工程建设效果后评价博弈论集对分析模型的建立与应用

针对工程建设效果后评价中具有很多确定性和不确定性因素,且评价因子与等级标准间存在着复杂的非线性关系这一大难题,该文将集对分析理论和博弈论相结合,提出基于博弈论的集对分析模型。该模型运用博弈论确定指标权重,然后将指标实际值和等级标准值构成一个集对,根据集对分析方法计算其综合联系度,据此判断评价对象的等级及其在等级间的转化趋势。之后引入集对的同势、反势、均势分析系统内部各子系统之间的协调程度进而解释转化趋势的内在原因。最后将模型运用于湖南省农村饮水安全工程建设效果后评价中,并与突变评价法相比较。结果显示:湖南省14个市(州)中有3个地区(衡阳、郴州、永州)农村饮水安全级别为"优",3个地区(常德、益阳、娄底)农村饮水安全级别为"一般",其他地区农村饮水安全均"良好";长沙和怀化农村饮水安全系统协调性很强,工程可持续发展水平高;娄底农村饮水安全系统协调性一般,工程可持续发展水平不高;株洲农村饮水安全系统极不协调,工程可持续发展状况不容乐观;衡阳和郴州农村饮水安全系统基本不协调,工程可持续发展状况较差;其他市农村饮水安全系统基本协调,工程后续效益较为稳定。方法对比表明该文方法的研究结果可靠度更高,反映出的信息更全面、合理。该研究可为类似或后续工程管理提供决策参考。     

华北地区水安全问题的研究与展望

This paper addresses the emergence of water security problems in North China with the aim of highlighting key water resources management and water security issues for the long-term development of North China. Three key problems related to water resources and security issues in North China in the 21st century are addressed, namely 1) the water cycle under environmental change, 2) agricultural water saving, and 3) water security. Development of international research related to these issues is also reviewed. The research plan developed recently by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is discussed and suggestions on research and development of water resources science in North China are presented. Thanks to focus on experimental catchments and dedicated research stations, a detailed knowledge of the water cycle on North China farmland has been compiled. A range of techniques that include isotope tracers has been used to acquire hydrologic data. Much research has been devoted to developing distributed hydrological models at different scales. In the well irrigation district, five different water saving irrigation regimes have been investigated, and these regimes have had widespread application, and reduced water use 60-150 mm while they increased water use efficiency (WUE) by 20%-30%. Furthermore, preventing water pollution is the most essential step to ensure North China's water security.     

PCR Marker-based Analysis of Wild and Cultivated Yams (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Dioscorea</Emphasis> spp.) in Nigeria: Genetic Relationships and Implications for <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex situ</Emphasis> Conservation

Reliable characterization of the variation among wild and cultivated yams in Nigeria is essential for improved management and efficient utilization of yam genetic resources. RAPD and double stringency PCR (DS-PCR) analyses were used to investigate genetic relationships and the extent of redundancy among 30 accessions of two cultivated, and 35 accessions of four wild yam species collected from Nigeria. Twenty-five selected random decamer and two microsatellite primers were used individually and in combination to generate DNA profiles for each accession of the six Dioscorea species. The number of amplified fragments varied from 7 to 18 fragments per primer/primer combination. Different levels of intraspecific genetic diversity were found, with Dioscorea rotundata Poir. being the most variable. Based on identical profiles for the RAPD and DS-PCR primers, 12 duplication groups consisting of a total number of 37 accessions were observed in the present study. An UPGMA analysis grouped the majority of plants according to the species. Cultivated yams belonging to the D. cayenensis–rotundata species complex, which were classified into seven morphotypes/varietal groups, could be clearly separated into two major groups corresponding to D. rotundata Poir. and D. cayenensis Lam. D. cayenensis cultivars exhibited a low level of intraspecific variation and were genetically close to the wild species Dioscorea burkilliana J. Miège. D. rotundata cultivars classified into six varietal groups showed a high degree of DNA polymorphism and were separated into two major groups that appeared most closely related to Dioscorea praehensilis Benth. and Dioscorea liebrechtsiana de Wild. We propose, based on these results, that cultivars classified into D. cayenensis should be considered as a taxon separate from D. rotundata. The implications of intraspecific variability for the ex situ conservation of wild and cultivated yam germplasm in Nigeria are discussed.     

Genetic and economic aspects of marker-assisted reduction of redundancy from a wild potato germplasm collection

The wild potato germplasm collection of the series Acaulia, maintained at the Centre for Genetic Resources, The Netherlands, consists of 314 accessions. In previous investigations, 15 potential duplication groups with a total of 36 accessions were identified based on AFLP analysis of a limited sample per accession. In the present study, the potential redundancies, plus one additional accession, were studied with increased sample sizes to examine intra- and inter-accession variation more accurately, with the aim to reduce the size of the collection. No variation was observed within two potential duplication groups, whereas only limited differentiation among accessions was detected within seven groups, resulting in a total of 15 redundant accessions (nearly 5% of the collection). A cluster analysis of all the accessions of the collection showed that these nine groups each had a distinct identity. It was decided to maintain the accessions of the remaining six groups as separate entries based on the large differentiation observed among accessions and the absence of a clear identity. An analysis of molecular variance in the set of 37 accessions showed that 91% of the observed variation could be found among accessions. This variance component appeared unaffected when the set was analysed without the 15 redundant accessions. The invested costs to identify redundancies in the series Acaulia by AFLP analysis are estimated at k 57.3, whereas the savings achieved by reduction of the collection are estimated at k 21.0 per generation. However, a cost-benefit analysis should not only focus on the short-term return of investments, but should also consider the value of newly obtained data and information. These include taxonomic information about accessions, optimised sampling strategies, optimised regeneration procedures, additional data for core collection formation and more efficient utilisation of germplasm.     

