Remedies for pseudoreplication

Pseudoreplication is the failure of a statistical analysis to properly incorporate the true structure of randomness present in the data. It has been well documented and studied in the ecological literature but has received little attention in the fisheries literature. Avoiding pseudoreplication in analyses of fisheries data can be difficult due to the complexity of the statistical procedures required. However, recent developments in statistical methodology are decreasing the extent to which pseudoreplication has to be tolerated. Seven examples are given here, beginning with simple design-based remedies and progressing to more challenging examples including the model-based remedies of mixed-effects modelling, generalized linear mixed models, state-space models, and geostatistics.     

A model ensemble approach to determine the humus building efficiency of organic amendments in incubation experiments

Organic amendments are important to sustain soil organic matter (SOM) and soil functions in agricultural soils. Information about the contribution of organic amendments to SOM can be derived from incubation experiments. In this study, data from 72 incubated organic amendments including plant residues, digestates and manure were analysed. The incubation data was compiled from three experimental setups with varying incubation times, soils and incubation temperatures, in which CO₂ release was measured continuously. The analysis of the incubation data was performed with an approach relying on conceptual parts of C-TOOL, CCB, Century, ICBM, RothC and Yasso which are all well-approved first-order carbon models that differ in structure and abstraction level. All models are an approximation of reality, whereby each model differs in understanding of the processes involved in soil carbon dynamics. To accumulate the advantages from each model a model ensemble was performed for each substrate. With the ability of each carbon model to compute the distribution of carbon into specific SOM pools a new approach for evaluating organic amendments in terms of humus building efficiency is presented that, depends on the weighted model fit of each ensemble member. Depending on the organic substrate added to the soil, the time course of CO₂ release in the incubation studies was predicted with different accuracy by the individual model concepts. Averaging the output of the individual models leads to more robust prediction of SOM dynamics. The E_HUM value is easy to interpret and the results are in accordance with the literature.     

南方丘陵区油茶气孔导度模型修正

为探求南方丘陵地区油茶叶片气孔导度最优响应模型,该研究于2020年和2021年对油茶叶片的气孔导度、净光合速率、CO2浓度等参数进行观测,运用9种不同组合的Jarvis模型以及2种不同CO2浓度（叶片CO2浓度和胞间CO2浓度）计算的Ball-Woodrow-Berry（BWB）模型和Ball-Berry-Leuning（BBL）模型对油茶叶片气孔导度进行模拟,并引入油茶叶片叶气温差、气孔内外CO2浓度差对Jarvis模型和BBL模型进行修正和比较。结果表明：去除土壤水分函数提高了Jarvis模型的模拟效果,说明在南方丘陵区利用Jarvis模型时可以忽略土壤水分这一因子的影响。Jarvis-8模型以及用叶片CO2浓度计算出的BWB和BBL模型对油茶气孔导度模拟效果较好。在三种经典模型中,BBL模型的相关系数最大（R2=0.76）,绝对值平均误差最小（0.015）,说明其对油茶气孔导度模拟的效果较好。在引入两种参数后,叶气温差对Jarvis-8模型和BBL模型的模拟效果有所提高,但不显著;气孔内外CO2浓度差对Jarvis-8模型无明显改变,但显著提高了BBL模型的精度,引入气孔内外CO2浓度差后的BBL-C模型相关系数从BBL模型的0.76提高到了0.95,模型斜率非常接近于1（1.004）,模拟结果贴近于实测的气孔导度值,很好地模拟了2020年（R2=0.92）和2021年（R2=0.95）油茶生长关键期的叶片气孔导度值以及不同场景下的油茶气孔导度日变化值。因此推荐引入气孔内外CO2浓度差的 BBL模型作为南方丘陵区油茶叶片气孔导度响应模型。研究结果可为南方丘陵区油茶气孔导度模型选取提供参考依据。     

干燥致密土壤在沙粒流冲击下的磨蚀规律

在土壤风蚀过程中,跃移颗粒对表土的冲击磨蚀是公认的一种重要起尘机制。磨蚀体现了跃移沙与土壤相互作用,受沙粒跃移运动参数和土壤力学性质共同控制。然而,现有风蚀模型尚未充分考虑土壤力学性质的地位与作用,缺少磨蚀速率计算公式,亟需从固体力学角度探讨土壤磨蚀规律。该研究借鉴岩石磨蚀模型,针对含水率小于1.5%、体密度大于1.60×103 kg/m3的干燥致密土壤,提出了代表单位时间内的碰撞次数、土壤抗压强度和杨氏模量、入射沙粒动能和密度等综合效应的磨蚀变量;通过标准压缩试验测得黏土、砂土、壤土、砂质黏土、壤质黏土共5种人工均质土壤的抗压强度和杨氏模量的范围分别为0.823～4.092 MPa和0.043～0.149 GPa;利用自行设计的冲击磨蚀试验得到了干燥致密土壤在沙漠沙颗粒流冲击作用下的磨蚀规律,即磨蚀速率是磨蚀变量的线性函数,其斜率与截距分别为3.27×104和-0.027 kg/s。研究结果有助于恰当描述风蚀模型中的土壤力学性质、准确计算风蚀速率,进而服务于农田防护和水土保持工程,并为中国西北干旱区天然地貌和人工建筑风蚀现象的研究提供理论依据与数据支撑。     

