一种改进的CRLP最大许用操作压力设计方法

与传统管线钢管相比,复合材料增强管线钢管(CompositeReinforcedLinePipe,CRLP)具有承压能力高和质量轻等优势,但对其压力设计的研究尚不充分。CSAZ662-2015《油气管道系统》和GB/T35185—2017《石油天然气工业用复合材料增强管线钢管》中最大许用操作压力的设计思路不同,且设计结果差别较大。针对此问题,基于组合薄壁圆筒模型对承压CRLP进行分析,对最大许用操作压力下材料的名义许用应力和真实许用应力进行了区分,进而导出真实许用应力的显式表达形式,并以此作为设计安全裕度的评价指标。分析表明:现有规范和标准中的设计公式均无法保证管线钢和复合材料的真实许用应力为常量,对应两种设计方法,各组分材料的真实许用应力均随CRLP规格差异而发生变化,并且随着试压/预应力处理的历程而改变。基于上述分析和CRLP极限状态下的承载特征,提出一种改进的压力设计方法。新方法优先保证复合材料的真实许用应力为常量,并可由设计系数直接确定;在最大许用操作压力的计算中,考虑了加载历程的影响,物理意义明确。算例表明,其设计安全裕度较现有方法更为合理,对于CRLP压力设计的改进有参考价值。     

基于低影响开发的校园雨水控制及效益分析

以安徽理工大学为研究对象,应用4种低影响开发(LID)方案(植草沟、下沉式绿地、雨水罐和植草沟-下沉式绿地-雨水罐组合)构建雨洪管理模型(SWMM),模拟不同雨水重现期下各种LID方案的水文和水质性能,并评价了经济效益.结果表明:植草沟的径流削减效率最好,可延迟流量峰现时间,且能有效地削减污染负荷;除雨水罐外,另外3种LID实践方案具有良好的环境效益;从成本效益上分析,下沉式绿地和组合LID实践方案的污染物控制效果较好,但其单位削减率成本高,植草沟对污染物控制效果不理想,但其具有最低的单位削减率;若想取得较好的污染物控制效果,则需要投入更大的成本,可以采用下沉式绿地或组合LID实践方案,下沉式绿地或组合LID实践方案不仅能有效削减峰值流量,缓解城市排水管网负荷,且对污染物的削减效果较好.可为中国校园中LID实践的应用决策提供理论支持.     

基于MaxEnt模型的新疆红枣生态适宜性与区划分析

【目的】 结合种植区资源分布现状,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测新疆红枣潜在适生区,为新疆红枣区域布局和种植结构调整提供有效的理论指导和依据。【方法】 以年降水量、花期降水量(5~6月)、成熟期降水量(9~10月)、年有效积温(≥10℃)、年极端最低气温和平均气温6个气候因子和绿洲灌溉区、沙漠敏感区2个土地因子及高程因子为环境变量,利用GIS空间分析技术获取新疆红枣地理分布数据,采用MaxEnt模型进行建模并预测新疆红枣潜在适生区,使用百分比贡献率分析其主要环境因子及生态位参数。【结果】 (1)ROC评价(Receiver Operating Characteristic,ROC)显示MaxEnt模型预测新疆红枣潜在适生区的训练数据集和测试数据集的AUC值分别为0.921和0.904,模拟效果优秀。(2)新疆红枣潜在适生区总面积2 365.939 7×10⁴ hm²,其中最适生区429.350 1×10⁴ hm²,主要分布于新疆南疆的喀什地区、阿克苏地区、和田地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州和巴音郭楞蒙古自治州,东疆的吐鲁番市、哈密市。(3)影响新疆红枣生长的主要环境因子是年极端最低气温(35.15%)、绿洲灌溉区(20.77%)、年有效积温(19%)和成熟期降水量(13.27%)。新疆红枣适宜生长在年极端最低气温≥-24.65℃,年有效积温≥3 595℃,成熟期降水量为0.54~7.64 mm,且绿洲灌溉区有助于提高其适生程度。【结论】 新疆红枣潜在适生区呈现环塔里木盆地聚集,低温是其最主要的影响因子。     

红壤区肥液浓度对涌泉根灌水氮运移特性的影响

为提高红壤区涌泉根灌水氮利用效率,通过室内肥液入渗试验,研究了不同肥液浓度(0,10,20,35,60 g/L)条件下涌泉根灌土壤的入渗能力、湿润锋运移距离、土壤水分分布以及铵态氮和硝态氮的运移特性,并建立了红壤涌泉根灌土壤累计入渗量及湿润锋在竖直向上、竖直向下和水平方向的运移距离与肥液浓度的关系模型。结果表明:土壤累计入渗量、湿润锋运移距离以及湿润体内水分和氮素的分布均受到肥液浓度的影响。在同一入渗时刻,土壤累计入渗量及湿润锋运移距离随肥液浓度的增大而增大,且与入渗历时均呈幂函数关系;在灌水结束时,相同土层深度内,肥液浓度越大,土壤含水率就越大,土壤中铵态氮和硝态氮的浓度也越大,且与铵态氮相比,硝态氮的分布范围更广。随着肥液再分布的进行,土层内最大含水率位置逐渐下移,且土壤含水率的分布也更加均匀;土壤中铵态氮和硝态氮浓度的变化趋势不同,浅层中铵态氮的浓度逐渐降低,而硝态氮的浓度先降低后增加;深层中铵态氮的浓度先增加后降低,而硝态氮的浓度逐渐增加。该研究成果可为进一步研究红壤区涌泉根灌肥液入渗氮素运移及转化提供理论参考。     

