2020年通辽市开鲁县气候影响评价

本文采用统计分析方法，对2020年开鲁县国家基准气候站采集的气温、降水、日照等基本气象要素数据和相应历年值进行对比分析，并对局地大风、暴雪等重大灾害性天气进行综合分析，并根据分析结果，作出气候对生产生活影响的综合评价。结果表明，2020年气候条件对全县农业生产及人们的生活有利有弊。     

Glacier mass balance in High Mountain Asia inferred from a GRACE release-6 gravity solution for the period 2002–2016

We provide estimates of glacier mass changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) area from April2002 to August 2016 by employing a new version of gravity solutions of the Gravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. We find a total mass loss trend of the HMA glaciers at a rateof –22.17 (±1.96) Gt/a. The largest mass loss rates of –7.02 (±0.94) and –6.73 (±0.78) Gt/a are found forthe glaciers in Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas, respectively. Although most glaciers inthe HMA area show a mass loss, we find a small glacier mass gain of 1.19 (±0.55) and 0.77 (±0.37) Gt/a inKarakoram Mountains and Western Kunlun Mountains, respectively. There is also a nearly zero massbalance in Pamirs. Our estimates of glacier mass change trends confirm previous results from the analysisof altimetry data of the ICESat (ICE, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite) and ASTER (AdvancedSpaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) satellites inmost of the selected glacier areas. However, they largely differ to previous GRACE-based studies which weattribute to our different post-processing techniques of the newer GRACE data. In addition, we explicitlyshow regional mass change features for both the interannual glacier mass changes and the 14-a averagedseasonal glacier mass changes. These changes can be explained in parts by total net precipitation (netsnowfall and net rainfall) and net snowfall, but mostly by total net radiation energy when compared to datafrom the ERA5-Land meteorological reanalysis. Moreover, nearly all the non-trend interannual masschanges and most seasonal mass changes can be explained by the total net radiation energy data. The massloss trends could be partly related to a heat effect due to increased net rainfall in Tianshan Mountains, QilianMountains, Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas. Our new results for the glacier mass changein this study could help improve the understanding of glacier variation in the HMA area and contribute tothe study of global change. They could also serve the utilization of water resources there and in neighboringareas.     

Change features of time-series climate variables from 1962 to 2016 in Inner Mongolia,China

Detecting change features of climate variables in arid/semi-arid areas is essential for understanding related climate change patterns and the driving and evolution mechanism between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems.This paper takes Inner Mongolia of China,a unique arid/semi-arid ecosystem,as the study area.We first detected trend features of climate variables using the linear trend analysis method and then detected their trend-shift features using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend method based on the time-series of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature datasets from 1962 to 2016.We analyzed the different change features of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale and in different ecological zones to discover the spatial heterogeneity of change features.The results showed that Inner Mongolia has become warmer-wetter during the past 54 years.The regional annual mean temperature increased 0.4°C per decade with a change rate of 56.2%.The regional annual precipitation increased 0.07 mm per decade with a slightly change rate of about 1.7%,but the trend was not statistically significant.The warmer trend was contributed by the same positive trend in each season,while the wetter trend was contributed by the negative trend of the summer precipitation and the positive trend of the other three seasons.The regional monthly precipitation series had a trend-shift pattern with a structural breakpoint in the year 1999,while the regional monthly mean temperature series showed an increasing trend without a periodical trend-shift.After the year 2000,the warmer-wetter trend of the climate in Inner Mongolia was accelerated.The late 20th century was a key period,because the acceleration of the wetter trend in some local zones(I and II)and the alleviation of the warmer trend in some local zones(Ⅶ,Ⅷand IX)occurred simultaneously.Moreover,the change features had a strong spatial heterogeneity,the southeastern and southwestern of Inner Mongolia went through a warmer-drier trend compared with the other areas.The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the climate change features is a necessary background for various types of research,such as regional climate change,the evolution of arid/semi-arid ecosystems,and the interaction mechanisms between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems based on earth-system models in Inner Mongolia.     

