美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

Study on a soil erosion sampling survey in the Pan-Third Pole region based on higher-resolution images

Soil erosion is one of the most severe global environmental problems, and soil erosion surveys are the scientific basis for planning soil conservation and ecological development. To improve soil erosion sampling survey methods and accurately and rapidly estimate the actual rates of soil erosion, a Pan-Third Pole region was taken as an example to study a methodology of soil erosion sampling survey based on high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. The sampling units were designed using a stratified variable probability systematic sampling method. The spatiotemporal characteristics of soil erosion and conservation were taken into account, and finer-resolution freely available and accessible images in Google Earth were used. Through the visual interpretation of the free high-resolution remote sensing images, detailed information on land use and soil conservation measures was obtained. Then, combined with the regional soil erosion factor data products, such as rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), and slope length and steepness factor (LS), the soil loss rates of some sampling units were calculated. The results show that, based on these high-resolution remote sensing images, the land use and soil conservation measures of the sampling units can be quickly and accurately extracted. The interpretation accuracy in 4 typical cross sections was more than 80%, and sampling accuracy, described by histogram similarity in 11 large sampling sites, show that the landuse of sampling uints can represent the structural characteristics of regional land use. Based on the interpretation of data from the sample survey and the regional soil erosion factor data products, the calculation of the soil erosion rate can be completed quickly. The calculation results can reflect the actual conditions of soil erosion better than the potential soil erosion rates calculated by using the coarse-resolution remote sensing method.     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

基于马尔可夫模型的郑州市土地利用动态变化预测

以郑州市为研究对象，利用1995年、2000年的土地利用现状图，运用GIS技术分析了土地利用动态变化过程以及土地利用各类型之间的相互转化情况。在此基础上，求得研究区土地利用变化的转移矩阵，据此分析郑州市1995—2000年间土地利用动态变化的空间过程。同时运用马尔柯夫模型对2005年和2010年的土地利用动态变化及演变趋势预测进行了分析，得出研究区内耕地进一步增加，林地总面积也在减少，城乡、工矿、居民用地的总量在减小的结论，从而达到全面把握郑州市土地变化规律的目的。     

Numerical Simulation of Berthing Velocity of the Ship

Based on the field data of berthing velocity for the ship (10000t-50000t), the berthing velocities have been numerically simulated by using Monte Carlo method in this paper. After statistical tests, it shows that the maximum values of the berthing velocity follow a Gumber distribution and the probability curves of failure for the means of maximum values are also obtained. The present results have been compared with the ones determined by specification of harbor engineering both at home and abroad.     

A methodology for evaluating a location as a selection site for an international plant breeding program

Summary A method for comparing locations as selection sites based upon their abilities to predict yield and disease reaction over a target region is proposed. The probability of coincidence in selection for a site is defined as the probability for a line selected at the site to be selected at other sites within the region. The probability of divergence in rejection is defined as that associated with regional selection of a line given that is discarded by the site where selection is being conducted. The ideal selection site would maximize the probability of coincidence in selection and minimize the probability of divergence in rejection. The method is illustrated using a set of data from the rice yield nurseries of the International Rice Testing Program for Latin America planted under the rainfed conditions of Central América and México during the period 1978–1984. Five locations were compared for their predictive ability in selecting for the rainfed rice growing region, based on yield and disease reaction. Selection for yield was defined as performance superior to the best check in each location. Selection for disease reaction was based on an index derived from the Standard Evaluation System for Rice for diseases of regional importance. Locations varies 10–15 percent in their selection coincidence with the region for both yield and disease selection criteria applied independently.     

MEASURING PROBABILITY OF SKY BRIGHTNESS IN CLASSIFICATION BY THE AVERAGE INSOLATION

According to the daily change law from curves for percentage insolation,this paper presents a new formula of the average insolation in the zones where the insolation is more than 70%. By means of the hourly observing data during two years for solar direct ratiation, cloudage and sunshine condition in seven zones different lighting climate,considering the vaper pressure and the altitude present the function of percentage insolation and the probability of four sky brightness classification,this formula has a certain precision to be proved by observation.     

A robust set of black walnut microsatellites for parentage and clonal identification

We describe the development of a robust and powerful suite of 12 microsatellite marker loci for use in genetic investigations of black walnut and related species. These 12 loci were chosen from a set of 17 candidate loci used to genotype 222 trees sampled from a 38-year-old black walnut progeny test. The 222 genotypes represent a sampling from the broad geographic distribution of the species. Analysis of the samples using the 12 loci revealed an average expected heterozygosity of 0.83, a combined probability of identity of 3×10⁻¹⁹, and a combined probability of exclusion for paternity analysis of >0.999. The 222 genotyped trees from the progeny test comprised 39 open-pollinated families, 29 of which (having at least five sampled progeny) were used to estimate the outcrossing rate for the progeny trial. The same 29 families were used to construct a Neighbor-Joining dendrogram based upon allele sharing between individuals. The multilocus estimate of the outcrossing rate was 100% (standard error of zero), higher than the 90% level found in previous studies at the embryo stage, suggesting that both artificial and natural selection against selfs may have occurred over the 38-year lifespan of the progeny trial. In the Neighbor-Joining dendrogram, the majority of the putative siblings grouped together in 21 out of the 29 families, showing that the microsatellites were able to discern most of the family structure in the dataset. Our results indicate that errors were sometimes committed during the establishment of the progeny test. This set of microsatellite loci clearly provides a powerful tool for future applications in black walnut.     

Economic evaluation of forest drainage and fertilization in northern Ontario peatlands with an investment decision model

Drainage and fertilization of an existing peatland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stand and 24 possible methods of planting a clear-cut area near Cochrane, Ontario were evaluated by means of a recently developed forestry investment decision model, FIDME.Results indicate that, on the basis of the cost estimates used and assumptions made, drainage of the existing stand is the most economical treatment if it can reduce the rotation age by 30 years or more. Drainage combined with fertilization is the second best alternative if this treatment can reduce the rotation age by 40 years or more. Fertilization of the undrained site ranks a distant third, and then only if it reduces the rotation age by 10 years; otherwise, it will be uneconomical to apply.In the case of the clear-cut area, planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared but undrained site without weed control ranked first among the 24 alternatives considered; the same treatment, but with weed control included, ranked second. Planting containerized seedlings on a mechanically prepared but undrained site with weed control ranked third, followed by planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared and drained site with weed control. In contrast, planting containerized seedlings on an unprepared site and with no weed control ranked as the least cost-effective method considered.