基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法

将Copula函数与高效蒙特卡洛方法结合,提出了含相关随机变量的边坡可靠度高效分析方法。以两个岩质边坡稳定性问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法相比于直接蒙特卡洛方法在保证边坡失效概率的准确性的同时计算效率更高。Copula函数可以构造出具有不同相关结构的岩土体参数的联合概率分布,与高效蒙特卡洛方法(即蒙特卡洛重要抽样方法和子集模拟)结合能高效地处理含多种相关随机变量的边坡可靠度计算问题,相比于现行的Nataf变换方法结果更能体现岩土边坡真实稳定性。此外,该方法也能高效地计算含有复杂的隐式功能函数的边坡可靠度,研究成果拓展了高效蒙特卡洛方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。     

水流作用下临水岸坡稳定性计算模型

河流崩岸是我国堤防安全面临的重大问题,汛期前后崩岸诱发大量的滑体进入河道,影响航运,给沿岸人民正常生产生活带来重大影响。针对水流作用下临水岸坡失稳问题,综合考虑坡表静水压力、内部孔隙水压力、边坡几何形状等因素的影响,构建了楔形岸坡稳定计算模型,并结合长江干流芙蓉大堤段崩岸实例,分析了各因素对岸坡稳定的作用。结果表明,坡表与地下水位升降及二者之差,对岸坡稳定影响较大,且水流的淘刷深度也直接影响着岸坡整体稳定。     

不同植被措施下排土场边坡细沟发育时空特征

为明确不同恢复年限植被措施对煤矿排土场边坡水土流失的防治效应,采用样方调查法,以内蒙古准格尔旗永利煤矿矿区排土场边坡为研究对象,以裸露边坡(CK)为对照,研究不同恢复年限(1a、3a、5 a)的沙柳方格+沙棘+沙打旺(SHA)和沙柳方格+沙打旺(SA)2种措施对细沟发育的影响。结果表明:(1)1a时CK、SHA与SA措施细沟宽度均集中分布在4～8 cm,细沟深度均集中分布在2～4 cm;3 a时CK、SHA与SA措施细沟宽度则集中分布在4～8 cm、8～12 cm、4～8 cm,细沟深度均集中分布在4～6 cm;5 a时CK与SHA措施细沟宽度均集中分布在8～12 cm,而细沟深度则集中分布在4～6 cm和8～14 cm;(2)CK(1～5 a)、SHA措施(1～5 a)和SA措施(1～3 a)的细沟平均宽分别为7.57～11.35 cm、7.58～13.31 cm和5.57～6.14 cm,细沟平均深分别为3.38～6.23 cm、4.19～10.34 cm、2.59～4.24 cm,三者的细沟平均宽深比分别为2.39、2.12和2.05,平均细沟密度分别为1.52～5.25 m·m–2、1.42～1.68 m·m–2和1.88～2.25 m·m–2;(3)1 a时CK、SHA和SA措施的细沟宽深比随坡长变化幅度较大,随着恢复年限增加,宽深比则呈下降趋势,CK、SHA措施和SA措施的细沟密度和细沟侵蚀量均随坡长增加呈增大趋势;(4)与CK相比,1 a时SHA和SA措施边坡细沟侵蚀模数分别减小25.0%和25.86%,两种措施减蚀效果差别不大,而3 a时则分别减小了61.73%和35.31%,SHA措施减蚀效果显著增强。研究结果可以为矿区排土场边坡的植被合理布设提供科学依据与理论指导。     