中国三大自然区域紫花苜蓿土壤速效钾丰缺指标和推荐施钾量

为给内蒙古高原区、黄土高原区和西北荒漠绿洲区紫花苜蓿测土施肥奠定科学基础,采用零散实验数据整合法以及养分平衡-地力差减法,开展了三大自然区域紫花苜蓿土壤速效钾丰缺指标和推荐施钾量研究。结果表明,内蒙古高原区紫花苜蓿土壤速效钾第1~4级指标依次为≥342mg/kg、89~342mg/kg、24~89mg/kg和<24mg/kg,黄土高原区第1~6级指标依次为≥171mg/kg、96~171mg/kg、54~96mg/kg、30~54mg/kg、17~30mg/kg和<17mg/kg,西北荒漠绿洲区第1~4级指标依次为≥303mg/kg、140~303mg/kg、65~140mg/kg和<65mg/kg;当目标产量9~27t/hm²、钾肥利用率50%时,第1~6级土壤的推荐施钾量分别为0、54~162kg/hm²、108~324kg/hm²、162~486kg/hm²、216~648kg/hm²和270~810kg/hm²。     

鲁西北一次农业致灾暴雨天气成因分析

为了揭示局地暴雨天气的成因,以期为此类农业灾害性天气的预报预警提供指示,笔者利用常规观测资料、加密自动站资料和多普勒雷达回波资料,对鲁西北地区2012年7月4—5日暴雨天气过程的环流背景、物理量场特征和中小尺度系统进行分析。结果表明:此次暴雨的主要影响系统是高空西风槽、切变线和低空急流;聊城地区水汽通量散度所揭示的强水汽辐合时间与垂直运动发展增强时间没有很好的对应,因此此次强降水时间较短;暴雨落区与强上升运动的发展区域在空间上相关性更好;对流层低层辐合线触发了不稳定能量的释放产生暴雨;此次暴雨过程的局地特点可以用中小尺度系统进行解释,而中小尺度系统的跟踪一定程度上依赖于区域站资料的开发应用;多普勒雷达的强雷达回波单体和阵风锋能较好地解释此次局地暴雨过程,多普勒雷达产品的应用有待进一步深化研究。     

多因子问诊1998年和2016年松花江流域夏季降水

为了分析强El nino 衰减年（1998 年和2016 年）松花江流域夏季降水异常成因，提高松花江流域夏季降水预测能力。采用松花江流域97 站逐日降水资料，NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等资料，通过合成分析、相关分析等多种物理诊断方法分析1998 年和2016 年夏季降水异常成因。结果表明：仅仅依靠强El nino 事件的结束时间和强度还不能确定松花江流域夏季降水变化，还需要考虑中高纬环流及其大气内部的自身演变过程，例如东北冷涡的强度和发生时间，欧亚中高纬环流阻高的变化。需要综合考虑海温、副热带系统和中高纬环流系统的异常变化给松花江流域夏季降水带来的影响，从多因子角度诊断和预测松花江流域夏季降水，从而提升预测水平，为气象防灾减灾和农业生产服务提供决策依据。     

1951-2016年长江荆南三口地区旱涝演变与急转特征分析

根据荆南三口地区22个气象站点1951—2016年月降水资料，采用标准化降水指数（SPI）及夏季长周期旱涝急转指数（LDFAI），辅以EOF分析、小波分析、M-K检验等相关分析方法，分析荆南三口地区66年旱涝的变化特征。结果表明：（1）旱涝年际变化较大，20世纪50年代前涝后旱、60—70年代整体干旱、80年代旱涝交替、90年代洪涝、21世纪前涝后旱，且四季均可发生旱涝事件。（2）空间尺度可分为3个区域类型，东南部（湿润区）、中部（降水均匀区）、西北部（偏干区），且季节空间分布上存在较大差异，西北部的五峰、宜昌、荆州等地四季干旱较多，中部的安乡、南县、华容等地四季洪涝较多。（3）年与四季多以5年、10年周期为主，并具有30~35年的长周期。（4）旱涝急转指数在1981年和2015年发生显著变化，而旱涝强度在1972年和2014年发生显著突变。（5）宜昌、石门、澧县等夏季多为旱转涝；五峰、宁乡、安乡、华容、常德等地夏季多为涝转旱。     

