Spatial sensitivity of species habitat patterns to scenarios of land use change (Switzerland)

Long-term societal trends which include decreasing population in structurally poorer regions and changes in agricultural policies have been leading to land abandonment in various regions of Europe. One of the consequences of this development includes spontaneous forest regeneration of formerly open-land habitats with likely significant effects on plant and animal diversity. We assess potential effects of agricultural decline in Switzerland (41,000 km²) and potential impacts on the spatial distribution of seven open-land species (insects, reptile, birds) under land-use change scenarios: (1) a business-as-usual scenario that extrapolates trends observed during the last 15 years into the future, (2) a liberalisation scenario with limited regulation, and (3) a lowered agricultural production scenario fostering conservation. All scenarios were developed in collaboration with socio-economists. Results show that spontaneous reforestation is potentially minor in the lowlands since combinations of socio-economic (better accessibility), topographic (less steep slopes), and climatic factors (longer growing seasons) favour agricultural use and make land abandonment less likely. Land abandonment, spontaneous reforestation, and subsequent loss of open-land, however, are potentially pronounced in mountainous areas except where tourism is a major source of income. Here, socio-economic and natural conditions for cultivation are more difficult, leading to higher abandonment and thus reforestation likelihood. Evaluations for open-land species core habitats indicate pronounced spatial segregation of expected landscape change. Habitat losses (up to 59%) are observed throughout the country, particularly at high elevation sites in the Northern Alps. Habitat gains under the lowered agricultural production scenario range between 12 and 41% and are primarily observed for the Plateau and the Northern Alps.     

Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark

The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals. The future sustainable organic dairy farming systems were deduced from participative sessions with stakeholders, and used to define specific scenarios and related key parameters. Parameterization of the scenarios was based on model simulations and the invoking of expert knowledge. Each scenario was designed to fulfil different aspects of sustainability. The business as usual scenario (BAU) was driven by economic incentives and implemented new technologies and measures to enhance productivity and efficiency. This scenario was expected to be the mainstream strategy of future organic dairy production in Denmark. In the animal welfare scenario (ANW), economic efficiency was subordinate to animal welfare, and measures to improve animal welfare, such as lower milk yield, extra grazing area and a deep-litter barn, were incorporated. The environmental scenario (ENV) was designed to minimize N losses into the environment, reduce emission of greenhouse gases and the use of fossil energy, and was based on self-sufficiency regarding nutrients and feed. The economic evaluation of the scenarios was based on quantification of farm profitability (i.e. net profit), whereas environmental evaluation was based on the quantification of the N-surplus per ha, emission of greenhouse gases, and use of fossil energy per kg energy-corrected milk (ECM).Compared to prolonging the current main stream strategy (BAU), the evaluation of scenarios revealed that investing in animal welfare comprised trade-offs regarding farm profitability, climate change and the use of fossil energy. In ANW, net profit per farm was almost 39 k€ lower than in BAU, whereas emission of greenhouse gases and energy per kg ECM was 8% and 3% higher, respectively. Minimizing environmental impact in ENV reduced local as well as global environmental impact without an economic trade-off. Greenhouse gas emission per kg ECM was 5% lower and fossil energy use was 11% lower than in BAU. The N-surplus of ENV was 80 kg per ha, whereas the N-surplus was approximately 116 in both BAU and ANW. Prolonging the current main stream strategy (BAU) resulted in a high local environmental impact, a moderate global environmental impact and a high economic risk related to changes in milk price or costs.     

Scaling up nature-based solutions for climate-change adaptation: Potential and benefits in three European cities

Many exemplary projects have demonstrated that Nature-based Solutions (NBS) can contribute to climate change adaptation, but now the challenge is to scale up their use. Setting realistic policy goals requires knowing the amount of different NBS types that can fit in the urban space and the benefits that can be expected. This research aims to assess the potential for a full-scale implementation of NBS for climate-change adaptation in European cities, the expected benefits and co-benefits, and how these quantities relate to the urban structure of the cities.We selected three case studies: Barcelona (Spain), Malmö (Sweden), and Utrecht (the Netherlands), and developed six scenarios that simulate the current condition, the full-scale implementation of different NBS strategies (i.e., installing green roofs, de-sealing parking areas, enhancing vegetation in urban parks, and planting street trees), and a combination of them. Then we applied spatially-explicit methods to assess, for each scenario, two climate change-related benefits, i.e. heat mitigation and stormwater regulation, and three co-benefits, namely carbon storage, biodiversity potential, and overall greenness. Finally, by breaking down the results per land use class, we investigated how the potential and benefits vary depending on the urban form.Most scenarios provide multiple benefits, but each one is characterized by a specific mix. In all cities, a full-scale deployment of green roofs shows the greatest potential to reduce runoff and increase biodiversity, while tree planting -either along streets or in urban parks– produces the greatest impact on heat mitigation and greenness. However, these results entail interventions of different size and in different locations. Planting street trees maximizes interventions in residential areas, but key opportunities for integrating most NBS types also lie in commercial and industrial areas. The results on the pros and cons of each scenario can support policy-makers in designing targeted NBS strategies for climate change adaptation.