浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型

传统灰色GM（1，1）模型对稳定序列的中长期预测效果较好，对变化幅度较大的严重干旱年序列的中长期预测效果较差。本文采用中心逼近式灰色GM（1，1）模型，通过调整m值，使模型精度达到要求，从而建立浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型。拟合结果表明，该方法对预测浙江省下一个严重干旱发生年有一定的参考价值。     

荒漠戈壁区某煤矿矿井建设工程新增水土流失预测及防治对策

该煤矿井田面积46 km2,工程建设过程中将扰动损坏原地貌植被并产生弃土弃渣,可能形成煤矿塌陷区。经分析计算,煤矿建设过程中,损坏以天然稀疏草地为主体的水保设施面积85.86 hm2,产生弃土弃渣3.78×106t,煤矿塌陷区面积为540.24 hm2,煤矿建设新增土壤流失总量为22 667 t。根据水土流失预测结果,将水土流失防治区分为选煤厂工业场地及生活办公防治区等五个防治区,依据各自水土流失特点对位配置防治措施,达到工程建设与生态环境保护相协调的目的。     

基于DPSIR模型的黄土高原生态敏感性演变格局及驱动力分析

摸清生态系统敏感性时空演变格局，对其驱动因素及未来发展趋势进行探测是修复和提高生态系统稳定性的重要内容。黄土高原是世界上水土流失最严重和生态环境最脆弱的地区之一，探究该地区生态敏感性时空演变特征及驱动因素，科学划分生态敏感性治理分区对于促进国家生态文明建设具有重要意义。基于“驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应”（driving-pressure-state-impact-response，DPSIR）框架，耦合空间距离指数和全排列多边形图示指标法构建生态敏感性指标体系，使用地理信息演变图谱和地理探测器研究黄土高原2000—2020年5个时间点生态敏感性时空格局和驱动力，最终划分生态敏感性治理分区。结果表明：1）研究期内黄土高原生态敏感性表现为西北高、东南低的分布特征，时间上先增加后下降。2）研究期内黄土高原生态敏感性转移类型以波动稳定型为主，生态改善区面积占比最大（35.17%），变化0次和1次的面积占比62.06%，生态环境演变稳定向好。3）生态敏感性的各驱动因素中，NDVI和降水量以及两者与其他因子的交互作用对于黄土高原生态敏感性具有明显的驱动作用。4）2030年低度敏感将成为黄土高原的主要敏感类型；沙地和农灌区以及黄土高塬沟壑区的中西部是生态敏感性治理的重点地区。整体来看，黄土高原生态环境有所好转，生态治理措施取得了积极成效，该研究可为黄土高原生态治理及高质量发展提供参考。     

沙漠非饱和风沙土壤水分特征曲线预测的分形模型

应用VanGenuchten提出的土壤水分特征曲线公式,推导出了沙漠风沙非饱和土壤水分特征曲线的分形模型。通过对古尔班通古特沙漠地9种不同土壤样本利用中子水分仪和负压计实测的水分特征曲线资料反求得到相应的分形维数,分析了分形维数与土壤质地之间的关系,结果表明随着土壤质地从流动风沙土、半固定风沙土到固定风沙土的变化,其分形维数呈逐渐增大。此外,基于土壤颗粒的重量与粒径分布求出了古尔班通古特沙漠地风沙土壤粒径的分形维数。通过对土壤水分特征曲线的分形维数与土壤粒径的分形维数的对比,得知它们之间存在着良好的线性关系。根据此关系,利用易测得的土壤粒径分形维数结合所推导的分形模型,对土壤水分特征曲线进行了预测,模型的预测结果很好地吻合了实测的土壤水分特征曲线。这一结果对于实际工作中根据风沙土壤颗粒大小分布的分形维数来预测沙漠风沙土壤水分特征曲线具有一定的指导意义。     

Organic Carbon and Total Iron Effect on Soil Vis-SWNIR Spectraand Quantification of Their Contents Using PLS R Models

ABSTRACT

Many factors could influence simultaneously soil spectra. We aimed to study the single effect of organic carbon and total iron in soil visible and short-wave near-infrared spectra and to quantify their contents. Two datasets of soil mixture samples were prepared by mixing, in various fractions, an organic carbon-rich material with a total iron-rich material and then with a total iron-poor material. For these two datasets, contents in organic carbon are quite similar but contents in total iron are significantly different. Results show that samples of the same dataset have the same overall spectral shape. Organic carbon has a decreasing effect that affects the whole spectral range without showing any specific absorption peaks. By contrast, total iron has specific absorption peaks. Spectra of the second dataset characterized by soil mixtures with higher total iron contents were more compact within the spectral bands 400–440 and 920–950 nm. Besides, continuum removal enables to exaggerate absorption peaks of wavelengths linked to total iron content. Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS R) models of both total organic carbon and total iron assign high coefficients to the wavelengths that are considered relevant and conversely low coefficients to those that are considered irrelevant. Both organic carbon content and total iron content were well predicted. For these models, coefficients of determination were superior to 0.9 and RMSE was closed to zero. The global models calibrated on all the samples demonstrated that PLS R was able to integrate sample heterogeneity.     