温室茄子氮、磷、钾素最大利润施用量研究

为了研究温室茄子氮、磷、钾素最大利润施用量,为茄子合理施肥和安全生产提供参考,在甘肃省张掖市甘州区党寨镇温室内,采用田间小区试验方法,进行了温室茄子氮、磷、钾素最大利润施用量研究。结果表明:随着氮、磷、钾素施用量梯度的增大,茄子产量逐渐增加,边际产量、边际产值和边际利润均呈递减趋势,其中边际利润最终出现负值。根据最大利润施用量计算公式求得茄子氮、磷、钾素最大利润施用量分别为0.62、0.41、0.29 t/hm~2,进而得出最大利润施用量的理论产量分别为95.58、96.04、95.35 t/hm~2。     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Polymerisation of gluten proteins in developing wheat grain as affected by desiccation

The breadmaking quality of wheat is affected by the composition of gluten proteins and the polymerisation of subunits that are synthesised and accumulated in developing wheat grain. The biological mechanisms and time course of these events during grain development are documented, but not widely confirmed. Therefore, the aim of this study was to monitor the accumulation of gluten protein subunits and the size distribution of protein aggregates during grain development. The effect of desiccation on the polymerisation of gluten proteins and the functional properties of gluten were also studied. The results showed that the size of glutenin polymers remained consistently low until yellow ripeness (YR), while it increased during grain desiccation after YR. Hence, this polymerisation process was presumed to be initiated by desiccation. A similar polymerisation event was also observed when premature grains were dried artificially. The composition of gluten proteins, the ratios of glutenin to gliadin and high molecular weight-glutenin subunits to low molecular weight-glutenin subunits, in premature grain after artificial desiccation showed close association with the size of glutenin polymers in artificially dried grain. Functional properties of gluten in these samples were also associated with polymer size after artificial desiccation.     

A new lean no time test baking method with improved discriminating power

In response to customer concerns related to gluten strength in commercial baking, the Canadian Grain Commission assessed whether the Canadian Short Process (CSP) test bake method was generating useful data related to intrinsic strength of wheat varieties. Assessment of CSP loaf volume data for Canadian variety trials spanning 2003 to 2013 showed very little correlation with dough strength parameters as measured by farinograph and extensigraph. A lean no time (LNT) test baking method was developed that can better discriminate genotypes and provide objective indicators of the effect of intrinsic dough strength on baking quality. From early method development, through method validation and verification using diverse sets of samples targeting different Canadian wheat classes and grown in three different crop years, results showed the LNT method to be more discriminating and easily adopted by other laboratories. In 2015, the LNT method was adopted as the method of choice in future Canadian variety registration trials. The LNT method is fast, simple and well-suited to high throughput test baking conditions encountered in the evaluation of large numbers of breeder lines. A new objective parameter, loaf top ratio, was also introduced and found to correlate well with dough strength and dough handling properties.     

Proportionality principle revisited – relationship between application rates and pesticide residue concentrations in food commodities

BACKGROUND

The proportionality principle has been broadly used for over 10 years in regulatory assessments of pesticide residues. It allows extrapolation of supervised field trial data conducted at lower or higher application rates compared to the use pattern under evaluation by adjustment of measured concentrations, assuming direct proportionality between the rates applied and the resulting residues. This work revisits the principle idea by using supervised residue trials sets conducted under identical conditions but with deviating application rates. Four different statistical methods were used to investigate the relationship between application rates and residue concentrations and to draw conclusions on the statistical significance of the direct proportionality assumed.

RESULTS

Based on over 5000 individual trial results, the assumption of direct proportionality was not confirmed to be statistically significant (P > 0.05) using three models: direct comparison of application rates and residue concentrations ratios and two linear log-log regression models correlating application rate and residue concentration or only residue concentrations per se. In addition, a fourth model analysed deviations between expected concentrations following direct proportional adjustment and measured residue values from corresponding field trials. In 56% of all cases, the deviation was larger than ±25%, which represents the tolerance usually accepted for the selection of supervised field trials in regulatory assessments.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the assumption of direct proportionality between application rates and resulting residue concentrations of pesticides was not statistically significant. Although the proportionality approach is highly pragmatic in regulatory practice, its use should be considered carefully on a case-by-case basis. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.     

欧盟、美国和日本加工农产品中农药残留评估现状

本文介绍了欧盟、美国和日本评估加工农产品中农药残留的数据要求和试验准则,以及开展膳食摄入风险评估和推荐农药最大残留限量(MRL)的方法,汇总了用于农药残留评估的加工农产品及其分类,分析了加工农产品中农药MRL制定现状,为进一步提高我国相关领域技术提供借鉴。比较分析结果表明,欧盟和美国在农药登记资料要求中明确提出了加工试验数据要求并且制定了相应的试验准则,美国在试验准则中描述了加工农产品中农药MRL的推荐原则;美国和日本制定了一定数量的加工农产品中农药MRL,欧盟建立了适用于监管农药MRL的加工因子数据库;欧盟、美国和日本均在相关法规中规定了加工农产品中农药残留的合规性判定。