Conservation planning under climate change: Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time

Climate warming challenges our approach to building systems of protected areas because it is likely to drive accelerating shifts in species distributions, and the projections of those future species distributions are uncertain. There are several important sources of uncertainty intrinsic to using species occurrence projections for reserve system design including uncertainty in the number of occurrences captured by any reserve selection solution, and uncertainty arising from the different approaches used to fit predictive models. Here we used the present and future predicted distributions of Iberian herptiles to analyze how dynamics and uncertainty in species distributions may affect decisions about resource allocation for conservation in space and time. We identified priority areas maximizing coverage of current and future (2020 and 2080) predicted distributions of 65 species, under “Mild” and “Severe” uncertainty. Next, we applied a return-on-investment analysis to quantify and make explicit trade-offs between investing in areas selected when optimizing for different times and with different uncertainty levels. Areas identified as important for conservation in every time frame and uncertainty level were the ones considered to be robust climate adaptation investments, and included chiefly already protected areas. Areas identified only under “Mild” uncertainty were considered good candidates for investment if extra resources are available and were mainly located in northern Iberia. However, areas selected only in the “Severe” uncertainty case should not be completely disregarded as they may become climatic refugia for some species. Our study provides an objective methodology to deliver “no regrets” conservation investments.     

A new approach to prioritizing marine fish and shellfish populations for conservation

There has been increasing awareness of the vulnerability of marine organisms to population extirpation and species extinction. While very few documented cases of species extinction exist in the marine environment, it is anticipated that managers will face the dilemma of prioritizing populations of marine fish and shellfish for protection in the near future. Current prioritization procedures have been developed from salmonid models with the intent of applying them to all marine organisms, and in some cases to freshwater and terrestrial taxa. In this review we provide evidence for the relevance of such a process for marine species and further suggest five broad categories of marine organisms that have distinctive traits influencing their genetic structure. The current prioritization models have been adapted to account for each of these species groups. Emphasis is placed on ‘Classical Marine Species’ which represent the opposite end of the continuum from the salmon model, displaying high within‐population genetic variance. From this category, three cod (Gadus morhua) stocks were selected to evaluate a revised scheme developed specifically for ‘Classical Marine Species’ that includes performance measures such as (i) reduction in number of spawning populations; (ii) reduction of Ne : Nc (ratio of effective to census population size); (iii) changes in life‐history traits; (iv) critical density for spawning success; and (v) patchy vs. continuous distribution pattern. When the salmonid scheme was applied, the cod examples were allocated low values, indicating that they were not under threat. However, when the revised scheme was applied, all three cod stocks were allocated high values, indicating that the revised scheme was more reflective of the particular life‐history traits of this category of organisms.     

Risk Prioritization Tool to Identify the Public Health Risks of Wildlife Trade: The Case of Rodents from Latin America

Wildlife trade (both formal and informal) is a potential driver of disease introduction and emergence. Legislative proposals aim to prevent these risks by banning wildlife imports, and creating ‘white lists’ of species that are cleared for importation. These approaches pose economic harm to the pet industry, and place substantial burden on importers and/or federal agencies to provide proof of low risk for importation of individual species. As a feasibility study, a risk prioritization tool was developed to rank the pathogens found in rodent species imported from Latin America into the United States with the highest risk of zoonotic consequence in the United States. Four formally traded species and 16 zoonotic pathogens were identified. Risk scores were based on the likelihood of pathogen release and human exposure, and the severity of the disease (consequences). Based on the methodology applied, three pathogens (Mycobacterium microti, Giardia spp. and Francisella tularensis) in one species (Cavia porcellus) were ranked as highest concern. The goal of this study was to present a methodological approach by which preliminary management resources can be allocated to the identified high‐concern pathogen–species combinations when warranted. This tool can be expanded to other taxa and geographic locations to inform policy surrounding the wildlife trade.     

