灰色—周期外延组合模型在参考作物腾发量预测中的应用

参考作物腾发量ET0是计算作物需水量、制定灌溉制度和进行水资源优化配置的重要参数之一。因参考作物腾发量随季节性变化,并呈现以年为周期波动的特点;在这种情况下,提出了一种基于灰色GM（1,1）与周期外延相结合的预测模型,即灰色-周期外延组合模型。以沈阳、鞍山、铁岭、盘锦4个地区1997—2006年参考作物腾发量季节值为例进行分析和模拟。结果表明：运用灰色-周期外延组合模型预测参考作物腾发量比原有的GM（1,1）模型预测精度高。该模型预测过程简单,预测结果可靠,适应性强。因此,该模型可广泛的应用于参考作物腾发量的季节预测。     

旱作农业耕作机械系统的探究分析

农业机械发展的方向是机械化、自动化,是农业可持续发展的最终方向。文章结合经过多年的实际农业工作经验,阐述了对机械化农业生产耕作的认识,供同仁研究参考之用。     

A longitudinal examination of business performance indicators for drought-affected farms

Frequent severe droughts can financially cripple dryland farm businesses and farmers need effective business strategies to survive. This study analysed the economic performance of 123 farms in a rainfed agricultural region of Australia from 2004 to 2009, a period that included severe droughts in 2006 and 2007. The business indicators examined were business equity, operating profit/ha, return on capital, and the debt to income ratio and the droughts altered these indicators for many of the farms surveyed. Over the study period the equity position of just over 60% of farms declined, although 55% of these had more than 80% equity in the business initially and were able to absorb a short term decline in equity caused by the drought. In addition, 9% of farms had levels of equity below 80% at the start of the investigation, but actually improved their equity position by the end of the study. Strong links were found between wheat yield and the business indicators. Mostly this was due to the crop dominant nature of the farm businesses where wheat was by far the main crop. However, farms that were able to capitalise on favourable conditions in other years were better placed to enhance or recover their financial position. Farms that cropped a higher proportion of their farm area were at an advantage. Structural indicators, including the percentage of area cropped, had a small but significant effect on the debt to income ratio, the return on capital and operating profit. Farm diversity also favourably lessened the debt to income ratio. Other factors, including farm size did not influence the outcome of any business indicator. Farms that remained resilient, despite the serious droughts were those that cropped more than 50% of their farm area, were prudent in their expenditure, maintained some enterprise diversity and often generated wheat yields in each year that were near the yield potential for that year.     

复杂管系水轮机调节系统非线性建模与分析

为了深入揭示水轮机调节系统的非线性本质,研究了非线性水轮机调节系统的建模及动力学问题.在引水系统为复杂管道情况下,考虑水轮机调节系统中传递系数随运行工况变化而呈现的非线性,引入水轮机非线性传递系数,建立了复杂引水管系时的水轮机调节系统非线性数学模型.使用直接代数判据进行理论分析,得到了系统Hopf分支临界点组成的曲线.理论分析表明：水轮机调节系统响应在曲线的一侧区域内是稳定的,在另一侧是不稳定的.通过数值模拟,分析了Hopf分叉点两侧水轮机调节系统稳定性的变化情况,验证了理论分析结果的正确性,得到了使水轮机调节系统处在稳定区域内的调速器PID参数的范围.通过分岔图、Poincare映射图、功率谱图、时域图、相轨迹图、频谱图等,综合分析了随水轮机调节系统参数变化时,系统非线性动力学行为特性.该分析方法与结果,可为水电站系统的安全稳定运行提供理论依据.     

