体模型研究

为了研究涌泉根灌肥液入渗特性及湿润体水氮运移的变化规律,在陕北米脂山地微灌枣树示范基地原状土上进行了涌泉根灌肥液入渗试验。结果表明:累积入渗量与入渗时间之间符合Kostiakov幂函数关系(R20.9,P0.01);涌泉根灌入渗能力与增渗效果均随肥液浓度增大而增大;水平湿润锋与竖直湿润锋运移距离均随肥液浓度增大而增大,且均与入渗时间呈显著的幂函数关系,水平方向和竖直方向的湿润锋运移距离的拟合值与实测值的相对误差在–3.84%～5.20%以内。肥液浓度的不同对于湿润体大小略有影响。提出了涌泉根灌肥液入渗湿润体内土壤含水率和NH_4~+-N浓度分布的数学模型,即在一定浓度范围内,单位含水率的变化可引起的肥液浓度变化,且模型的计算精度较高(模拟值与实测值相对误差在10%以内),并符合湿润体内土壤含水率和NH_4~+-N分布规律,可对不同位置处土壤含水率及NH_4~+-N含量进行估算。水分分布情况对肥液浓度条件敏感性较低,NH_4~+-N分布情况对肥液浓度条件敏感性较高。研究可为涌泉根灌水肥高效利用提供参考。     

浑水膜孔灌多向交汇入渗及减渗特性

浑水灌溉是我国黄河流域引黄灌区灌溉的主要特点,其中浑水中的泥沙含量对土壤入渗特性有较大的影响,为揭示浑水膜孔灌交汇入渗的减渗特性,通过开展浑水及清水膜孔灌入渗试验,建立了浑水膜孔灌自由入渗相对于清水的减渗率及浑水膜孔灌多向交汇入渗相对于自由入渗的减渗率与入渗时间之间的量化关系,提出了由清水膜孔灌自由入渗量推求浑水膜孔灌多向交汇入渗量的模型。结果表明:浑水膜孔灌自由入渗较清水的减渗量随入渗时间的延长而增大,但增大幅度慢慢变小,入渗后期其减渗量基本呈线性增加,其减渗率随时间的增大先快速增大后缓慢减小,入渗后期减渗率基本稳定;当入渗产生交汇后,入渗能力明显减小,多向交汇入渗和单向交汇入渗相对自由入渗的减渗率均随入渗时间的增长而增大,多向交汇入渗相对单向交汇入渗也存在减渗作用,3条减渗率曲线的变化率随着时间的增长而逐渐减小。     

多因子问诊1998年和2016年松花江流域夏季降水

为了分析强El nino 衰减年（1998 年和2016 年）松花江流域夏季降水异常成因，提高松花江流域夏季降水预测能力。采用松花江流域97 站逐日降水资料，NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等资料，通过合成分析、相关分析等多种物理诊断方法分析1998 年和2016 年夏季降水异常成因。结果表明：仅仅依靠强El nino 事件的结束时间和强度还不能确定松花江流域夏季降水变化，还需要考虑中高纬环流及其大气内部的自身演变过程，例如东北冷涡的强度和发生时间，欧亚中高纬环流阻高的变化。需要综合考虑海温、副热带系统和中高纬环流系统的异常变化给松花江流域夏季降水带来的影响，从多因子角度诊断和预测松花江流域夏季降水，从而提升预测水平，为气象防灾减灾和农业生产服务提供决策依据。     

1951-2016年长江荆南三口地区旱涝演变与急转特征分析

根据荆南三口地区22个气象站点1951—2016年月降水资料，采用标准化降水指数（SPI）及夏季长周期旱涝急转指数（LDFAI），辅以EOF分析、小波分析、M-K检验等相关分析方法，分析荆南三口地区66年旱涝的变化特征。结果表明：（1）旱涝年际变化较大，20世纪50年代前涝后旱、60—70年代整体干旱、80年代旱涝交替、90年代洪涝、21世纪前涝后旱，且四季均可发生旱涝事件。（2）空间尺度可分为3个区域类型，东南部（湿润区）、中部（降水均匀区）、西北部（偏干区），且季节空间分布上存在较大差异，西北部的五峰、宜昌、荆州等地四季干旱较多，中部的安乡、南县、华容等地四季洪涝较多。（3）年与四季多以5年、10年周期为主，并具有30~35年的长周期。（4）旱涝急转指数在1981年和2015年发生显著变化，而旱涝强度在1972年和2014年发生显著突变。（5）宜昌、石门、澧县等夏季多为旱转涝；五峰、宁乡、安乡、华容、常德等地夏季多为涝转旱。