基于Topsis和矩阵法的山区农村居民点整治时序分区研究

深入开展农村居民点整治是改善山区生活质量、加快山区新农村建设的重要途径。以湖北省十堰市郧阳区为例,在村级尺度上建立了基于topsis法的山区农村居民点整治适宜性和紧迫性评价模型,并运用时间管理优先矩阵法对评价单元进行整治优先级的划分,最后结合山区农村居民点整治实践将郧阳区农村居民点整治划分为优先整治区、次先整治区、后先整治区和暂不整治区四个时序分区。结果表明:（1）山区农村居民点整治的适宜性和紧迫性呈现区域差异,并且在村级尺度上的区域差异较乡镇尺度上明显,这表明在村级尺度上开展农村居民点整治更加合理;（2）通过耦合整治的适宜性和紧迫性来划分的农村居民点四级整治时序分区更符合山区整治实际,对山区农村居民点整治工作具有一定的指导意义。     

从森林生态效益价值理解“两山”理念

"绿水青山就是金山银山"是习近平生态文明思想的重要体现。"绿水青山"与"金山银山"关系不能静态地理解,需要在中国高质量发展、为了人民对美好生活的向往和生态文明建设等大局中进行综合分析。从森林生态效益价值角度阐释"两山"理念可以为深刻理解"两山"关系和营造生态产品价值实现的市场化路径和政府路径提供一定参考。文章通过文献和案例分析,总结绿水青山"就是"金山银山的判断缘由、逻辑层次和具体制度支撑:从价值判断和主观意识层面明确绿水青山的极端重要性,其价值就是金山银山;从市场经济的角度赋予绿水青山以交换价值,其对价就是金山银山;通过绿色发展路径满足人们对生态环保和经济发展的美好生活向往,其效益就是金山银山;坚持长效机制和制度公平,给绿水青山守护者以补偿,给绿水青山破坏者以惩罚,其成本代价就是金山银山。     

Assessing replacement cost of conservation areas: How does habitat loss influence priorities?

Replacement cost refers to the loss incurred if the ideal set of conservation areas cannot be protected due to compulsory inclusion or exclusion of some area candidates. This cost can be defined either in terms of loss of conservation value or in terms of extra acquisition cost, and it has a clear mathematical definition as a difference between the value of the unconstrained optimal solution and a constrained suboptimal solution. In this work we for the first time show how replacement cost can be calculated in the context of sequential reserve selection, where a reserve network is developed over a longer time period and ongoing habitat loss influences retention and availability of sites. In case of site exclusion, a question that can be asked is, “if a site belonging to the ideal (optimal) solution cannot be obtained, what expected loss in reserve network value does this entail by the end of the planning period given that the rest of the solution is re-organized in the most advantageous manner?” Heuristically, the proposed method achieves the ambit of combining irreplaceability and vulnerability into one score of site importance. We applied replacement cost analysis to conservation prioritization for wood-inhabiting fungi in Norway, identifying factors that influence replacement cost and urgency of site acquisition. Among other things we find that the reliability of loss rate information is important, because the optimal site acquisition order may be strongly influenced by underestimated loss rates.     

Setting conservation targets under budgetary constraints

Target-based spatial prioritization is the default approach in conservation resource allocation. Here, we clarify a poorly known feature of target-based spatial prioritization that may lead to an unbalanced allocation of resources between species or other biodiversity features. Highest per-species resources will be allocated to species occurring in costly and otherwise species-poor locations, whereas smallest per-species resources will be allocated to species that occur in species-rich locations at low-cost areas. Uncertainty in information about processes determining distributions of biodiversity features may lead to uncertainty in target setting. This can be a problem if unnecessarily high targets emerge to consume excessive resources thus detracting from other conservation action. Difficulties might be encountered in particular when there are many features, targets are given simultaneously to multiple different types of biodiversity features, or components of features, or when there are interactions or correlations between features. Consequently, we recommend that the costs of targets for individual features could be evaluated to screen for such targets that consume a disproportionate fraction of available resources. Costs of targets can be evaluated by a variant of the replacement cost technique. We also find that commonly used reserve selection methods, minimum set coverage, maximum coverage, and utility maximization differ significantly in how they treat targets and their costs.     