Reduction of Seed Dormancy in Echinacea pallida (Nutt.) Nutt. by In-dark Seed Selection and Breeding

Strong seed dormancy has been an obstacle for field production of Echinacea species. Previous research on overcoming Echinacea seed dormancy has been extensive and focused on treatment methods, which involve time and expense, and are incompatible with organic production if synthetic chemicals are used. We have attempted to genetically reduce seed dormancy through selection and breeding in Echinacea, by using Echinacea pallida as a model species. Three accessions were used in this study. Nine parent plants of each accession selected from early, in-dark germinated seeds (in-dark plants) or from late, in-light seeds (in-light plants) were planted and grouped by accession and germination treatment method for seed production through a polycross method. Germination tests indicated that these in-dark plants produced seed (in-dark seed) with significantly reduced seed dormancy when tested under light or dark condition in comparison to the seed of the in-light plants (in-light seed). Among the three accessions, the in-dark seed germinated at much higher rates than did the in-light seed, more than 2× at 25 °C under light and up to an 83× increase in darkness, and up to an 8× increase over the corresponding parental seed lots under comparable germination conditions. In addition to these increases in germination, the in-dark seed showed early and synchronized germination as compared to the in-light seed. Since these results were achieved through only one cycle of selection and breeding, they strongly suggest that we have developed a very effective method for modifying seed dormancy in Echinacea.     

DEMAND FOR AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS IN TAIWAN: AN APPLICATION OF THE GENERALIZED MODEL

ABSTRACT

Policy decisions on what aquaculture products to develop require information on consumer demand for cultured species. However, information on the structure of demand for aquaculture products is limited and what few studies there are in Taiwan, where aquaculture is a major industry, suffer from methodological problems. To clear up some of these problems, we used modified nonnested testing techniques and performance forecasting to determine which generalized models could best estimate the demand for Taiwanese aquaculture products. The results of modified nonnested testing of the aquaculture demand system showed that prices predetermined and quantities predetermined could be used to estimate demand. The generalized ordinary demand model was able to better forecast performance than the generalized inverse demand model. We used the likelihood ratio test to discriminate among the four competing models for the generalized ordinary model; the AIDS model could be more suitably applied to the data. A more general model that is able to incorporate different dynamic structures (partial adjustment, first autoregressive, and static). This general framework is applied to the AIDS model. The first autoregressive AIDS model we used to calculate the own and cross-price elasticities for milkfish, tilapia, shrimp, shellfish, and carps found that price elasticities varied across fish type, that some products had high long-run own price elasticities, and that the demand for aquaculture products was largely determined by inertia.     

Risk of exceeding bioeconomic limit reference points in shrimp aquaculture systems

Abstract

Designing intelligent management strategies for shrimp aquaculture systems require recognising the uncertainty and risks associated with different processes of aquaculture production. To account for natural variability and other sources of uncertainty, estimates of appropriate aquaculture bio‐economic indicators are needed to re‐evaluate periodically the production system and establish new reference points and corresponding management strategies. This paper concentrates on this aspect of the management process and presents a simple classification of indicators and reference points for aquaculture production systems. The uncertainty causing variability in the estimated values of bio‐economic parameters is incorporated through the use of Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the probability of exceeding limit reference points. To illustrate this process, the risks (i.e. probabilities of exceeding bioeconomic limit reference points) associated to alternative timing of harvesting decisions were estimated by randomly generating uncertain prices and natural mortalities with the appropriate probability density functions and corresponding variance. Alternative approaches to deal with risk and uncertainty in data limited management contexts are discussed.     

长期定位施肥对暗棕壤肥力和作物产量的影响

根据29年肥料效应长期定位监测试验结果,研究了不同施肥处理对作物产量及土壤肥力、养分水平等指标的影响.结果表明:不同施肥处理作物产量差异较大,有机肥和氮、磷化肥的配合施用对提高作物产量、增加土壤养分作用十分明显.     

玉米的节水栽培技术

由于我国许多地区面临水资源不足,农业的发展尤其需要水利建设支持,所以在发展农业的同时要提高其节水栽培技术。并且,作为对环境的保护,我们也应该适当发展节水栽培技术。我国是人口大国,玉米作为主要粮食作物的生产,其节水栽培技术更具有重要意义。合理利用每一滴水,能够切实提高玉米的产量,亦能促进资源的利用率。     

县级气象局GIS决策服务系统研制

县级气象局GIS决策服务系统将GIS技术引入气象领域中,充分利用GIS系统的矢量地图和属性数据动态交互的优势,突出表现了多源气象信息的地域性和空间性,提高了系统的可视化和易用性。将为气象预报和气象服务人员提供一个非常有效的工具平台。