Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned. The US Government's and the Canadian Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license is acknowledged     

Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

Predicting non‐native fish dispersal under conditions of climate change: case study in England of dispersal and establishment of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in a floodplain pond

Predictions of future climate change include shifts in patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water run‐off, resulting in increased periods of drought as well as variability and intensity of rainfall events. In the United Kingdom, the non‐native North American sunfish, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.), is expected to benefit from these changes. We examine how hydrological variability induced by predicted changes in climate will affect the dispersal and spread of pumpkinseed in England by: (i) determining the relationship between discharge regime and pumpkinseed propagule pressure; (ii) examining a newly‐established pumpkinseed population following a flood event in 2007; and (iii) comparing the growth and life‐history traits of this new population with fish collected from the source population to demonstrate how the pumpkinseed's life‐history plasticity contributes to its success as a coloniser. Using Bayesian modelling, we determined that the number of pumpkinseed escapees is likely to increase with increasing discharge. The newly‐established pumpkinseed population showed fast juvenile growth, early age at maturity and small size at maturity. These traits differed significantly from the source population, specifically total length (TL) means at ages 1 and 2 were significantly greater in the new population, whereas TL at age 4 was significantly greater in the source population, and a significantly higher proportion of mature females were found at smaller size classes in the newly established pumpkinseed population. This study demonstrates the potential link between hydrological variability (current and future) and the dispersal of non‐native pumpkinseed, leading to the establishment of new populations.     

The fallacy of the missing middle: physics →…→ fisheries

In this paper I discuss some of the shortcomings of today's marine science in response to a recently published paper by Ann Gargett (1997). Three problem areas have been identified in the field linking climate forcing and fish production: First, the yet-to-be established observational proof for a relationship between the two; Second, the strongly neglected biology of organisms at evolutionary and ecological time scales; and thrird, the disregard for spatial and temporal scales in the discussion of mechanisms and supporting data.     

Effects of hysteresis on redistribution of soil moisture and deep percolation at continuous and pulse drip irrigation

The infiltration and redistribution of soil moisture under surface drip irrigation considering hysteresis were investigated in two soils (loamy sand and silt loam) of different texture. The effect of continuous versus intermittent application of 1, 2 and 4 l/h to the soils was evaluated in terms of wetting front advance patterns and deep percolation under the root zone. For this purpose, a cylindrical flow model incorporating hysteresis in the soil water retention characteristic curve, evaporation from the soil surface, and water extraction by roots was used. The results show that, compared with continuous irrigation, pulse irrigation slightly reduces the water losses under the root zone in both cases (with and without hysteresis). Also, at the total simulation time, in both types of irrigation, hysteresis reduces significantly the water losses under the root zone. Finally, the effect of hysteresis was found to be greater at higher discharge rate (4 l/h) and consequently at higher water content at the soil surface.     

Ecological and eco‐social models for the introduction of the abalone Haliotis discus hannai into benthic systems of north‐central Chile: sustainability assessment

• 1. Loop models of ecological and socio‐economic systems were developed to analyse and predict the impact of a possible accidental introduction (escapes) of the abalone Haliotis discus hannai into a benthic community of north‐central Chile.
• 2. Although the ‘new’ ecological system resulting from a successful invasion of abalone would be locally stable, the establishment of a self‐enhanced dynamic of recruits would transform this into an unstable system.
• 3. The harvest of the kelp, Lessonia trabeculata and other macroalgae is not recommended because this destabilizes the system. The harvest of abalone adults is only sustainable if they do not exert a negative effect upon other native invertebrates.
• 4. The eco‐social model showed three important results: (1) if the variables ‘Price’ and ‘Farming’ are in expansion and stationary dynamics, then the models were found unstable; (2) a self‐enhanced dynamic of abalone recruits tends toward instability; and (3) the harvest of the kelp L. trabeculata and other macroalgae would be non‐sustainable.
• 5. Based on our results, the sustainable development of extensive farming of H. discus hannai in the sea would be not reached. If it is done, an intensive monitoring of the community after introduction into the system is strongly recommended. Likewise, the farming of macroalgal species (source of food for abalone) should be promoted in order to avoid harvesting of macroalgae from natural systems.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling agroforestry systems of cacao (Theobroma cacao) with laurel (Cordia alliodora) and poro (Erythrina poeppigiana) in Costa Rica III. Cycles of organic matter and nutrients