Administrative regions in conservation: Balancing local priorities with regional to global preferences in spatial planning

Site selection, reserve selection, and spatial conservation prioritization are terms that have been used for various algorithms and methods for the spatial allocation of conservation resources. Many of these methods start from the setting of targets or weights for different conservation features. Almost always there is only one set of targets or weights, thus implicitly assuming that priorities stay the same through the entire planning region. However, priorities for biodiversity governance could vary between regions. For example, priorities inside countries could be different from global priorities. Inside a country, different stakeholders could hold different priorities. Thus, priorities could vary between sub-regions while ecological processes, such as connectivity, cross borders without regard to administrative boundaries. Here we describe how it is possible to account for conservation priorities that vary between administrative sub-regions in conservation prioritization. We illustrate how assumptions about selection methods and feature weights can significantly influence the outcome mapping of conservation priority. We also show how placing high emphasis on local considerations reduces the cost-efficiency of the global conservation outcome. Analyses proposed here will be made publicly available in software (Zonation) capable for large-scale high-resolution conservation prioritization.     

县域农村居民点整理的潜力测算与时序分区

农村居民点整理工作关系到区域转型与城乡统筹发展,而充分调动相关行为主体的积极性则是其关键。该文以如皋市为例,依据政策指标法测算各镇农村居民点整理的现实潜力,并基于时间管理优先矩阵构建农村居民点整理优先度判别矩阵,提出反映农村居民点整理的相对重要性与紧迫性的区域重要性指数与紧迫性指数及评价方法,从各镇开展农村居民点整理工作的相对重要性和紧迫性程度出发对如皋市20个镇进行农村居民点整理的优先度进行判别,并进行时序分区,并针对各分区提出统筹建议。结果表明：1）如皋市未来9 a农村居民点整理的现实潜力为14 859.87 hm2,占现有农村居民点面积的46.73%和理论整理潜力的56.71%,各镇现实整理潜力之间具有明显差异,以长江镇和如城镇为最大,均超过1 000 hm2;2）如皋市20个乡镇可被划分为优先整理区、次先整理区、后先整理区和末先整理区4类,其中优先整理区现实整理潜力达3 598.04 hm2,次先整理区为926.87 hm2,后先整理区达4 539.31 hm2,末先整理区为5 435.64 hm2,仅优先整理区和次先整理区的总现实整理潜力就能满足如皋市未来9 a发展可能的建设用地需求;3）建议对优先整理区农村居民点整理项目予以资金扶持与指标倾斜,对次先整理区予以指标激励,对后先整理区政策引导与资金扶持并重,而对末先整理区以政策引导为主即可。该研究在一定程度上调动县、镇2级政府进行农村居民点整理的积极性,为区域农村居民点整理规划以及居民点整理项目的实施提供科学依据。     

Use of Multicriteria Risk Ranking of Zoonotic Diseases in a Developing Country: Case Study of Mongolia

Many developing countries face significant health burdens associated with a high incidence of endemic zoonoses and difficulties in integrated control measures for both the human and animal populations. The objective of this study was to develop and apply a multicriteria ranking model for zoonoses in Mongolia, a country highly affected by zoonotic disease, to inform optimal resource allocation at the national level. Diseases were evaluated based on their impact on human health, livestock sector health and the wider society through affects on the economic value of livestock, as well as the feasibility of control in both the human and livestock population. Data on disease in Mongolia were collected from various government departments including the Mongolian State Central Laboratory, the Mongolian Department of Veterinary and Animal Breeding, the Mongolian Ministry of Health, Mongolian National Center for Communicable Diseases, the National Center for Zoonotic Disease and expert opinion from a workshop with a number of Mongolian Government officials and researchers. A combined score for both impact of the disease and feasibility of its control was calculated. Five zoonotic diseases were determined to be of high priority from this assessment (i.e. ovine brucellosis, echinococcosis (hydatids), rabies, anthrax and bovine brucellosis). The results supported some of the findings for high‐priority diseases (namely brucellosis, rabies and anthrax) from a previous priority setting exercise carried out in Mongolia in 2011, but also identified and ranked additional animal diseases of public health importance. While the process of model development was largely Mongolian specific, the experience of developing and parameterizing this multicriteria ranking model could be replicated by other countries where zoonoses have substantive impacts on both animal and human health.