Demography,population dynamics and sustainability of the Patagonian sheep flocks

Sheep production is the main agricultural activity in Patagonia. Since the middle of the 20th century, sheep numbers have declined steadly. We used historical records of stock numbers in four ranches to analyze the importance of regional factors so as to explain the decline of the Patagonian sheep flocks. We found that the stocks of all the four ranches declined with a similar trend but fluctuated independently, thus reflecting a complex interaction between regional and local factors. Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and vegetation physiognomy explained most of the differences in the flocks declining rates. We estimated demographic parameters for two ranches differing in their average annual growth rates. From these demographic parameters, we constructed deterministic and stochastic matrix models to establish the relative contribution of demographic processes to the observed decline. Matrix models projected a faster decline than that observed in the ranch used to calibrate the model. This suggests that the recorded demographic parameters could drive most stocks to extinction in less than 100 years. We concluded that the observed dynamics would be generated by demographic processes, but extinction is delayed or avoided by a continuous intake of animals. Ewe survival was the most important parameter in controlling the growth rate of the flocks. The environmental stochastic model showed that the growth of the stocks was highly sensitive to increases in the frequency of good years (those that produce a positive growth) and in the transition from normal years to bad years. All these evidences point out the existence of biological constraints to sheep production in Patagonia: ANPP and vegetation structure would control flock population dynamics throughout its effects on key demographic parameters, ewe survival and marking rate (a recruitment measure). Our model results suggest that the decline in sheep numbers, and hence the sustainability of the activity, is driven, to a large extent, by the demographic characteristics of the flocks.     

From on-farm solid-set sprinkler irrigation design to collective irrigation network design in windy areas

In this paper, a contribution to the design of collective pressurised irrigation networks in solid-set sprinkler-irrigated windy areas is presented. The methodology is based on guaranteeing minimum on-farm performance, using a historical hourly wind speed database and a ballistic solid-set irrigation simulation model. The proposed method was applied to the Montesnegros Irrigation District (central Ebro basin, Spain). The district irrigates an area of 3493 ha using an on-demand schedule. The average wind speed in the area is 2.8 m s⁻¹. An analysis of district water records showed that farmers often reduce water demand when the wind speed is high, but their irrigation decision making is limited by the capacity of the irrigation network and by the unpredictable character of local winds. Simulations were performed for 11 irrigation seasons, 2 triangular sprinkler spacings (18 m × 18 m and 18 m × 15 m), and 2 sprinkler models. The percentage of monthly suitable time for irrigation was determined for four management strategies. The first one was based on a wind speed threshold (3 m s⁻¹), while the other three were based on three levels (standard, relaxed and restrictive) of two irrigation performance parameters: the Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient (CU) and the Wind Drift and Evaporation Losses (WDEL). The standard strategy classified the time as suitable for irrigation when CU ≥ 84% and WDEL ≤ 20%. The thresholds limits of the irrigation parameters for the relaxed strategy were CU ≥ 80% and WDEL ≤ 25%. Finally, the restrictive strategy used thresholds of CU ≥ 90% and WDEL ≤ 15%. The suitable time for the first strategy (56%) was always lower than for the standard and the relaxed strategies (with respective average values of 75 and 86%), and higher than for the restrictive strategy (30%). In order to design the collective network, the hydrant operating time was equalled to the suitable time for irrigation. The differences in the cost of the collective network plus the on-farm equipment were particularly relevant between the restrictive strategy and the other three. Differences in suitable operating time were clear between sprinkler spacings, and less evident between sprinkler models. The application of the proposed methodology may be limited by the availability of historical wind speed records and CU estimates for different combinations of sprinkler models, sprinkler spacings and wind speed.     

Inverse Modeling to Quantify Irrigation System Characteristics and Operational Management

Remotely sensed (RS) data is a major source to obtain spatialdata required for hydrological models. The challenge for thefuture is to obtain besides the more direct observable data(landcover, leaf area index, digital elevation model andevapotranspiration), non-visible data such as soilcharacteristics, groundwater depth and irrigation practices.In this study we have explore the option of using inversemodeling to obtain these non-RS-visible data. For a commandarea in Haryana, India, we applied for the 2000–2001 rabiseason a RS-GIS-combined inverse modeling approach to derivenon-RS-visible data required in the regional application ofhydrological models. A Genetic Algorithm loaded stochasticphysically based soil-water-atmosphere-plant model (SWAP) wasdeveloped for the inverse problem and used in the study. Theresults showed good agreement with the inventoried data suchas soil hydraulic properties, sowing dates, groundwaterdepths, irrigation practices and water quality. The deriveddata could be used to predict the state of the system at anytime in the cropping season, which can be used to evaluateoperational management strategies.     

