复杂天然气管网系统运行期可靠性评价体系

中国天然气管道行业正朝着规模化、网络化方向发展,整个管网系统运行期的输气保障能力受到广泛关注,对其完成输送任务的可靠性进行评价显得尤为重要。为了保障大型天然气管网系统安全、高效运行与管理,对管网系统可靠性指标、系统可靠度计算、单元可靠度计算、可靠性数据及可靠性管理开展了研究。提出了包括可靠性类、维修性类以及健壮性类的3层系统可靠性评价指标体系,建立了基于管道工艺仿真的物理管网系统可靠度分布式阶梯计算模型,能够实现管网/管道/站场系统可靠度的简化、快速计算。将该计算模型在某压气站进行案例试算,按照站场系统→典型结构→基本回路→设备单元的顺序,将管网拓扑结构由上至下拆分为不同层级的可靠性框图,再利用单体设备可靠度由下至上依次计算各层级可靠度,获得该压气站在不同压缩机启停方案下的可靠度。该研究成果为今后持续开展大型天然气管网系统可靠性评价及管理奠定了基础。     

水砂射流冲蚀作用下临近燃气管道可靠性

为研究水砂射流冲蚀作用导致临近燃气管道的失效概率,分析了管材的临界应变与砂粒在管壁表面形成塑变脊的影响,推导出冲蚀磨损率预测方程。利用Fluent 软件模拟计算水管泄漏射流速度、冲蚀面积分布,并结合冲蚀磨损率预测方程构建冲蚀磨损速率方程。最后基于最小壁厚准则,建立了燃气管道失效概率的计算方法。研究结果表明:①通过临界间距判定分析,可获得不同水管内压、冲蚀时间下的临界间距;②增大水管内压、冲蚀时间、砂粒粒径,减少管道间距、管道壁厚均会导致燃气管道的失效概率增大,其中,管道间距对失效概率影响最为显著。研究结果可为失效场景定量风险评估以及水管与燃气管道并行敷设的间距设计提供参考。     

A multicentric retrospective study of serum/plasma urea and creatinine concentrations in dogs using univariate and multivariate decision rules to evaluate diagnostic efficiency

BACKGROUND: Urea and creatinine are the most frequently used indirect markers in plasma and serum of glomerular filtration rate in dogs. Both have been shown to lack sensitivity but their diagnostic efficiency for the diagnosis of kidney disease has been minimally investigated. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the influence of possible factors of variation on both analytes and to determine whether specific decision rules should be drawn up for subpopulations of dogs. METHODS: The results of urea and creatinine measurements, breed, sex, age, and health status (healthy, renal disease, or nonrenal disease) of 3822 dogs were collected from the archives of 5 veterinary clinics. Data were analyzed with univariate and multivariate decision rules with and without adjustment. RESULTS: There were significant effects and interactions of almost all of the sources of variation. Slight improvements in diagnostic efficiency were obtained by adjusting the decision rules to these sources of variations. Univariate decision rules gave approximately the same diagnostic efficiency for urea and creatinine concentrations, with sensitivity and specificity in the range of 70% and 90%, respectively, using the upper limit of the reference interval as the threshold value. Multivariate decision rules provided only minor improvements in diagnostic efficiency. CONCLUSION: Simultaneous measurement of both urea and creatinine is of limited diagnostic value over the analysis of a single variable. Creatinine is the preferred analyte as it is affected by fewer extrarenal factors of variation.     

数字长度面积仪的检定和精度分析

本文对数字长度—面积仪的特点和主要性能作了概括说明;引用马列科夫判据公式对该仪器的可信程度进行了检定;通过实验分析了仪器量测图形面积的精度,确定了量测精度与图形面积大小的回归关系,用回归方程对量测不同面积的精度进行预估,并用实际量测结果进行验证;确定出该仪器量测图形面积时的容许误差;最后指出了使用该仪器时应注意的事项及改进意见。     

