河南卫河流域脆弱性评价

结合卫河自身特点和地理环境建立13项指标体系,运用基于熵权的模糊数学模型对其脆弱性进行评价。结果表明,鹤壁的脆弱性为0.69,焦作为0.55,新乡为0.39,安阳为0.36,濮阳为0.23。最后针对评价结果分析了原因,提出了合理性建议和措施。     

郑州市“九五滩”水源地脆弱性评价

以郑州市“九五滩”水源地为例，在分析水源地供水安全的各种影响因素的基础上，建立了水源地脆弱性评价的数学模型，采用层次分析法对“九五滩”水源地进行脆弱性评价，从水质和水量两个方面进行研究得出各个影响因子的权重，对“九五滩”水源地的脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：脆弱性主要表现在森林覆盖率、污水处理率等方面。进而提出一系列的水源地脆弱性保护措施。     

基于自然灾害的农村贫困效应研究——以广西西南TL村的水灾调查为例

采取偶遇抽样的方法对TL村的贫困户与非贫困户进行了问卷调查,调查了2008年9月的水灾对该村贫困户与非贫困户的生计资产的影响。结果表明:贫困户的受教育水平和健康状况较差;耕地拥有量及作物面积少;房屋质量差;存款少、金融借贷能力低下;通过个人社会关系获取帮助的能力低下。     

Determining the vulnerability of Mexican pine forests to bark beetles of the genus Dendroctonus Erichson (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Bark beetles of the genus Dendroctonus are natural inhabitants of forests; under particular conditions some species of this genus can cause large-scale tree mortality. However, only in recent decades has priority been given to the comprehensive study of these insects in México. México possesses high ecological diversity in Dendroctonus–Pinus associations. The geographic coexistence of 12 Dendroctonus species suggests greater vulnerability or threat of tree mortality relative to other areas. We use a biogeographic strategy to identify and rank the areas most vulnerable to tree mortality caused by bark beetles in México. We aim to define the areas that might experience high impact by these insects and also to provide a geographic database useful to forest resource management and conservation policies in México. Using collection records of bark beetles and pines, we develop a quantitative estimate of the threat of beetle infestation of forest areas based on factors including pine and beetle species density, host preference and level of mortality caused by beetle species. A quantitative estimate of forest area vulnerability, the Bark Beetle Threat Index (BBTI) was calculated. Despite the vast area of geographic coincidence of Pinus and Dendroctonus in México, the regions of highest bark beetle pressure are restricted to small zones within some mountain systems. The region that has been most affected by this insect group during the past hundred years is the Transverse Volcanic Belt, followed by the Sierra Madre Occidental and Sierra Madre del Sur. Pine diversity is the major determining factor of BBTI at the regional level, while disturbances from extensive logging and ecosystem change are the key factors behind high BBTIs at the local level.     

农业气候变化脆弱性评价研究进展

阐述了农业气候脆弱性的概念和研究对象,回顾了农业气候脆弱性理论的发展,在该基础上详细地介绍了目前农业气候脆弱性的评价方法,讨论了评价方法的优缺点,指出了当前该领域研究中存在的不足,探讨了该研究以后的发展方向,并对农业气候脆弱性评价作了简单的总结。     

Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: An assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework

The achievement of sustainable forest management requires the incorporation of risk and uncertainty into long-term planning. Climatic change will have significant impacts on natural disturbances, species and ecosystems, particularly on landscapes influenced by forest management. Understanding where vulnerabilities lie is important in managing the risks associated directly or indirectly with climatic change. The vulnerability of landscapes to natural disturbances, the resilience of ecosystems and distribution of species are all important components that need to be considered when undertaking forest planning, but climatic change is rarely factored into such planning. In this study, the vulnerability of fire potential, fire regimes, ecosystems and species to climatic change was modelled for a 145,000 ha landscape in the south-central interior of British Columbia, Canada. The results from these analyses were used to guide forest zoning, using the triad zoning framework, and for the development of a “climate-smart” management framework. The use of climate-smart management is advocated as a decision-making framework for managing forested landscapes based on an understanding of landscape vulnerability to future climatic change. From this understanding, the maintenance of ecosystem health and vitality could be achieved.     

