发展我国洪水保险的制度思考——美国洪水保险制度的借鉴与启示

洪水保险是一项重要的非工程防洪措施.美国是世界上最早建立国家强制性洪水保险体制的国家,经过艰难曲折的探索,闯出了一条成功之路.我国的洪水保险体制还处于积极探索阶段.中美两国尽管国情差异较大,但以洪水保险作为推进洪泛区洪水风险管理的经济手段,并以立法和国家计划等措施来保障实施的作法是值得借鉴的.本文就美国洪水保险制度的发展与沿革,寻找对我国建立洪水保险制度一些有益的启示,并就此提出了一些建设性意见.     

油气管道风险管理技术现状及对策

介绍了国内外油气管道风险管理技术的研究现状、应用成果及最新的发展趋势,对比分析了国内外油气管道风险管理技术的差距,强调了油气管道风险管理的重要性,指出了油气管道风险技术的发展方向,为油气管道安全运行提供了技术支持.     

再论生长的冗余

生长冗余概念是由盛承发在１９９０年首先提出来的。本文从作物个体与群体对立统一关角度出发提出了作物生长冗余的一个解释。盛承发提出的随机波动环境假说可以导致生长冗余的产生；但是，他从物种利益角度出发解释生物进化还有待商榷。本文还综述了黄土高原阗干旱雨养农业地区小麦根系生长冗余问题，并根据前入工作提出适度增加播种深度和苗期叶片刈割等高产栽培措施。     

热带牧草对高温干旱适应性特征特性的研究

对美国矮象草、毛花雀稗、百喜草等热带牧草具有的特殊组织与细胞结构进行了探讨。从而确认这几种热带牧草对高温干旱、酸、瘠有很强的适应性，是适合红壤丘陵区种植的优良草种，可大力推广     

甘肃地方苜蓿农家品种脯氨酸积累能力与抗旱性的研究

本文依据“脯氨酸维持积累时间”和“脯氨酸维持积累量”指标评介了四个甘肃地方苜蓿农家品种的抗旱能力。结果表明:敦煌苜蓿的抗旱能力高于会宁、秦安、灵台苜蓿,其中会宁苜蓿居二,灵台苜蓿抗旱性最差。这一抗旱排序与叶片相对含水量及气孔指标所得到的结果相一致。证明了“脯氨酸维持积累时间”和“脯氨酸维持积累量”可以作为首蓿抗旱性的鉴定指标。     

The influence of sampling scheme and interpolation method on the power to detect spatial effects of forest birds in Ontario (Canada)

Spatial ecology is becoming an increasingly important component of resource management, and the general monitoring of how human activities affect the distribution and abundance of wildlife. Yet most work on the reliability of sampling strategies is based on a non-spatial analysis of variance paradigm, and little work has been done assessing the power of alternative spatial methods for creating reliable maps of animal abundance. Such a map forms a critical response variable for multiple scale studies relating landscape structure to biotic function. The power to reconstruct patterns of distribution and abundance is influenced by sample placement strategy and density, the nature of spatial auto-correlation among points, and by the technique used to extrapolate points into an animal abundance map. Faced with uncertainty concerning the influence of these factors, we chose to first synthesize a model reference system of known properties and then evaluate the relative performance of alternative sampling and mapping procedures using it. We used published habitat associations of tree nesting boreal neo-tropical birds, a classified habitat map from the Manitou Lakes area of northwestern Ontario, and point count means and variances determined from field studies in boreal Canada to create 4 simulated models of avian abundance to function as reference maps. Four point sampling strategies were evaluated by 4 spatial mapping methods. We found mixed-cluster sampling to be an effective point sampling strategy, particularly when high habitat fragmentation was avoided by restricting samples to habitat patches >10 ha in size. We also found that of the 4 mapping methods, only stratified ordinary point kriging (OPK) was able to generate maps that reproduced an embedded landscape-scale spatial effect that reduced nesting bird abundance in areas of higher forest age-class fragmentation. Global OPK was effective only for detecting broader, regional-scale differences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

模糊隶属法对玉米苗期耐旱性的拟合分析

在略高于玉米萎蔫系数的干旱条件下,以出苗率和生物学产量耐旱系数之乘积为指标,测定了17个玉米自交系和10个杂交种的苗期抗旱性。并用模糊隶属法,以干旱胁迫下的胚芽鞘长度,出苗率,根重,生物学产量,脯氨酸含量,电导率和离体叶片保水力等指标对各品种耐旱性进行了拟合分析。结果表明,在略高于萎蔫系数的干旱条件下,以出苗率和生物学产量的耐旱系数之乘积为指标,可以准确鉴定玉米苗期的耐旱性,与耐旱性的综合评价拟合良好(相关系数r=0.914)。     

吉林省荒地资源生态适宜性评价

本文从吉林省荒地资源的实际出发 ,在荒地资源生态适宜性评价基本理论的指导下 ,采用地理信息系统方法 ,对吉林省荒地资源进行了生态适宜性评价。通过空间数据和属性数据的融合、分析、处理 ,可以直观获得荒地资源的生态适宜度等级 ,从而提高评价效率 ,为荒地资源的合理开发利用提供科学依据。     

西北干旱灾害及其气候趋势研究

利用西北五省1950～2000年降水、温度和农作物旱灾面积资料,用降水的Z指标法,农作物受旱成灾率确定了西北干旱指标和旱灾等级,分析了西北旱灾特征及气候变化趋势。表明西北农业旱灾以70、90年代最严重,而且呈增加趋势,气温在升高,降水在减少。根据预测21世纪前十年西北干旱有所减轻。