土壤管理措施对坡耕地侵蚀退化耕层的恢复作用

【目的】紫色土坡耕地土壤侵蚀严重,研究土壤管理措施对不同侵蚀程度坡耕地耕层侵蚀恢复作用,为紫色土坡耕地耕层质量调控和坡耕地持续利用提供理论及实践依据。【方法】采用单因素方差分析（One-way ANOVA）检验各指标的差异显著性,研究不施肥（CK）、施化肥（F）、施生物炭+化肥（BF）3种土壤管理措施对侵蚀0 cm（S_-0）、侵蚀5 cm（S_-5）、侵蚀10 cm（S_-10）、侵蚀15 cm（S_-15）、侵蚀20 cm（S_-20） 5个不同侵蚀程度坡耕地耕层土壤属性的恢复作用。【结果】（1）随侵蚀程度增加,土壤砂粒含量由38.1%—42.4%逐渐增至44.2%—46.4%,土壤黏粒含量由12.6%—14.8%逐渐减少至9.6%—11.0%;与S_-0、S_-5、S_-10相比,S_-15、S_-20土壤容重显著增大;S_-10侵蚀程度下,土壤抗剪强度最大,在8.71—9.56 kg·cm^-2之间;F、BF处理下S_-15侵蚀程度的土壤稳定入渗率、平均入渗率降幅均最大。（2）不同管理措施下坡耕地耕层土壤属性差异显著,BF处理下土壤砂粒含量小、黏粒含量最大,0—10 cm、10—20 cm土层土壤容重显著低于CK（P<0.05）,土壤总孔隙度、毛管孔隙度均显著高于CK、F处理;BF处理下土壤初始入渗率、稳定入渗率、平均入渗率均最大,CK处理最小;与CK处理相比,BF处理土壤抗剪强度显著增大。（3）随侵蚀程度增加,土壤可蚀性K值显著下降,与S_-0相比,S_-20侵蚀程度下土壤可蚀性K值下降0.1960%—0.2192%;BF处理下土壤可蚀性K值最大,F处理次之,CK最小;S_-10侵蚀程度下F、BF处理的K值均较CK增加幅度最大,分别增加0.0684%、0.1404%。【结论】施加生物炭+化肥在改善土壤物质组成、结构特征、提高土壤蓄渗性能等方面较单施化肥效果更为显著,可有效减轻紫色土坡耕地耕层土壤侵蚀,对侵蚀10 cm条件下的坡耕地耕作层（0—20 cm）土壤的改良效果最佳。     

不同自然通风方式对日光温室性能的影响

为探究不同自然通风方式下日光温室室内环境因子的变化规律,提高日光温室自然通风效率,设计2种不同自然通风方式:后坡整体开窗式和后坡间隔开窗式。将分别采用后坡整体开窗式和后坡间隔开窗式通风方式的温室,依次记为G1、G2,并以传统顶通风式日光温室(G3)为对照,对上述3座采用不同自然通风方式的温室内部环境和作物生长状况进行了研究。结果表明:晴天白天,G1、G2的室内光照强度分别比G3提高了26.34%和10.16%,G1、G2、G3平均气温分别为33.7、33.8、34.8℃,平均相对湿度分别为47.15%、47.21%、44.03%,风速折减率分别为0.80、0.74、0.90;晴天13:00,G1、G2的植物冠层气温分布呈现南高北低,而G3的呈南低北高分布。G1、G2内的番茄产量分别比G3提高了19.54%、6.90%。综上,后坡整体开窗式表现最优。     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

Modelling soil erodibility in mountain rangelands of southern Kyrgyzstan

Soil erosion in mountain rangelands in Kyrgyzstan is an emerging problem due to vegetation loss caused by overgrazing. It is further exacerbated by mountain terrain and high precipitation values in Fergana range in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The main objective of this study was to map soil erodibility in the mountainous rangelands of Kyrgyzstan. The results of this effort are expected to contribute to the development of soil erodibility modelling approaches for mountainous areas. In this study, we mapped soil erodibility at two sites, both representing grazing rangelands in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan and having potentially different levels of grazing pressure. We collected a total of 232 soil samples evenly distributed in geographical space and feature space. Then we analyzed the samples in laboratory for grain size distribution and calculated soil erodibility values from these data using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) K-factor formula. After that, we derived different terrain indices and ratios of frequency bands from ASTER GDEM and LANDSAT images to use as auxiliary data because they are among the main soil forming factors and widely used for prediction of various soil properties. Soil erodibility was significantly correlated with channel network base level (geographically extrapolated altitude of water channels), remotely sensed indices of short-wave infrared spectral bands, exposition, and slope degree. We applied multiple regression analysis to predict soil erodibility from spatially explicit terrain and remotely sensed indices. The final soil erodibility model was developed using the spatially explicit predictors and the regression equation and then improved by adding the residuals. The spatial resolution of the model was 30 m, and the estimated mean adjusted coefficient of determination was 0.47. The two sites indicated different estimated and predicted means of soil erodibility values (0.035 and 0.039) with a 0.05 significance level, which is attributed mainly to the considerable difference in elevation.     