Effectiveness of protected areas in north-eastern New South Wales: recent trends in six measures

We applied six measures of effectiveness to recent decisions about additional conservation areas in north-eastern New South Wales. Three have been widely used previously: (1) number of conservation areas; (2) total extent of conservation areas; and (3) representativeness (the proportion of natural features such as forest types or animal species represented in conservation areas to some targeted level). The other measures were: (4) efficiency or representation bias (the extent to which some features are protected above target levels at the expense of others that remain poorly protected); (5) relative protection of vulnerable areas within public land (percentage protection of flat, fertile areas relative to that of steep and/or infertile areas); and (6) relative protection of vulnerable areas across all tenures (the correlation between the amount of protection given to features and their vulnerabilities to clearing). We applied the measures in two chronological comparisons: the reserve system in 1994, 1996 and 1997; and before and after the Interim Assessment Process of 1996 which involved negotiations over new reserves and extensive unreserved areas that were temporarily deferred from logging. Over the study period, despite expansion of formal conservation and progress towards quantitative conservation targets, gazetted reserves remained strongly biased to the steep and/or infertile parts of public lands. Both gazetted reserves and areas deferred from logging increased the bias in protection away from forest types most vulnerable to clearing and for which regional conservation targets had already been most compromised. Two major challenges for future conservation decisions in the region are common to conservation planning generally: (1) to focus protection within public tenure on habitats and species most vulnerable to threatening processes such as logging; and (2) to provide more effective conservation management on private lands where loss of native vegetation continues.     

鄱阳湖生态经济区经济系统脆弱性评价

从区域经济系统面对内外干扰的敏感性和应对能力两方面建立鄱阳湖生态经济区经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用集对分析方法对区域经济系统脆弱性内部差异进行评价研究。结果表明:不同行政单元经济系统脆弱性程度差异较大;应对能力的差异是影响区内各县市经济系统脆弱性分异的主要因素;根据脆弱性特征差异进行分类,南昌市属低敏感性、高应对能力型,九江市属高敏感性、高应对能力型,九江县、星子县、永修县、湖口县、都昌县、瑞昌县、德安县、武宁县、彭泽县、乐平市、东乡县、丰城市和高安市属高敏感性、低应对能力型,其他县市属低敏感性、低应对能力型。     

湘中丘陵盆地区农业生态环境脆弱性评价——以衡阳盆地为例

[目的]对湘中丘陵盆地区的农业生态环境脆弱性进行评价。[方法]以衡阳盆地为例,构建了湘中丘陵盆地区农业生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系,从自然、社会、经济子系统中选取13个评价指标。然后,采用主成分分析法计算各评价指标的权重,进而计算出各县域农业生态环境脆弱度,分析研究区农业生态环境脆弱性强度及其空间分布规律。[结果]农民人均纯收入的权重值最大,为0.140,其次是森林覆盖率(0.137)。研究区农业生态环境以中度脆弱为主,衡南县的脆弱度最大,衡阳县次之,均为强度脆弱区;耒阳市的脆弱度最小,为微度脆弱区。研究区农业生态环境脆弱性呈现出外围低、中间高的趋势。[结论]该研究为农业生态环境的恢复、重建与农业生产决策的制定提供了科学依据。     

Livelihood change,farming, and managing flood risk in the Lerma Valley,Mexico

In face of rising flood losses globally, the approach of “living with floods,” rather than relying on structural measures for flood control and prevention, is acquiring greater resonance in diverse socioeconomic contexts. In the Lerma Valley in the state of Mexico, rapid industrialization, population growth, and the declining value of agricultural products are driving livelihood and land use change, exposing increasing numbers of people to flooding. However, data collected in two case studies of farm communities affected by flooding in 2003 illustrate that the concept of flood as agricultural “hazard” has been relatively recently constructed through public intervention in river management and disaster compensation. While farming still represents subsistence value to rural households, increasingly rural communities are relying on non-farm income and alternative livelihood strategies. In this context, defining flooding in rural areas as a private hazard for which individuals are entitled to public protection may be counterproductive. A different approach, in which farmers’ long acceptance of periodic flooding is combined with valuing agricultural land for ecoservices, may enable a more sustainable future for the region’s population.