基于CLUE-S模型县域土地利用情景模拟与碳排放效应分析

土地利用与变化产生的碳排放是国家温室气体排放清单核算中的重要组成部分。该研究以辽宁省沈阳市法库县为研究区域,基于2013年土地利用现状数据,运用CLUE-S模型对法库县2019年土地利用变化格局进行模拟与验证。在此基础上,通过设置基线情景、农业发展、建设发展、生态保护、土地利用结构优化5种模拟情景预测2030年法库县土地利用分布空间格局及各情景下土地利用碳收支状况。结果表明：1）CLUE-S模型对法库县土地利用格局变化具有良好的模拟能力,Kappa系数为0.989 6,模拟总体精度达到99.14%;2）在5种模拟情景中,土地利用结构优化情景下2030年法库县土地资源利用效果最优,是法库县中长期发展阶段较为适宜的土地利用模式;3）法库县2013-2019年碳排放量增长5.53%。5种模拟情景同2019年相比,除生态保护和农业发展情景外,其余模拟情景下法库县碳排放量均呈现增长趋势,其中土地利用结构优化情景增幅最小,为2.29%。研究结果可为法库县土地利用优化布局、国土空间规划编制及碳减排相关政策制订提供参考依据和决策支持,研究方法也可为其他区域土地利用格局预测及碳收支变化提供借鉴。     

改进YOLOv5测量田间小麦单位面积穗数

单位面积穗数是决定小麦产量的主要因素之一。针对人工清点小麦穗数的方法容易受主观因素影响、效率低和图像处理方法鲜有进行系统部署等问题,提出一种注意力模块（Convolutional Block Attention Module,CBAM）与YOLOv5相结合的CBAM-YOLOv5网络结构,通过对特征图进行自适应特征细化,实现更准确的单位面积穗数测量。该研究以本地采集小麦图像数据和网络公开小麦图像数据为数据集,设置输入图像分辨率为1 280,得到CBAM-YOLOv5模型,可以达到0.904的F1分数和0.902的平均精度,测试集计数的平均相对误差为2.56%,平均每幅图像耗时0.045 s,综合对比,CBAM-YOLOv5模型具有显著优势。模型放置于服务器,结合手机端软件和辅助装置,形成单位面积穗数测量系统,实现育种小区麦穗图像实时采集、处理和计数,计数的平均相对误差为2.80%,抗环境干扰性强。该研究方法与装置可以实现田间小麦单位面积穗数的实时在线检测,降低主观误差,具有较高的准确率及较强的鲁棒性,为小麦单位面积穗数快速、准确估测提供一种新的技术和装备支撑。     

Rainfall erosivity and erosivity density through rainfall synthetic series for São Paulo State,Brazil: Assessment,regionalization and modeling

Rainfall is the main cause of erosion of Brazilian soils, which makes assessing the rainfall erosivity factor (RE) and the erosivity density (ED) fundamental for soil and water conservation. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: i) to estimate the RE and ED for São Paulo State, Brazil, using synthetic series of pluviographic data; ii) to define homogeneous regions regarding rainfall erosivity; and iii) to generate regression models for rainfall erosivity estimates in each of the homogeneous regions. Synthetic series of pluviographic data were initially obtained on a sub-daily scale from the daily rainfall records of 696 rainfall gauges. The RE values were then estimated from the synthetic rainfall data, and ED was calculated from the relationship between erosivity and rainfall amounts. Monthly and annual maps for RE and ED were obtained. Hierarchical clustering analysis was used to define homogeneous regions in terms of rainfall erosivity, and regionalized regression models for estimating RE were generated. The results demonstrate high spatial variability of RE in São Paulo, where the highest annual values were observed in the coastal region. December to March concentrate approximately 60% of the intra-annual erosivity. The highest values of annual ED were observed in regions with intense agricultural activity. The definition of five homogeneous regions concerning the rainfall erosive potential evidenced distinct seasonal patterns of the spatial distribution of erosivity. Finally, the high predictive accuracy of the regionalized models obtained characterizes them as essential tools for reliable estimates of rainfall erosivity, and contribute to better soil conservation planning.     

中卫市蛋鸡产业可持续发展对策

通过调查,分析了近年来中卫市蛋鸡产业发展存在的问题,提出了科学规划、生态养殖、循序改造养殖老区等蛋鸡产业发展的对策。     

Questioning the contemporary forest planning paradigm: making use of local knowledge

The forest planning system of large Swedish forest owners follows a three step procedure: long-term, medium-term, and short-term planning. The system is sequential and hierarchical in the sense that longer-term plans form the framework for shorter-term plans, and that top-level management prepares the long range plans and the lower management levels develop plans with successively shorter horizons. Studies indicate that this approach does not fully use existing knowledge within the organization. Problems associated with the top-down approach are also recognized in the general literature on organization and management. A proposal for a bottom-up approach is developed that aim at the use of local level knowledge to enhance accuracy and applicability of the forest plans. After top-level management has issued some fundamental planning directives, medium-term planning is conducted by the districts. Then the district plans are consolidated at the top-level for coordination and revision. A simulated planning process provides an illustration of the approach. The Heureka system is used here to optimize harvests and road costs with a mixed integer programming model of the problem, spanning 10 years with three seasons per year. The importance of detailed local knowledge to the outcome of planning is indicated, and needs for continued decision support systems development is discussed.     

基于条件植被温度指数的冬小麦产量预测

条件植被温度指数(VTCI)综合了地表主要参数——植被指数(NDVI)和地表温度(LST),能够较为准确地对干旱进行监测,可为抗旱救灾、遥感作物估产等提供科学依据。在改进层次分析法的加权VTCI与冬小麦产量的相关性研究成果和VTCI的季节性ARIMA模型干旱预测研究成果基础上,对关中平原的冬小麦产量进行向前1旬、2旬和3旬的预测研究。研究结果表明,产量预测结果与产量监测结果吻合较好,预测精度随着预测步长的增大而降低,关中平原4个地级市平均产量预测结果的最大相对误差为3.27%,说明用该方法可以进行向前3旬的产量预测。