稻纵卷叶螟种群动态的地统计学分析

概述了地统计学在昆虫种群时空动态分析中的基本方法,应用该方法分析了省通州市和安徽省凤阳县稻纵卷叶螟２３个各世代种群时间格局的结构特征和自相关性,并对历年各世代的种群数量进行了模拟估计。结果表明：种群每世代的累计蛾量和高峰日蛾量在一定世代间隔内均存在着自相关性,当世代间隔超过一定距离时表现为相互独立。两地区种群世代间的影响范围和作用程度的大小存在差异。     

基于地统计的额济纳绿洲地下水位埋深空间异质性研究

利用地统计学方法定量研究了额济纳绿洲地下水位埋深的空间异质性.结果表明:额济纳绿洲地下水位埋深分布有较大的空间异质性,地下水位埋深的理论模型为球体模型;额济纳绿洲地下水位埋深主要受结构性因子的影响;地下水位埋深的变程在22.6km左右.地下水位埋深的空间分布总体上表现为从南到北,从西向东逐渐增大的分布格局.局部分布上,...     

新疆伊犁地区草地土壤全碳含量空间格局分析

为了研究伊犁地区草地土壤碳库的空间分布规律,本研究基于146个草地样地的土壤全碳含量实测数据,结合遥感及气象数据,并利用地理学相关分析方法,构建土壤全碳含量空间化模型,分析了伊犁地区草地不同土壤深度全碳含量空间格局特征,并对影响土壤全碳含量分布的主要因素进行探讨。结果表明,1)伊犁地区草地不同土壤深度(0-10、10-20、20-30、30-40cm和4个土层均值)的全碳含量与海拔、年均气温、≥10℃年积温和8月份NDVI极显著相关(P0.01),与年均降水和湿润度显著相关(P0.05),以这6个生态要素建立土壤全碳含量空间化模型,反演得到空间分辨率1km的不同草地深度土壤全碳含量空间格局分布数据,检验结果表明空间化结果精度较高。2)伊犁地区草地0-40cm土层土壤全碳平均含量为4.251 9%,并随着土层深度的增加,草地土壤全碳含量呈下降趋势。3)伊犁地区空间化结果反映不同深度土壤全碳含量空间格局存在差异,土壤全碳含量最小值出现在伊犁河沿岸两侧及特克斯河与伊犁河交汇处人类活动密集的区域,最大值均出现在南、北天山两侧,并沿着伊犁河向两侧高海拔区域逐渐增加。4)伊犁地区草地不同深度土壤全碳含量空间分布规律与草地类型分布规律一致;人为活动干扰(过度放牧、盲目开垦)对草地土壤全碳含量影响较大。     

Spatial epidemiological approaches to inform leptospirosis surveillance and control: A systematic review and critical appraisal of methods

Leptospirosis is a global zoonotic disease that the transmission is driven by complex geographical and temporal variation in demographics, animal hosts and socioecological factors. This results in complex challenges for the identification of high‐risk areas. Spatial and temporal epidemiological tools could be used to support leptospirosis control programs, but the adequacy of its application has not been evaluated. We searched literature in six databases including PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Scopus, SciELO and Zoological Record to systematically review and critically assess the use of spatial and temporal analytical tools for leptospirosis and to provide general framework for its application in future studies. We reviewed 115 articles published between 1930 and October 2018 from 41 different countries. Of these, 65 (56.52%) articles were on human leptospirosis, 39 (33.91%) on animal leptospirosis and 11 (9.5%) used data from both human and animal leptospirosis. Spatial analytical (n = 106) tools were used to describe the distribution of incidence/prevalence at various geographical scales (96.5%) and to explored spatial patterns to detect clustering and hot spots (33%). A total of 51 studies modelled the relationships of various variables on the risk of human (n = 31), animal (n = 17) and both human and animal infection (n = 3). Among those modelling studies, few studies had generated spatially structured models and predictive maps of human (n = 2/31) and animal leptospirosis (n = 1/17). In addition, nine studies applied time‐series analytical tools to predict leptospirosis incidence. Spatial and temporal analytical tools have been greatly utilized to improve our understanding on leptospirosis epidemiology. Yet the quality of the epidemiological data, the selection of covariates and spatial analytical techniques should be carefully considered in future studies to improve usefulness of evidence as tools to support leptospirosis control. A general framework for the application of spatial analytical tools for leptospirosis was proposed.     

