中国西北三省(区)风雪流发生的可能性

[目的]揭示新疆、内蒙古和甘肃西北3省(区)风雪流发生的可能性,为风雪灾害防治提供理论依据。[方法]利用1981—2010年3省(区)130个区站地面气象资料,划分风雪流发生可能性等级。[结果](1)研究区65.4%的地区有发生风雪流灾害的可能性,其中16.9%的地区发生风雪流可能性的等级较高;(2)研究区风雪流灾害最严重的月份为3和12月,少数地区受地形影响有所差异;(3)研究区30a间气象数据在一定范围内波动,风雪灾害发生可能性没有减弱趋势。[结论]西北3省(区)需重视风雪灾害防治,尤其是3和12月应重点防护;同时要加强生态修复工作,降低风雪灾害。     

A probability model for root and butt rot in Picea abies derived from Norwegian national forest inventory data

Root rot in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) causes substantial economic losses to the forestry sector. In this study, we developed a probability model for decay at breast height utilizing 18,141 increment cores sampled on temporary plots of the Norwegian National Forest Inventory. The final model showed a good fit to the data and retained significant relationships between decay and a suite of tree, stand and site variables, including diameter at breast height, stand age, altitude, growing season temperature sum (threshold 5°C), and vegetation type. By comparing model predictions with recorded decay at stump height in an independent data set, we estimated a proportionality function to adjust for the inherent underestimation of total rot that will be obtained by applying a probability model derived from increment cores sampled at breast height. We conclude that the developed model is appropriate for national and regional scenario analyses in Norway, and could also be useful as a tool for operational forestry planning. This would however require further testing on independent data, to assess how well the new model predicts decay at local scales.     

基于1961—2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征评估

干旱是一个缓慢发展持续时间长的极端气候事件，而气候变化对干旱的影响尤为显著，评估气候变化对云南省干旱特征的影响尤为重要。使用多时间尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准降水蒸散指数（SPEI）分析了云南省的干旱状况，运用非超越概率和游程理论分别分析了SPI和SPEI的季节性变化和研究区域内的干旱特征。结果表明：1961—1995年冬季SPEI(1)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率为5.2%，但在2066—2100年增加到18.4%；SPEI(6)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率从4.4%增加到21.4%，SPEI(24)从7.0%增加到25.7%。表明由于气候变化，未来有可能发生严重干旱，且中长期干旱比短期干旱更严重。气候变化在1961—1995年和2066—2100年的冬季和夏季造成严重干旱，且中长期干旱严重程度在整个冬季和夏季尤为明显。将SPI和SPEI的时间序列应用于游程理论，发现1961—1995年SPEI(1)的干旱烈度为28.3，到2066—2100年达到60.9，表明气候变化使未来干旱加剧。本研究结果对云南省干旱预测、评估及其风险管理和应用决策具有指导性和实用性，同时可为未来旱作农业生态管理提供一定的依据。     

基于马尔科夫模型的大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化趋势研究

本文通过对大凌河流域2010年、2013年和2016年三期遥感影像进行分类,得到流域土地利用分布现状。对分类结果进行叠加分析可以获得大凌河流域2010~2013年的地类转移概率矩阵,再运用马尔科夫原理预测出2016年流域土地利用分布情况,将其与实际情况对比分析,证明马尔科夫模型适用于大凌河流域未来土地利用/覆被变化趋势的预测。进而本文分别对大凌河流域2019年、2022年和2025年的土地利用情况进行预测,发现未来近10年流域建设用地面积持续增长,变化率为38.96%;农林用地面积从2016年开始减少,总体下降了0.77%;水域面积稳定增长,到2022年之后趋于稳定值,变化率为17.21%;旱地及其他未利用地面积继续缩减,到2019年开始趋于稳定,整体下降了1.71%。研究结果明晰了大凌河流域农林用地和建设用地之间的矛盾,可以为流域水土资源管理有关部门提供科学依据。     

带借贷利率和干扰的双Poisson-Geometric风险过程模型

考虑了带借贷利率及干扰的双复合Poisson-Geometric风险过程,借助全期望公式、微分和伊藤积分等知识,并综合引起破产的原因得到无限时破产概率积分微分方程和有限时破产概率的积分偏微分方程.     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

Economic evaluation of forest drainage and fertilization in northern Ontario peatlands with an investment decision model

Drainage and fertilization of an existing peatland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stand and 24 possible methods of planting a clear-cut area near Cochrane, Ontario were evaluated by means of a recently developed forestry investment decision model, FIDME.Results indicate that, on the basis of the cost estimates used and assumptions made, drainage of the existing stand is the most economical treatment if it can reduce the rotation age by 30 years or more. Drainage combined with fertilization is the second best alternative if this treatment can reduce the rotation age by 40 years or more. Fertilization of the undrained site ranks a distant third, and then only if it reduces the rotation age by 10 years; otherwise, it will be uneconomical to apply.In the case of the clear-cut area, planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared but undrained site without weed control ranked first among the 24 alternatives considered; the same treatment, but with weed control included, ranked second. Planting containerized seedlings on a mechanically prepared but undrained site with weed control ranked third, followed by planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared and drained site with weed control. In contrast, planting containerized seedlings on an unprepared site and with no weed control ranked as the least cost-effective method considered.     

八个竹种海涂引种试验报告

本文从土壤含盐量着手对八个竹种在引种成活率、新竹抽发数及其质量、角竹笋产量等方面进行了较系统的研究。结果表明,土壤盐分影响竹子的生长发育,此影响一般随含盐量的增加而增加;不同竹种对土壤盐分的适应能力不同;角竹笋能获得高产,单产达20800kg/ha。参照产地母竹和引种地新竹的生长情况,我们建议:海涂地区发展竹子时可选用角竹、桂竹和红竹。     

黄河兰州段多环芳烃生态风险的初步评价

以黄河兰州段11个不同采样点3种多环芳烃的临测浓度及其对6～38种水生生物的LC50为基础资料,分别应用商值法、概率密度函数重叠面积和联合概率曲线3种风险浮价方法对黄河兰州段苯并(a)芘、荧蒽、芘的生态风险进行了评价.结果表明:黄河兰州段3种PAHs残留具有一定的生态风险.其中低暴露风险条件下(受威胁生物不超过1%),...     

A robust set of black walnut microsatellites for parentage and clonal identification

We describe the development of a robust and powerful suite of 12 microsatellite marker loci for use in genetic investigations of black walnut and related species. These 12 loci were chosen from a set of 17 candidate loci used to genotype 222 trees sampled from a 38-year-old black walnut progeny test. The 222 genotypes represent a sampling from the broad geographic distribution of the species. Analysis of the samples using the 12 loci revealed an average expected heterozygosity of 0.83, a combined probability of identity of 3×10⁻¹⁹, and a combined probability of exclusion for paternity analysis of >0.999. The 222 genotyped trees from the progeny test comprised 39 open-pollinated families, 29 of which (having at least five sampled progeny) were used to estimate the outcrossing rate for the progeny trial. The same 29 families were used to construct a Neighbor-Joining dendrogram based upon allele sharing between individuals. The multilocus estimate of the outcrossing rate was 100% (standard error of zero), higher than the 90% level found in previous studies at the embryo stage, suggesting that both artificial and natural selection against selfs may have occurred over the 38-year lifespan of the progeny trial. In the Neighbor-Joining dendrogram, the majority of the putative siblings grouped together in 21 out of the 29 families, showing that the microsatellites were able to discern most of the family structure in the dataset. Our results indicate that errors were sometimes committed during the establishment of the progeny test. This set of microsatellite loci clearly provides a powerful tool for future applications in black walnut.