Projecting future habitat quality of three midwestern reservoir fishes under warming conditions

Rising temperatures caused by climate change are likely to affect cool‐water and warm‐water fishes differently. Yet, forecasts of anticipated temperature effects on fishes of different thermal guilds are lacking, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Towards this end, we used spatially explicit, growth rate potential (GRP) models to project changes in seasonal habitat quality for a warm‐water piscivore (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides), a cool‐water piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus) and a hybrid piscivore (saugeye S. vitreus × S. canadensis) in two Midwestern reservoirs. We assessed habitat quality for two periods (early and middle 21st century) under two realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a mid‐century emissions peak and a rapid continuous increase in emissions). Largemouth bass were projected to experience enhanced or slightly reduced habitat during all seasons, and throughout the mid‐21st century. By contrast, walleye habitat was projected to decline with anticipated warming, except during the spring in the smaller of our two study reservoirs and during the fall in the larger of our two study reservoirs. Saugeye habitat was projected to either increase modestly or decline slightly during the spring and fall and declines in habitat quality and quantity that were smaller than those for walleye were identified during summer. Collectively, our findings indicate that climate warming will differentially alter habitat suitability for reservoir piscivores, favouring warm‐water species over cool‐water species. We expect these changes in habitat quality to impact the dynamics of reservoir fish populations to varying degrees necessitating the consideration of climate when making future management decisions.     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

Weed seedling emergence in contrasting fodder crop systems following 30 years of cultivation in the lowlands of Northern Italy

Five fodder crop systems of different intensity (ranging from a double annual crop of Italian ryegrass + silage maize to a permanent meadow) were adopted for 30 years in the lowlands of Northern Italy under two input levels, differing mainly in their provision of organic fertiliser (manure). Herbicides were used in the maize crops included in all systems, except the meadow. After 30 years, the weed seedbank of all systems and input levels were assessed by the seedling emergence technique on soil samples from each plot. The cropping systems determined the abundance and composition of the weed assembly. Relatively few, frequent species made up the majority of the emerged seedlings in all systems, and there was no relationship between the total number of emerged seedlings and the mean number of species recorded in the different systems. Arabidopsis thaliana and Oxalis corniculata were abundant in the annual double crop and in the 3- and 6-year rotations that also comprised the annual double crop. These weeds, however, were unlikely to represent a major threat to the crops, due to their vigour and growth period. The permanent meadow tended to greater weed biodiversity than the other systems. The application of manure favoured the seedbank of species such as Lolium multiflorum, Digitaria sanguinalis and A. thaliana. Weed communities in the different systems were mainly determined by herbicide application, (through the ability of weeds to avoid its effects, determined by the weed life history and emergence period) and manure application (with its possible dual effect of spreading weed seeds and favouring nitrogen-responsive weeds).     

不同播期对黄秋葵长势、抗病性和产量的影响

为在河北省推广种植黄秋葵,在安国、保定、邯郸、衡水和石家庄5个试验点进行黄秋葵分期播种试验,研究了不同播期对石秋葵1号、红玉和五福3个品种生长势、抗病性和产量的影响。结果表明:播期对石秋葵1号、红玉和五福生长势、抗病性和产量具有较大的影响,随着播期的推迟,3个品种的茎粗大致呈逐渐增高的趋势,株高呈先降后升的趋势(除2018年的红玉外),单株结果数则先增加后减少,单果质量(除五福外)逐渐增大;以4月20日、25日和30日为播期,得到的黄秋葵单株产量和折合667 m~2产量较高。综合得出,河北省黄秋葵种植以4月20日、25日、30日为播期最为适宜。     

基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

基于中国820个气象站点数据、灰茶尺蠖已知地理分布资料和生物学数据,结合CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS软件模拟预测灰茶尺蠖在中国目前及未来的潜在分布范围,评估灰茶尺蠖的潜在分布范围及气候变暖对其分布的潜在影响。结果表明,灰茶尺蠖在中国目前的适生区主要分布在3°51′N~40°6′N,适生区面积占全国总面积的34.27%。中国大部分省份的气候条件均适合灰茶尺蠖种群生长。随着气候的变化,灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区面积总体增幅不大,但其组成变化较大。至2050年,预测灰茶尺蠖高度适生区面积占比达最大（22.23%）。相比各种能源之间的平衡情景（A1B）,较高能源需求情景（A2）下灰茶尺蠖在陕甘宁地区向内陆扩张更快。灰茶尺蠖在中国适生区分布广泛,应加强灰茶尺蠖预测预报,趁早采取防控措施,以保障茶叶优质安全生产。     