降雨类型与坡度对棕壤垄沟系统产流产沙的影响

为深入理解棕壤垄作坡耕地的土壤侵蚀机理,利用1.60 m×0.53 m的试验土槽,设计2个降雨类型,即增强型(70～70～100～100 mm/h)和减弱型(100～100～70～70 mm/h),以及2个坡度(9°和18°)的人工模拟降雨试验。每个雨型分2个阶段(阶段I、阶段II),每个阶段进行相同雨强的2个场次降雨,每个场次降雨历时20 min。结果表明:(1)雨强对径流量呈显著影响(P0.05),100 mm/h雨强下的径流量70 mm/h时的径流量。在减弱型雨型下,坡度对径流量影响显著(P0.05),而增强型雨型下在不同阶段坡度对径流量的影响不同。(2)雨强对产沙量的影响显著(P0.05),在阶段Ⅰ降雨中,100 mm/h雨强下9°和18°坡面的平均每分钟产沙量分别为70 mm/h雨强下的23.98,9.07倍。在70 mm/h雨强下,坡度对产沙量的影响显著(P0.05),而100 mm/h雨强下不同阶段坡度对径流量的影响具有差异性。(3)100 mm/h雨强在不同雨型中出现的时序对产沙量影响不显著(P0.05);在70 mm/h雨强下,产沙量整体较小,基本在15 g/min以下。同一雨强在不同雨型中的时序对径流量均存在显著影响(P0.05)。(4)总径流量从大到小依次为:9°减弱型18°减弱型9°增强型18°增强型;总产沙量从大到小依次为:18°增强型18°减弱型9°减弱型9°增强型。不同雨型下,雨强发生改变后,累计径流量和累计产沙量增加速率和雨强的改变具有一致性。     

Associations of fish with various types of littoral habitats in reservoirs

Fish associations with different types of littoral habitats were studied in four canyon‐shaped reservoirs in the Czech Republic in years 2010 and 2011 by gillnets. Two to three habitats per reservoir–beaches (former meadows), stump fields (former forest) and rubble slopes–were defined and sampled along the longitudinal axis of reservoirs. Effects of reservoir, habitat and locality (position along longitudinal axis) on fish biomass, abundance and species structure were tested for juvenile and adult fish separately. Hierarchical analysis of variance revealed that habitats differed significantly in fish biomass and abundance. Redundancy analysis showed that analysed environmental variables had significant influence on fish community structure. Most variability in community structure was explained by reservoir and then by combination of habitat and slope steepness. Locality position had the smallest influence on community structure. For both adult and juvenile fish total abundance and biomass, the most inhabited habitat was beaches; rubble slopes were the least inhabited. Habitat associations differed among species. Among adults, bream Abramis brama, white bream Blicca bjoerkna and roach Rutilus rutilus were associated with beaches and stump fields, whereas perch Perca fluviatilis, ruffe Gymnocephalus cernuus, asp Aspius aspius and pike Esox lucius were associated with rubble slopes. Bream, white bream, bleak Alburnus alburnus, roach, ruffe and pikeperch Sander lucioperca were associated with beaches among juveniles, whereas the only juvenile associated with rubble slopes was perch. We showed that most common species are associated with distinct habitats and also that utilisation of various littoral habitats differs in general.     

基于斜率比法评定断奶仔猪对不同铜源的相对生物学利用率

本试验旨在研究不同铜源（硫酸铜、碱式氯化铜和柠檬酸铜）和铜添加水平（20和30 mg/kg）对断奶仔猪生长性能、血清铜含量与含铜酶活性以及组织铜含量的影响,探讨断奶仔猪对不同铜源的相对生物学利用率。试验采用3×2双因子随机区组设计,选取平均体重为（8.98±0.48） kg的杜×长×大三元杂交断奶仔猪112头,随机分为7组,每组4个重复,每个重复4头猪。对照组饲喂玉米-豆粕型基础饲粮（铜含量为7.80 mg/kg）,各试验组分别在基础饲粮中添加20或30 mg/kg硫酸铜、碱式氯化铜或柠檬酸铜（均以铜含量计）。试验预试期3 d,正试期28 d。结果表明：1）试验组与对照组断奶仔猪平均日增重、平均日采食量和料重比均无显著差异（P>0.05）。2）饲粮铜源和铜添加水平对断奶仔猪血清铜含量具有显著影响（P<0.05）,但对血清铜蓝蛋白和铜锌超氧化物歧化酶活性均无显著影响（P>0.05）。3）饲粮铜源和铜添加水平对断奶仔猪肝脏铜含量具有显著影响（P<0.05）,但对心脏、肾脏、胰脏和跖骨铜含量均无显著影响（P>0.05）。4）根据多元线性回归斜率比法计算,以血清铜...