Models for cycles for organic matter and nutrients element (N, P, K, Ca and Mg) are presented for the agroforestry systems of cacao (Theobroma cacao) withCordia alliodora orErythrina poeppigiana in Turrialba, Costa Rica. For the models, system reserves (soil, humus, vegetation divided into leaves, branches, stems, fine roots, fruits) and transference between compartments (production and decomposition of litter residues) inputs (fertilizer, rainfall) and outputs (harvests) of the system are considered. The implications of the models are discussed in detail. Aspects of net primary production in the systems studied are considered. N fixation is calculated on the basis of balances. Analysis of soil water showed high variations that coincided with rainfall patterns and pruning of theE. poeppigiana. For part I see Vol. 4, No. 3, 1986 For part II see this issue Agroforestry Project, CATIE/GTZ (Tropical Agricultural Research and Training Center/Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit), Turrialba, Costa Rica     

A framework for a modular modelling approach for agroforestry

There are a number of problems with conventional methods for implementing models of agroforestry systems, including the difficulties of building, modifying and understanding them. One way of addressing these problems is to adopt a modular modelling approach, in which a model is constructed by linking a number of submodels, which in turn may consist of smaller computational units.This paper presents a basic framework for the design of a modular modelling approach suitable for agroforestry modelling. This approach is based on a close correspondence between the notion of module in modelling and of subroutine in a programming implementation of a model, so that selecting and linking modules is analogous to choosing and issuing calls to subroutines. This approach has the potential for enabling the complex modelling structures that are required for agroforestry modelling, such as spatial aspects and the representation of individual trees, to be handled in a consistent and uniform manner.The approach requires that subroutines should be held as symbolically-represented structures, rather than just source code in a programming language, so that they can be referenced as discrete units, and internally modified by symbol-processing operations. It is shown that the logic-programming language Prolog is well-suited to the task of representing subroutines in template form, ready to be fleshed out and combined into a single program in response to the selections made by a user. Prolog's suitability for the development of a user-friendly model design interface is also discussed, enabling models to be constructed simply by selecting options from a menu of design choices.     

Modelling agroforestry systems of cacao (Theobroma cacao) with laurel (Cordia alliodora) and poro (Erythrina poeppigiana) in Costa Rica III. Cycles of organic matter and nutrients

Models for cycles for organic matter and nutrients element (N, P, K, Ca and Mg) are presented for the agroforestry systems of cacao (Theobroma cacao) withCordia alliodora orErythrina poeppigiana in Turrialba, Costa Rica.For the models, system reserves (soil, humus, vegetation divided into leaves, branches, stems, fine roots, fruits) and transference between compartments (production and decomposition of litter residues) inputs (fertilizer, rainfall) and outputs (harvests) of the system are considered.The implications of the models are discussed in detail.Aspects of net primary production in the systems studied are considered.N fixation is calculated on the basis of balances. Analysis of soil water showed high variations that coincided with rainfall patterns and pruning of theE. poeppigiana.For part I see Vol. 4, No. 3, 1986 For part II see this issueAgroforestry Project, CATIE/GTZ (Tropical Agricultural Research and Training Center/Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit), Turrialba, Costa Rica     

The Role of Mangroves in Retaining Penaeid Prawn Larvae in Klang Strait,Malaysia

The mangrove-fringed Klang Strait, Malaysia, retains approximately 65 billion penaeid prawn larvae annually prior to their settlement in coastal nursery grounds. This phenomenon appears to be due principally to tidal currents and lateral trapping in mangrove-fringed channels, the wind playing an insignificant role.