白膜、黑膜全年覆盖下的土壤水、热、盐变化

地膜覆盖因能有效地增温保墒增产而在黄土丘陵区旱作农林生产中广泛应用。为明确不同薄膜覆盖的差异以及连续覆膜条件下的土壤水热盐变化特征,于2015年7月1日—2017年6月30日在陕北米脂进行野外连续覆膜定位观测,试验设裸地(CK)、白色薄膜(WF)与黑色薄膜(BF)3种处理,利用GS3仪器监测0～150cm深度的土壤水分、温度和电导率。结果表明:1)连续覆盖两年后,两种覆膜处理平均土壤含水量为16.9%, CK为13.6%,土壤储水量分别达314.56mm、204.44mm,具体表现为土壤含水量BF在0～15cm高于WF(P0.05),15～30cm低于WF(P0.05); 0～150 cm, WF和BF总储水量差异不显著,与CK差异显著(P0.05);在作物生育期覆膜平均较CK提高储水量60.8 mm。2)膜覆盖下近地面日温差WF大于BF, 0～150 cm,两种覆膜周年土壤平均温度无显著差异,较CK高1.3℃(P0.05);气温较高条件下WF比BF、CK缩短冻融时间分别达8d和24d,WF更有利于土壤解冻和早春土壤增温。3)周年土壤表层盐分高,其中0～30 cm土层电导率为BFWFCK, 30～50 cm土层为WFBFCK,但土壤总体盐分较低,无土壤盐渍化趋势, 50 cm以下3种处理盐分没有差异。综合而言, WF较BF更能提高表层土壤温度, BF较WF更能提高表层土壤水分,覆膜保墒增温,延长作物生长时间。研究成果可为黄土丘陵区旱作农业覆膜应用提供土壤水热盐调控依据,也为果园和林地常年连续覆膜提供参考。     

1976—2017年青海湖东北部地区极端降水事件变化特征分析

为进一步了解高寒牧区气候变化,依据1976—2017年青海湖东北部海晏站逐日降水资料,采用百分位法确定冬、夏半年极端降雨（雪）阈值并统计极端降水事件,运用线性趋势、R/S和小波分析法分析极端降水事件变化特征、未来演变趋势及周期。结果表明：青海湖东北部地区冬、夏半年极端降水日数和极端降水量呈不显著增加趋势;冬半年极端降水强度和日最大降水量不显著增加,而夏半年不显著减小;极端降水对年降水的贡献率均以不同的速率增加,其中夏半年的极端降水对年降水的影响较大;冬半年降水日数不显著减小,而降水量显著增加,表明冬半年发生短时强降水的几率增大,夏半年的降水日数和降水量增加不明显;未来,冬半年极端降水日数增加趋势将发生转变,极端降水量与之前的变化趋势无关将继续呈现震荡性,其他各要素将持续前期的变化趋势;冬（夏）半年极端降水日数和降水量分别存在明显的周期变化特征。高寒牧区的极端降水研究对于预防短时强降水带来的雪灾、洪涝事件的发生意义重大。     

称重式降水传感器与翻斗雨量传感器测雨性能对比分析

为了观测降水数据的准确性,选取了南通市4个台站2018年4月—10月份的DCS1型称重式降水传感器和SL3-1型翻斗雨量传感器观测的降水数据,分析两者观测的日降水量和降水总量等方面的差异。结果显示：在选取的观测样本中,以人工观测的降雨日数为参考,称重传感器的平均一致率为91.2%;以翻斗传感器观测的降雨日为参考,称重传感器的一致率为94.5%。称重传感器观测的累积降水量与翻斗传感器观测的累积降水量相对平均误差为-1.55%,符合中国气象局规定的相对误差不超过±4%的规范要求。在分析日降水量方面,发现称重传感器比翻斗传感器观测量平均偏小0.29 mm;有明显性降水时,两者在日降水量等级判别上基本一致。称重传感器观测的数据小于翻斗传感器观测的数据概率要高,两种传感器观测的差值分布较为一致。称重传感器在捕捉微量降水的能力不比翻斗传感器差,甚至更好。称重传感器观测的日降水量与翻斗传感器观测的日降水量相关系数为0.99826,达到0.01显著相关的水平。