永寿县沙棘人工林生长规律初探

本文对永寿县沙棘良种选育基地试验区人工沙棘林单株树高、 30 cm处直径进行了系统的研究 ,结果表明 :1.沙棘 30 cm处直径和树高的速生期一般都出现在第 2～ 5年 ,连年生长量高峰期出现在 3～ 4年之间 ,平均生长量的最大值出现在第 4～ 5年之间。 2 .分别对沙棘树高、 30 cm处直径与树龄进行回归分析 ,得出了沙棘树高、30 cm处直径的生长模型和树冠的生长模型 :D0 .3 0 =10 ( 0 .8774- 1.92 0 1/A) 、H =- 0 .2 784 + 0 .6 2 89A- 0 .0 30 9A2、Cw=1.6 43× 10 0 .2 2 9- 0 .5 3 89/A。     

计算机辅助设计线图数据处理的灰色模型与方法

在分析计算机辅助设计线图数据处理的现状后，提出了其线图数据处理的灰色模型参数估计的函数变换法。实例表明，该方法简单实用，值得在计算机辅助设计中推广使用。     

蝇蛆养殖技术的研究：Ⅰ.影响成蝇卵量的因子作用模型

蝇蛆含有丰富的营养物质,是一种很有前途的动物蛋白源。本文采用正交旋转组合设计方法建立了影响种蝇卵量的多目标因子作用模型,并进行了主因子效应和交互效应分析。结果表明:种蝇饲养室温度是影响种群产卵历期的主因子;饲养室温度和饲养密度是影响前20天总卵量的主因子;饲养密度和光照时数对种群卵量的交互效应显著;饲养室温度和光照时数对种群产卵历期的交互效应显著。     

Corn (Zea mays L.) Grain and Stover Yield as Affected by Soil Residual Mineral Nitrogen

Evaluation of nitrogen (N) dynamic in soil using regression equations is important for proper determination of N fertilization. A 3-year field experiment was conducted to (1) develop the best-fitted regression model relating corn grain and stover yield to soil residual ammonium (NH₄)-N and nitrate (NO₃)-N for corn yield prediction and (2) evaluate how such a model can be beneficial to the health of ecosystem by predicting the appropriate rates of N fertilization for corn production. Soil NH₄-N and NO₃-N were determined at corn harvest at the depths of 0–30 and 30–60 cm. Nitrogen fertilizer rates and soil mineral N accounted for a maximum of 93% variation in corn grain yield. Soil mineral N enhanced corn yield more than N fertilizer. Totals of 63.1 and 14.1 kg/ha of soil residual NO₃-N and NH₄-N were found in the 0- to 60-cm depth, indicating the importance of performing soil N tests.     

不同性别龙胜凤鸡生长曲线的拟合与分析

为了解龙胜凤鸡的生长发育规律，本研究运用Logistic、Gompertz和Bertalanffy3种非线性模型分别对龙胜凤鸡的生长情况进行曲线拟合和分析。研究结果表明，3种模型均能较好的模拟龙胜凤鸡生长曲线，拟合度假。）均高于0．99，其中以Bertalanffy模型的拟合度最高（公、母鸡都为0．997）。因此，运用3种模型对龙胜凤鸡进行生长曲线的拟合和比较分析是可行的，本研究也为及时了解龙胜凤鸡的生长发育规律提供了参考。     

茶秆竹高生长模型的比较及组合选择

通过对 5种 S增长模型的比较及组合选择 ,结果表明 :S增长模型都具有单调性、渐近性和拐点 ,此特征能客观地反映诸多自然和经济规律 .通过一定的加权组合 ,用多个增长模型来反映 S变化过程 ,可以提高拟合的精度 ,多个模型的组合要优于单个模型 .用加权模型可以很好地反映茶秆竹的高生长过程 ,在实际生产中可选择 yp2 或 yp 3 组合     

Evaluation of smallholder pig production systems in North Vietnam: Pig production management and pig performances

This study investigated the productive adaptability of pig breeds under different smallholder production conditions in Vietnam, comparing an indigenous with a Vietnamese improved breed. Fieldwork was conducted in four villages with different remoteness in North Vietnam from 2001 to 2002, in 64 households keeping the improved Mong Cai or indigenous Ban as sow breeds and progeny for fattening. Four visits per farm yielded 234 structured interviews. Reproductive performances were derived from 135 litters. Individual weights of pigs (n = 755) were obtained. Data were analysed by regression, linear and generalised linear, especially loglinear models.

Two distinct pig production systems were identified, that differed in remoteness, market access, resource availability, distribution of pig breeds and pig production intensity. Higher performances of 1.4 and 1.5 litters year^− 1, 8.4 and 8.4 piglets weaned litter^− 1, 66.6 and 93.0 kg piglets weaned sow^− 1 year^− 1, and 136 and 177 g day^− 1 ADG were found in two villages near town with semi-intensive production conditions and a high rate of improved Mong Cai sows and MC and LW × MC offspring in the observed population. Lower performances of 1.1 and 1.1 litters year^− 1, 4.6 and 5.5 piglets weaned litter^− 1, 20.5 and 30.9 kg piglets weaned sow^− 1 year^− 1, and 66 and 85 g day^− 1 ADG were observed in parallel to higher incidences of indigenous Ban pigs away from town under extensive conditions. Total live weight offtake per household per year was higher near town and in one village distant to town. MC and LW × MC remained even under demand-driven conditions below the performance potential reported for improved genotypes. Under resource-driven conditions with a saving-oriented production pattern, the higher-yielding but more demanding Mong Cai might not be an efficient production alternative as a further performance reduction can be assumed. A considerable live weight output was observed under resource-driven conditions and with a higher percentage of crossbred LW × Ban offspring in the population, possibly representing a promising production alternative. Factors influencing the performance expression of pigs, and the suitability of different methods for the assessment of performance parameters on-farm are discussed.