废弃地复垦土壤重金属空间格局及其与复垦措施的关系

基于经典统计学、变异函数理论以及经验贝叶斯克里格法,以西南地区某历史遗留硫磺矿废弃地为研究对象,从点与区域两方面系统分析其复垦土壤重金属空间分布特征,揭示其与复垦措施的量化关系。结果表明,经典统计学、变异函数理论以及经验贝叶斯克里格法相结合方法用于揭示硫磺矿废弃地复垦土壤重金属空间分布格局是可行和科学的。该硫磺矿废弃地复垦土地的5种土壤重金属的变异系数均较大,这与复垦土壤无序、易变以及空间均匀性和突变性统一的特征相符合。土壤重金属富集系数均在2以上。在历史矿山开采、复垦措施和地形地貌的共同作用下,不同土壤重金属在全局空间上具有一定的相似,在南北和东西方向均基本呈现两头低和中间高的倒U字形趋势。绝大多数复垦土壤重金属的块基比在50%,复垦过程中覆土、培肥和土壤pH值调节措施等随机因素在各重金属的空间变异中占主导作用。无论是何种重金属,一区东部、二区北部、四区西部均呈现较高的重金属含量;一区和二区西部、三区北部地区含量相对较低。复垦为林地和草地的重金属平均含量均高于耕地,对于复垦为耕地后续需进一步防控重金属污染,特别是Cd元素;随着有效土层厚度的逐渐增加,土壤重金属总体呈下降趋势。有效土层厚度在30~100 cm之间土壤重金属无明显差异,建议研究区复垦覆土后有效土层厚度达到100 cm以上。随着土壤pH值变小,复垦土壤重金属总体呈上升趋势,通过调控pH值来降低土壤重金属含量需要持续保证在一定范围,建议研究区pH值持续控制在7~8。     

不同深度土壤中氮素的空间变异研究

对供试区分析土壤中的氨态氮和硝态氮含量,用区域化变量理论和半方差函数分析,研究结果表明不同深度土壤中氨态氮和硝态氮含量具有空间变异性,均属于中等程度变异.通过对其半方差函授进行拟合,其变异程度主要由土壤本身的空间结构引起,不同深度土壤中氨态氮和硝态氮含量的空间相关尺度不同.     

经验正交函数与地统计相结合分析降水时空变异

把经验正交函数展开和地统计分析有机结合,以河南省近51年雨季降水为例,进行降水时空变异特征研究。结果表明,用经验正交函数把降水变量场的主要空间分布结构分离出来,可正确地提取时间函数向量;再运用地统计分析对河南省多年雨季降水空间函数特征向量进行空间变异结构分析与插值,得出了河南省雨季降水量空间分布的主要4种类型:总体一致型、南北差异型、东西差异型和豫西山区异常型;然后对时间函数进行分析,得到了对应空间分布型的年际变化趋势规律。     

Cokriging of Soil Cation Exchange Capacity Using the First Principal Component Derived from Soil Physico-Chemical Properties

As soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) is a vital indicator of soil quality and pollutant sequestration capacity,a study was conducted to evaluate cokriging of CEC with the principal components derived from soil physico-chemical properties.In Qingdao,China,107 soil samples were collected.Soil CEC was estimated by using 86 soil samples for prediction and 21 soil samples for test.The first two principal components (PC1 and PC2) together explained 60.2％ of the total variance of soil physico-chemical properties.The PC1 was highly correlated with CEC (r=0.76,P＜0.01),whereas there was no significant correlation between CEC and PC2 (r=0.03).The PC1 was then used as an auxiliary variable for the prediction of soil CEC.Mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) of kriging for the test dataset were -1.76 and 3.67 cmolc kg-1,and ME and RMSE of cokriging for the test dataset were -1.47 and 2.95 cmolc kg-1,respectively.The cross-validation R2 for the prediction dataset was 0.24 for kriging and 0.39 for cokriging.The results show that cokriging with PC1 is more reliable than kriging for spatial interpolation.In addition,principal components have the highest potential for cokriging predictions when the principal components have good correlations with the primary variables.     

内蒙古腰坝绿洲土壤盐分空间变异性规律

采用经典统计学、地统计学及Kriging最优内插法,对内蒙古腰坝绿洲耕层土(0~20cm)的土壤盐分空间变异性进行分析,以期为该区土壤盐渍化防治提供参考依据。结果表明:研究区土壤为碱性氯化物-硫酸盐型轻度盐渍化土,全盐量、SO4^2-具有中等空间自相关性,其余盐分指标具有强烈的空间自相关性,空间采样尺度以1km为佳;在空间分布格局上,土壤全盐量、Ca^2+、K^++Na^+、Mg^2+、SO4^2-、Cl^-呈西南高东北低的特征,而pH、HCO3-呈西南低东北高的特征。     

基于不同人为干扰的土壤全量氮磷钾空间变异性研究

采用地统计学与GIS技术相结合的方法，对无人为干扰区25个样本、人为干扰区30个样本土壤全量氮磷钾的空间异质性进行了研究。结果表明：人为干扰区土地多被开发成林地、育苗地，自然植被残体等被移除，土壤腐殖质来源减少，加之由于土层翻动，土壤透气性变好，加快了养分分解与利用，土壤全量氮磷钾含量均值分别降低至0.433、0.902、15.325 g·kg-1，数据间的差异性和分布状态也发生变化;球状模型能较好地拟合无人为干扰区土壤全磷分布,而高斯模型则能较高地拟合两区其余养分指标的分布,两区理论模型的R²介于0.66和0.90之间，拟合精度高;土壤全量氮磷钾的理论模型中，均以无人为干扰区模型的R²高且RSS小;无人为干扰区全量氮磷钾的高值区均在植被覆盖度高的区域内。干扰程度较大的区域，土壤全氮和全磷含量较低，因此应补充适量氮肥和磷肥，满足养分需求。