基于KPCA-WLSSVM的建筑能耗预测模型

为降低建筑能耗影响因素间复杂相关性对模型性能的影响,建立了一种基于KPCA-WLSSVM的建筑能耗预测模型。利用核主元分析(KPCA)对输入变量进行数据压缩,消除变量之间的相关性,简化模型结构;进一步采用加权最小二乘支持向量机(WLSSVM)方法建立建筑能耗预测模型,同时结合一种新型混沌粒子群-模拟退火混合优化(CPSO-SA)算法对模型参数进行优化,以提高模型的预测性能及泛化能力。通过将KPCA-WLSSVM模型方法应用于某办公建筑能耗的预测中,并与WLSSVM、LSSVM及RBFNN模型相比,实验结果表明,KPCA-WLSSVM模型方法能有效提高建筑能耗预测精度。     

基于LS-SVM的小水电站年发电量智能预测模型

针对小水电站年发电量序列的特点,将最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machine,LS-SVM)回归模型引入年发电量预测领域,并给出了相应的过程和算法。与常规基于人工神经网络(artificial neural net-works,ANN)的智能预测方法比较,该模型优点是明显的:①将神经网络迭代学习问题转化为直接求解多元线性方程;②整个训练过程中有且仅有一个全局极值点,确定了预测的稳定性。最后,一个实际的预测例子表明:该模型实现容易、预测准确,适用于小水电站预测。     

无过载双流道排污泵性能预测研究

在进行无过载双流道排污泵设计时,利用公式预测的性能和试验结果有较大误差。对此,通过流动分析指出,普通离心泵相对液流角与叶片出口安放角相差不大,而在双流道叶轮出口速度三角形中,相对液流角与叶片出口安放角相差较大,因此,用叶片出口安放角进行性能预测是造成误差的主要原因。提出了双流道泵无过载性能预测的计算方法:!2应取叶片背面出口安放角;计算叶片排挤系数时,叶片厚度应取内流道出口处叶片厚度。试验表明,该计算方法能大大提高性能预测的准确性,预估最大轴功率值及其位置较普通计算方法误差大幅度减小。     

两种有效的预测方法理论分析及实践

预算实际上是一种建模,即根据过去和现在已有的信息建立一个从过去引伸到未来的模型。而时序分析法和灰色系统理论是两种有效的预测方法。为此,介绍了这两种预测方法的原理,并预测了新疆兵团的农机情况。其结果表明:未来10年,新疆农机总动力和投入将会有较大幅度的增长,而农业机械化程度将趋于最高值。     

农机总动力的预测及多种数学方法的应用比较

应用多种数学方法对青海省历年的农机总动力进行了预测，取得了良好的效果。通过对这些数学方法的应用比较。分析了其中每种方法的适用范围和优缺点。为相关管理部门进行正确的决策提供了依据，并为正确选用各种数学方法进行预测具有指导意义。     

商丘式区农业用水量预报模型研究

预测试区的年用水量,便于预报地下水位,采取合理的措施来化解该地区存在的供水与需水矛盾,确保当地工农业生产和人民正常生活.在河南省商丘试区,建立了农业用水量预报模型.     

A reservoir operational rule for irrigation in Japan

Operation of a reservoir for irrigation is more complicated and difficult than that for domestic water supply in Japan, owing to the fact that a requirement for irrigation takes various value depending upon effective rainfall on farmland, soil condition, and so on. Therefore, the reservoirs should be operated to correspond with demand, inflow, and unknown droughts occurring in the future. However, the reservoirs have been operated under operators' experiences without formal operational rules, because any effective theories or methods have been neither developed nor used in Japan at present.On operation of the reservoirs, there are two targets — promotion of effective release and restriction of release in preparation for droughts — conflicting with each other. It is useful to set up the operation with Required Storage for Drought Curve (RSDC) Method to achieve reasonable operation harmonizing those two targets. RSDC is composed with Target Line (TL) and Restrictive Release Lines (RRLs). TL is a target storage level to guarantee that storage will never empty until the end of the irrigation period under a certain probability. If actual storage remains above TL, effective release will be promoted. RRLs are storage levels pointing out the basis of restricting release. If actual storage falls below TL, release will be restrained in accordance with RRLs in order to get over uncertain droughts occurring in the future.In this paper, the theory of RSDC is described and the effectiveness of Rule Curve (RC) based on RSDC Method is illustrated by simulation on a single reservoir for irrigation.     

基于遗忘因子和误差修正的水文实

在进行水文预报时，由于影响河道洪水的因素众多，常用的水文预报模型往往不符合实际水文系统的客观规律。对这类系统的参数辨识要求算法具有较强的实时跟踪能力，以适应模拟或预测洪水运动变化过程的要求。利用洪水预报误差信息，对BP网络洪水实时预报校正模型与方法进行了探讨，提出了两种实时预报方法。第一：运用最小二乘递推算法，引入时变遗忘因子实时跟踪模型中时变参数的变化，建立了神经网络在非线性系统中动态的系统输入、输出数据之间的映射关系。第二：利用BP网络模型对误差的可识别性，将模型对输出变量的预报误差再次作为输出变量，对网络可能预报的误差进行实时修正。计算实例表明：以上两种方法提高了神经网络在水文领域的预报精度，给BP神经网络的实时预报方法提供了新的途径。     

防旱减灾经济效益计算方法初探

利用大量的统计资料，研究了防旱减灾经济效益的计算方法，其中重点提出了临时抗旱措施的经济效益计算方法，可供今后计算抗旱效益时应用和参考。     

Case study on an integrated operation planning of multiple reservoirs for irrigation in Japan

In spite of several attempts at integrated operation planning, multiple reservoirs in Japan have been operated by trial and error without any formal rules. Subjects of integrated operation are not only showing optimal usage of daily storage levels as an operational policy but also providing a countermeasure for droughts.Objectives of this study are to make a formal operation rule of multiple reservoirs for irrigation using the theory of Required Storage for Drought Curve (RSDC) Method and to propose operational policy for multiple reservoirs as large water supply systems. The Iwaki river basin, on which there are four reservoirs for irrigation parallel with each other, is considered to be a model river basin with a large water system for this case study.From results of simulations using historical data, comparing an individual operation rule with an integrated operation rule on several indices, effectiveness of the latter rule is recognized. Under integrated operation, water losses are minimized and excessive water conservation can be avoided over the whole area to benefit while target river discharge is maintained at key control points because water usage from all reservoirs is well balanced in relation to water availability.