Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R₀) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R₀ was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.     

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparison of control strategies

Using the spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model InterCSF, several alternative pre-emptive slaughter strategies that could have been applied in the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–1998 were evaluated. Furthermore, effects of changes in some disease-spread and disease-control parameters were studied. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and contacts (animals, transport and persons). Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms (e.g. depopulation of infected farms, pre-emptive slaughter, movement control). The starting point for the evaluation of strategies was a simulated basic scenario, which mimicked the real epidemic. Strategies were compared using epidemiological as well as economic results. Economic results were generated by a separate model (EpiLoss) that calculated the direct losses and consequential losses for farmers and related industries. The comparison of the different alternatives to the basic scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF-epidemic. Pre-emptive slaughter seemed to be an effective strategy to reduce the size of an epidemic, if started at an early stage. Economically, pre-emptive slaughter was not as expensive as expected; the resulting smaller size of the epidemic, combined with less welfare slaughter, led to much lower overall losses. Furthermore, although large movement control areas seemed effective in reducing the size of the epidemic, the total losses were relatively high because of subsequent welfare slaughter. If infection probabilities could be reduced, for example by improved biosecurity, the resulting epidemics would be much smaller.     

A quantitative assessment of the validity of animal-health surveys using stochastic modelling

This paper presents a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the efficacy of regional or national surveys aimed at identifying infection in populations of animals. The process of evaluation involves specification or calculation of cluster-level test sensitivity and specificity, which are derived from two probability distributions of the number of individual-level positive tests expected from non-infected and infected clusters, respectively. Probability distributions for the number of positive clusters expected in a situation of freedom from infection and under various levels of cluster prevalence are specified and used to determine survey properties (the survey being considered a diagnostic system), and ROC curves are drawn. Likelihood ratios allow investigators to state the extent to which a survey result is more likely to be observed if the region or country is infected at a given prevalence than if it is free from infection. The result of a survey carried out to investigate the presence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in Switzerland is used to illustrate this approach. The model can be adapted to a wide range of survey designs.     

A survey of Newcastle disease in Swiss laying-hen flocks using serological testing and simulation modelling

Newcastle disease (ND) is a highly contagious viral disease of birds particularly domestic poultry. Switzerland is currently declared free from ND; since vaccination is prohibited, the detection of antibodies against ND virus (NDV) results in the destruction of the respective flock (stamping-out policy). However, in 1995 and 1996, antibody-positive flocks were detected and sporadic ND outbreaks even occurred in Switzerland. Therefore, a serosurvey was done to look for evidence of NDV infections in Swiss laying-hen flocks. The survey was designed to provide 95% confidence of detecting at least one seropositive flock if the flock prevalence were 1%. Thirty blood samples from each of 260 commercial laying-hen flocks were collected during 1996 in a central poultry slaughterhouse. Sera were screened for NDV antibodies with a commercial blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Samples with a questionable or positive test result were retested with the same ELISA. A stochastic computer model was applied to define a cut-off number of test-positive samples to help to differentiate between true- and false-positive flocks and to estimate the true flock prevalence of infection. Four flocks were identified as NDV-seropositive and the NDV true seroprevalence among commercial laying-hen flocks in Switzerland was most likely between 1.35 and 1.55%. This indicates that Swiss laying-hen and parental flocks with more than 150 animals have been in contact with strains of NDV that cause subclinical infection in chicken, because no clinical symptoms have been observed. In this context, computer simulation was a useful technique to interpret survey results.     

Classical swine fever in The Netherlands 1997-1998: a description of organisation and measures to eradicate the disease

The central and regional organisation of the campaign to eradicate the CSF epidemic in the Netherlands in 1997/1998 is described. The main instruments used in the campaign were based on stamping-out and movement restrictions specified by the European Union. Additional instruments were used for the first time, namely, pre-emptive culling of contact and neighbouring farms, compartmentalisation of transport, monthly serological screening in established surveillance areas and supervised repopulation of all farms in the former surveillance zone. Two other measures, the killing of very young piglets and a breeding ban were introduced to reduce production in established surveillance zones. Several factors complicated the eradication campaign, for instance, the late detection of the first infection; artificial insemination as a source of infection; the organisation of pig farming in the Netherlands, with its highly concentrated production and dependence on the transport of stock from one unit to another; insufficient rendering capacity; decreasing sensitivity of clinical inspection; and extremely high costs.     

甲壳动物保幼激素的研究

近年来，在甲壳动物大颚腺中发现了一种具有保幼激素活性的物质——法呢酸甲酯（MF），它是一昆虫保幼激素Ⅲ（JHⅢ）结构相似的一种倍半萜类化合物，对甲壳动物的生长、发育和繁殖有重要调控作用，而MF的分泌受到眼柄等因子的负调节作用。     

河南人均国内生产总值预测分析

运用GM（1，1）模型和经济周期理论，定量分析和定性分析相结合，对2001-2009年河南人均国内生产总值进行了预测分析，结果表明，在对区域经济的发展趋势进行预测时，在经济周期的不同发展阶段中样本数目的选择可能会对预测结果产生显著的影响，对样本数据进行适当处理，能使预测结果和现实相符。     

棉花幼苗侧根发生的化学诱导研究 Ⅲ.Ca~(2+)对棉花幼苗侧根发生和根系IAA含量的影响研究初报

清水或 DPC 200ppm 溶液浸种培养的棉花幼苗在移栽时用含 Ca~(2+)30ppm 的 CaCl_2溶液漫根2小时处理,栽后8天观察发现,两种浸种方式,Ca~(2+)均能促进棉苗侧根的发生,并提高根系 IAA 含量。但 Ca~(2+)处理 DPC 降低根对棉酚含量的效应无明显影响。上述试验结果显示出 Ca~(2+)与诱导棉苗侧根发生和调节根系 IAA 水平之间存在着某些内在的联系,这可能涉及到 Ca~(2+)·CaM系统(胞内第二信使系统)与植物激素效应之间的关系。