弧形钢闸门空间框架体系可靠度分析

根据《水利水电工程钢闸门设计规范》、结构可靠度理论及弧形钢闸门空间框架的失效模式,提出其空间框架体系可靠度计算的串联模型及计算方法;在对钢闸门基本构件可靠度研究的基础上,应用该串联模型及计算方法,分析了弧形钢闸门空间框架体系的可靠度。结果表明：按现行规范设计的双支臂弧形钢闸门空间框架体系的可靠度指标最低为３．４（１６Ｍｎ钢）或３．２（３号钢）,比基本构件的可靠度指标小０．８５,与建筑《设计标准》的可靠度指标一致。     

我院英专口语测试系统的质量分析和完善对策

援引测试学的有关理论．分析我院英语专业英语口语测试系统存在的一些关于效度、信度和反拨效应的质量问题．并就此提出相应的完善目前英专口语测试系统的对策。     

新柴牌中大功率农机动力的开发

在N,D,K等3个系列产品平台上整合开发了18.4～58.8kW中大功率农机动力,目的是有一个相对较宽的产品链来配套中大功率拖拉机及相应功率要求的联合收割机。其产品开发的重点:一是功率谱完整,即通过缸径冲程的组合设计,力求在同一条生产线上制造不同功率的产品;二是同系列同缸心距扩排量带来的结构可靠性开发,主要是缸套-活塞环的可靠性开发及曲轴与轴承的可靠性开发,满足农用动力特殊工况和工作环境的可靠性开发;三是满足国内非道路移动机械二阶段排放要求的性能开发,特别是PM,NOx和燃油消耗之间的折中,重点是在经济成本的条件下对燃烧系统和燃油系统的优化开发。     

轴流泵模型多叶片安放角的数值计算

在同一轴流泵模型0°安放角数值计算结果的基础上,应用ANSYS CFX软件,选择标准k-ε湍流模型和可伸缩壁面函数,在不同的叶片安放角下,采用全六面体网格和经网格无关性分析的网格数,分别在定常和非定常条件下进行了多工况的数值模拟和外特性计算,并将计算结果与试验结果进行对比.在规范使用工具软件的条件下,分析了CFD数值模拟技术预估轴流泵性能的精度及其误差的特点.结果表明,非定常计算扬程值略高于试验值,而定常计算扬程值低于试验值,非定常计算的总体精度高于定常计算,且误差可控制在5%以内;定常和非定常预测的效率误差可控制在7%以内,且非定常计算的效率与试验效率存在一相对固定幅度的偏差,据此可用于修正同类模型效率的预测值.基于非定常计算的结果,进一步分析了叶轮和导叶圆柱面上流线分布、叶片截线压力分布和轴流泵过流部件各部分水力损失随叶轮叶片安放角和流量的变化规律,发现在小流量工况,靠近轮毂位置存在旋涡堵塞现象;在计算工况范围内,导叶段和出水段水力损失随流量的增大呈现先减小后增大的趋势.     

An ecosystem‐scale predictive model of coastal seagrass distribution

• 1. Maintaining ecological processes that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems requires planning and management of marine resources at an appropriate spatial scale.
• 2. The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBR) is the world's largest World Heritage Area (approximately 348 000 km²) and second largest marine protected area. It is difficult to inform the planning and management of marine ecosystems at that scale because of the high cost associated with collecting data. To address this and to inform the management of coastal (approximately 15 m below mean sea level) habitats at the scale of the GBR, this study determined the presence and distribution of seagrass by generating a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based habitat suitability model.
• 3. A Bayesian belief network was used to quantify the relationship (dependencies) between seagrass and eight environmental drivers: relative wave exposure, bathymetry, spatial extent of flood plumes, season, substrate, region, tidal range and sea surface temperature. The analysis showed at the scale of the entire coastal GBR that the main drivers of seagrass presence were tidal range and relative wave exposure. Outputs of the model include probabilistic GIS‐surfaces of seagrass habitat suitability in two seasons and at a planning unit of cell size 2 km×2 km.
• 4. The habitat suitability maps developed in this study extend along the entire GBR coast, and can inform the management of coastal seagrasses at an ecosystem scale. The predictive modelling approach addresses the problems associated with delineating habitats at the scale appropriate for the management of ecosystems and the cost of collecting field data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.