Hierarchical classification of environmental factors and agricultural practices affecting soil fauna under cropping systems using Bt maize

The population dynamics of soil organisms under agricultural field conditions are influenced by many factors, such as pedology and climate, but also farming practices such as crop type, tillage and the use of pesticides. To assess the real effects of farming practices on soil organisms it is necessary to rank the influence of all of these parameters. Bt maize (Zea mays L.), as a crop recently introduced into farming practices, is a genetically modified maize with the Cry1Ab gene which produces a protein toxic to specific lepidopteran insect pests. To assess the effects of Bt maize on non-target soil organisms, we conducted research at a field site in Foulum (Denmark) with a loamy sand soil containing 6.4% organic matter. The study focused on populations of springtails (Collembola) and earthworms (Oligochaeta) from samples taken at the beginning and at the end of the maize crop-growing season during 2 consecutive years. Farming practices, soil parameters, the biological structure of soil communities, and the type and age of the crop at the time of sampling, were used as attributes to predict the total abundance of springtails and biomass of earthworms in general and the abundance or biomass for specific functional groups (epigeic, endogeic and anecic groups for earthworms, and eu-, eu to hemi-, hemi-, hemi to epi- and epiedaphic groups for Collembola). Predictive models were built with data mining tools, such as regression trees that predict the value of a dependent variable from a set of independent variables. Regression trees were constructed with the data mining system M5′. The models were evaluated by qualitative and quantitative measures of performance and two models were selected for further interpretation: anecic worms and hemi-epiedaphic Collembola. The anecic worms (r²=0.83) showed preferences for less clay and more silt soil with medium pH but were not influenced directly by farming practices. The biomass of earthworms was greater in early autumn than in spring or late autumn. Biomass of hemi-epiedaphic Collembola (r²=0.59) increased at the end of the maize growing season, while higher organic matter content and pH tended to increase their biomass in spring. Greater abundance of Collembola was also noted in early autumn if the crop was non-Bt maize. The models assessed by this research did not find any effects of the Bt maize cropping system on functional groups of soil fauna.     

中国东北地区中长期畜禽粪尿资源与污染潜势估算

规模化畜牧业、农牧分离等引起了一系列问题，尤其是饲养方式改变后，畜禽粪尿养分的循环和处理最值得关注。该文利用统计资料和文献数据，估算了东北三省畜禽粪尿产生量及其中的氮磷养分和COD含量，在此基础上评价和预测了2002～2020年畜禽粪尿资源及其环境风险。结果表明，2003年辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省畜禽粪尿耕地承载量分别为24、20、11 t/hm²，耕地畜禽粪尿承载量在空间上分布极不平衡。2003年，辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省禽粪尿排泄物进入水体的COD数量占畜禽粪尿、工业、生活排放COD总量的52％、65％、40％。预测表明，2010年、2020年畜禽养殖业对东北三省环境污染的风险将进一步扩大。因此，需要制定相应的政策法规来控制畜禽粪尿污染。     

加强自身建设 搞好山区水利水保工作

加强自身建设搞好山区水利水保工作山东省枣庄市山亭区水泉乡水利水保站（２７７２１５）我们水泉乡地处沂蒙山区西南部，全乡总面积１０７．５平方公里，是个纯山区乡。自党的十一届三中全会以来，我们水利水保站在乡党委、政府的直接领导下，立足山区实际，深化改革，同...     

近红外技术快速测定肉鸡粪便主要肥料成分含量的研究

该文探讨了利用近红外光谱分析技术(NIRS)快速测定肉鸡粪便主要肥料成分含量的可行性。在饲养试验过程中采集了肉鸡粪便样品183个，利用常规实验室分析方法测定了其中的总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、总钾(TK)、铵态氮(AN)、有效磷(EP)含量，利用近红外光谱仪取得了样品在1421.5～2572.2 nm波段的光谱，并使用偏最小二乘法(PLS)结合交互验证(CV)和留一检验法(LOO)建立了肉鸡粪便肥料成分的近红外光谱定标模型，同时利用该模型对20个样品的总氮、总磷、总钾、铵态氮、有效磷的含量进行预测，得出的5种主要肥料成分的预测值和真实值(实验室经典化学分析方法测定值)之间具有显著的相关性，其相关系数分别为0.9574，0.9590，0.9870，0.9572和0.9650。预测标准差分别为0.0014，0.0012，0.0012，2.3041×10^-4和0.3814。结果表明，利用近红外光谱法对肉鸡粪便风干样品的主要肥料成分进行快速测定是可行的。     

基于GIS的土壤水蚀预报能量力学模型研究

以能量力学原理作指导，地理信息系统技术作支持，通过对土壤侵蚀影响因子的综合作用过程与机理分析，构建土壤水蚀预报的能量力学模型，并在水蚀区通过典型小区和小流域试验予以完善。此研究对土壤侵蚀预报、水土保持与土地利用规划、生态恢复与重建等重大课题均有重要理论与实践意义．并能推动地理学的定量化、信息化与现代化进程。