Nutrition Management and Farm’s Age Affect Saffron Daughter Corms Behavior,Nutrients Uptake and Economic Water and Fertilizer Use Efficiency: A Large Scale On-farm Experiment in Torbat Heydarieh,Iran

ABSTRACT

Evaluation of the relationships between nutritional patterns and farms’ age with the behavior of saffron (Crocus sativus L.) daughter corms based on farmers’ management (on-farm) can be crucial in improving saffron sustainable yield. Furthermore, in commercial saffron production, especially in small farms, the purchased water and fertilizers are the basis of sustainable saffron profitability, hence, recognizing the relationships between economic water use efficiency (EWUE) and economic fertilizer use efficiency (EFUE) can be important. An on-farm experiment was conducted on a large scale based on farmers’ management in Torbat Heydarieh, Iran. The farms’ age (1–6 years old) and fertilizers management approaches (organic, mineral and integrated) were considered as the first and second factors, respectively. Large-sized daughter corms number and weight and corms N and P content increased with increasing farms’ age from 1 to 4 years old. However, these parameters decreased with increasing farms’ age from 4 to 6 years old. Irrespective of saffron farms’ age, the minimum large-sized daughter corms number and weight were observed when mineral fertilizer management was practiced. By contrast, the maximum values were related to integrated fertilizer management. In each type of fertilizer management, EWUE and EFUE (based on large-sized daughter corms monetary value) increased with increasing farms age from 1 to 4 years. However, increase in farms age from 4 to 6 years caused a significant reduction in mentioned indices. Overall, if high-quality saffron corm production is needed, corms should be harvested in the fourth year to gain the maximum yield and profit.     

水产种质资源地理信息系统设计与实观

水产种质资源地理信息系统是为了实现水产种质资源数据共享而开发的一个C/S模式共享平台。采用VB＋MapX的二次开发方式，实现了空间数据与属性数据互相查询、数据管理以及报表输出等功能，另外还绘制了水产物种地理的分布图和水系分布图。     

Sampling variation in genetic resources of seed crops: a review

Summary The first explorations for the collection of genetic resources of crop plants took place in areas designated as centers of origin. Later, important characters were found to be present in areas other than those indicated by Vavilov. Hence collection missions were extended to cover other areas in addition to the centers of diversity with different ecogeography and agromorphological features. Collecting activities were aimed not only at providing germplasm for immediate use in breeding but also at conserving genetic variation for future contingencies. The analysis of the collected material has revealed the complex nature, amount and distribution of genetic variation present in natural populations as well as in landraces, old varieties and primitive forms. The study of variation for characters from different regions indicated that it is possible to select certain characters for detecting variability in the populations and establishing the minimum number of genotypes to be sampled. A minimum number of 20–130 plants per sample, depending on the crop, is recommended in order to capture 95% of the total variation in the field. However, it has been emphasized that the number of different populations sampled rather than the sample size per population determines the overall efficiency of a collection. The findings reported allow better utilization of the collected material and formulation of optimal and cost-effective sampling strategies for the future.     

澳大利亚海洋渔业工程发展概况与中澳海洋渔业合作前景分析

海洋渔业经济是海洋经济中重要的组成部分,而海洋渔业工程则是未来海洋渔业经济中极具潜力且可持续发展性较强的领域。中国、澳大利亚两国同为海洋资源、海洋渔业资源大国,未来如何更好利用本国丰富的海洋资源,进一步发展海洋渔业经济是两国面临的共同课题。该研究通过对澳大利亚海洋渔业工程的发展现状及特点进行分析,采用文献档案整理、大数据统计、具体案例分析等方法,梳理澳大利亚海洋渔业工程的优劣势,分析中澳海洋渔业经济合作的基础、优势、困难与挑战,并展望中、澳两国在海洋渔业领域尤其是水产养殖业开展深度合作、实现互利共赢的前景。得出结论,中国与澳大利亚展开海洋渔业经济合作,打通蓝色经济走廊是对中国"一带一路"倡议的重要组成部分,既符合两国的根本利益,互为各自经济的有益补充,又可以一定程度上化解澳大利亚对中国"一带一路"倡议的误解。     

模糊物元模型在新疆农业水资源可持续利用评价中的应用

在模糊物元分析的基础上,结合欧氏贴近度的概念,提出了基于欧氏贴近度的模糊物元分析方法。在对区域水资源可持续利用进行综合评价时,把各地区各开发利用阶段作为物元的事物,以它们的各项评价指标及其相应的模糊量值构造复合模糊物元,通过计算与标准模糊物元之间的欧氏贴近度,并采用层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,实现对各地区水资源可持续利用的综合评价与排序。该模型被应用到新疆农业水资源可持续综合评价中,取得了较好的效果,对新疆水资源的开发具有重要的指导意义。     

四川省甘孜州道孚县温泉资源调查及旅游开发探讨

道孚县位于青藏高原东缘、松潘-甘孜褶皱带上,境内有鲜水河大断裂和玉科大断裂两大断裂带通过,形成了多处富含微量元素的偏硅酸、偏硼酸温泉。但是,该县地处西部偏远山区,经济贫困,温泉资源亟待开发。从温泉形成的地质背景入手,讨论了道孚县温泉资源的现状、评价及分类,以及针对道孚县实际情况就如何合理开发、科学保护、促进地方经济发展提出了建设性意见。