我国典型茶区化学氮肥施用与生产运输过程的温室气体排放量估算

基于相关统计数据和文献调研方法,估算了我国14个典型茶区中化学氮肥施用、生产及运输过程中的温室气体排放量。结果表明,化学氮肥施用导致的土壤N₂O直接排放和生产过程中的温室气体排放是茶园化学氮肥消费带来的温室气体主要排放源;14个典型茶区消费的化学氮肥产生的温室气体排放量(以CO₂排放当量计算)为16.81~344.80万t·a^-1,其中贵州、云南、湖北和四川4省的茶园消费的化学氮肥带来的温室气体排放量较高,均超过200万t·a^-1,占全部区域温室气体排放量的59.98%;单位面积温室气体排放量为3.22~9.76 t·hm^-2·a^-1,单位产量温室气体排放量为2.10~12.96 t·t^-1·a^-1、单位产值温室气体排放量0.39~1.90 t·万元^-1·a^-1;总体而言,贵州、云南、湖北、湖南和四川5省的茶园消费的化学氮肥带来的温室气体排放量、单位面积温室气体排放量、单位产量温室气体排放量和单位产值温室气体排放量较高,福建、河南省及重庆市3个茶区相对较低。在茶园化学氮肥施用量控制为300 kg·hm^-2和450 kg·hm^-2两种情景下,茶园生态系统温室气体减排总量为617.07万t·a^-1和228.94万t·a^-1,减排潜力为34.12%和12.66%,减排潜力较大的区域主要有湖北、四川、贵州、湖南和江西等5省。     

武威市畜禽粪污土地承载潜力分析

为评估武威市畜禽养殖粪污土地承载潜力,本文按照以地定畜、种养平衡的原则,从畜禽粪污养分供给和土壤粪肥养分需求的角度出发,科学测算了武威市近三年畜禽粪污养分供给量和本区域植物粪肥养分需求量,分析武威市各县区畜禽粪污土地理论承载力和实际承载力差距,推算出潜在承载力,为政府决策、部门制定畜牧业发展规划提供依据。     

秸秆还田深度对土壤温室气体排放及玉米产量的影响

【目的】秸秆还田是培肥地力、增加土壤有机质和改善土壤结构的重要技术手段,但以往的研究表明秸秆还田会加速土壤温室气体的排放。本研究通过对秸秆不同还田深度下农田土壤温室气体排放特征和产量的研究,明确降低温室气体排放量的最佳还田深度,以期为合理利用秸秆、提高作物产量,实现农业可持续发展提供科学依据。【方法】采用大田微区试验,以玉米为供试作物,设置4个还田深度,采用静态箱-气相色谱法测定整个玉米生长季不同还田深度下温室气体（CO₂、CH₄、N₂O）的排放特征,产量及产量构成因素。试验共设5个处理,还田深度分别为0—10 cm（T1）、10—20 cm（T2）、20—30 cm（T3）和30—40 cm（T4）,同时以不还田处理作为对照（CK）。【结果】（1）在整个玉米生长季CO₂和N₂O均表现为排放,CH₄表现为吸收。CO₂累积排放量为T3处理最高,较CK显著增加了28.6%,T4处理增加最少,较CK显著增加了17.1%（P<0.05）,但T1与T4处理之间差异不显著;而N₂O的累积排放量T2处理为最高,与CK相比,累积排放量显著增加111.3%,T4处理增加最少,与CK相比显著增加了12.8%（P<0.05）;CH₄则表现为吸收,且秸秆还田后降低了农田土壤对CH₄的吸收能力,吸收量表现为CK处理>T4处理>T3处理>T1处理>T2处理,且各还田处理与CK之间差异显著（P<0.05）。（2）秸秆不同还田深度下,与对照相比,各处理玉米产量均显著增加,增产在5.6%—20.8%（P<0.05）,但各处理之间的穗长、穗粗和行粒数差异不显著。当秸秆还至30—40 cm时,产量最高,较CK增加了20.8%,表明秸秆还田对提升土壤肥力及作物增产有重要作用。（3）从温室气体综合增温潜势（GWP）和温室气体排放强度（GHGI）来看,在100年尺度上,GWP表现为T2处理>T3处理>T1处理>T4处理>CK处理,而GHGI表现为T2处理>T3处理>T1处理>CK处理>T4处理,表明与CK相比,各处理均增加了玉米季温室气体的综合增温潜势,而T4处理则降低了玉米季温室气体排放强度,说明秸秆深还至30—40 cm可在一定程度上缓解全球增温潜势。【结论】秸秆还田会显著增加CO₂和N₂O排放,降低对CH₄的吸收能力;秸秆深还至30—40 cm可相对降低综合增温潜势,降低温室气体排放强度,同时显著增加玉米产量。因此,为实现较高的玉米产量和较低的温室气体排放强度,秸秆深还至30—40 cm是较为合理的土壤改良培肥方式。     

不同地下水埋深土壤水分入渗规律研究

【目的】分析农田土水势的分布对作物的生长状况和农田水分循环的影响。【方法】采用观测室内层状长土柱(土柱长L=335 cm)在上边界条件为薄层积水、下边界控制不同地下水埋深时的水分入渗及蒸发过程的试验,分析了不同地下水埋深时土水势与零通量面的变化特征。【结果】入渗率随时间总的变化趋势是减小,入渗率随时间的变化一般经历3个阶段:迅速减小、缓慢减小和稳定阶段;累积入渗量随时间增加,与时间呈幂拟合关系;入渗初始阶段湿润锋运移速率较快,之后随着时间的推移,湿润锋运移速率逐渐减小,至某一时间后趋于稳定。【结论】湿润锋运移距离与时间的平方根呈线性关系