Risk factors for metritis in Michigan dairy cattle using herd- and cow-based modelling approaches

A prospective study, using the Michigan portion of the National Animal Health Monitoring System, was conducted to determine disease and management factors that affect the incidence of metritis in Michigan dairy herds. A stratified random sample representing 1% of all Michigan dairy herds was observed. Data related to herd, feeding, and reproduction management, disease and environmental risk factors, and cow-based disease and reproductive data were collected monthly for a 12 month period. Cows with complete management records that were observed for at least 3 months postpartum were included in the study (85 herds, 5278 cows). A multivariate linear regression model was developed for lactational incidence of metritis by herd, and a multivariate random-effects logistic model was developed for the occurrence of metritis by cows. Significant factors associated with increased occurrence of metritis included larger herds, problem calvings, overconditioning, underconditioning, and more active reproductive management. Factors associated with reductions in metritis involved good nutritional management, and working relationships with veterinarians for disease management. Implications for the significance of these factors are discussed, with emphasis on differences in interpretation and use of results from herd and cow-based analyses.     

Evaluation of bovine viral diarrhea virus control using a mathematical model of infection dynamics

A mathematical model for infection with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) was created comprising a series of coupled differential equations. The model architecture is a development of the traditional model framework using susceptible, infectious and removed animals (the SIR model). The model predicts 1.2% persistent infection (within the range of field estimates) and is fairly insensitive to alterations of structure or parameter values. This model allows us to draw important conclusions regarding the control of BVD, particularly with respect to the importance of persistently infected (PI) animals in maintaining BVD as an endemic entity in the herd. Herds without PI animals are likely to experience episodic reproductive losses at intervals of two to three years, unlike herds with PI animals which will not see such marked episodic manifestations of infection. Instead, these herds will experience an initial peak of disease which will settle to low-level chronic reproductive losses. The model indicates that vaccine coverage for herd immunity (to avoid episodic manifestations of disease) need be only 57% without PI animals, although 97% coverage is required when PI animals are present. Analysis of model behavior suggests, a program of detection and removal of PI animals may enhance the effectiveness of a vaccine program provided these animals are in the herd for 10 days or less. The best results would be seen with PI animals in the herd for 5 or fewer days.     

Estimating relative risk of disease from outputs of logistic regression when the disease is not rare

Many epidemiologic studies in the veterinary field aim to quantify the relationships between risk factors and the occurrence of diseases. The strength of the association between a factor and a disease can be measured by (i) a relative risk (RR), or (ii) an odds ratio (OR) which is widely used because it is directly derived from the estimates of logistic regression. RR directly provides the relative increase in the probability of disease occurrence in case of exposure. OR is often interpretated as a multiplicative factor of the risk of disease occurrence when exposed, although it is not a good approximation of RR when the disease is not rare. The objective of this paper is to propose a method to estimate RR of disease from adjusted odds ratios derived from logistic regression when the disease is not rare.The method of estimation is developed for three different cases: (i) the factor and the outcome are dichotomous; (ii) the factor has more than two classes, and the outcome is dichotomous; and (iii) the factor and the outcome both have more than two classes. In all cases, the principles of estimation are the same: in a subpopulation including individuals diseased at level j (D_j) and not diseased (D₀), when exposed to level i (F_i) or not exposed to the factor (F₀), can be calculated with adjusted , and the frequencies of individuals exposed to level i (n_i&;j), of those not exposed (n_0&;j) and of those diseased (n_i&;j) among the individuals exposed to level i and not exposed. is the positive solution of the formula:

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Economic evaluation of current and alternative dual-purpose cattle systems for smallholder farms in the central Peruvian highlands

In four communities in the Peruvian Andes, 56 farmers were interviewed every three months over a period of one year. Information linked to milk and cattle production such as activities, inputs (labour, means of production, capital) and outputs (milk, cheese, animals) were recorded using a closed-ended questionnaire. The communities were divided into two groups with low (LC) and high (HC) level of dependence on income from milk and animal sales. The survey results showed that cattle production on the LC farms was based on less land and a smaller herd (3.32 ha/farm, 1.06 lactating cows) than on HC farms (10.28 ha/farm, 4.19 lactating cows). The data from the survey and the results of the nutritional analyses of 74 feed samples were introduced into a model that applied linear programming techniques in order to estimate the farm household income under the current production systems and evaluate the economic impact of improved forage varieties for hay production. Furthermore, the economic viability of other changes in fodder and herd management was tested. Both groups were characterised by a dual-purpose system generating a gross income from the sale of both, milk and live animals in the amount of -21 (LC) and +1057 US$/farm and year (HC). Due to higher production costs for forages and better access to markets, LC communities were characterised by an integrated crop–livestock system whereas in the HC group income was mainly based on livestock. Introduction of improved and fertilized barley for hay production, was estimated to increase the annual farm income to 127 and 1257 US$ for LC and HC, respectively. This increase was accompanied by an increment of the animal number. Maintaining the animal number but increasing the milk production/cow by feeding additional forage was a less profitable option generating 50 and 1221 US$ of income per farm and year for LC and HC, respectively. The production of hay was limited by high costs (external labour) in LC communities and the restricted availability of family labour in the HC group. A scenario based on the use of improved cow genotypes led to the highest estimated annual farm income for HC communities (1280 US$) but was less favourable for LC. The modelling results showed that the best development strategy depends on various factors such as production costs, access to the markets and to irrigation and availability of different feed resources.     

An integrated web system to support veterinary activities in Italy for the management of information in epidemic emergencies

The management of public health emergencies is improved by quick, exhaustive and standardized flow of data on disease outbreaks, by using specific tools for data collection, registration and analysis. In this context, the National Information System for the Notification of Outbreaks of Animal Diseases (SIMAN) has been developed in Italy to collect and share data on the notifications of outbreaks of animal diseases. SIMAN is connected through web services to the national database of animals and holdings (BDN) and has been integrated with tools for the management of epidemic emergencies. The website has been updated with a section dedicated to the contingency planning in case of epidemic emergency. EpiTrace is one such useful tool also integrated in the BDN and based on the Social Network Analysis (SNA) and on network epidemiological models. This tool gives the possibility of assessing the risk associated to holdings and animals on the basis of their trade, in order to support the veterinary services in tracing back and forward the animals in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases.     

A model of the relationship between the epidemiology of Johne's disease and the environment in suckler-beef herds

A non-predictive, dynamic and stochastic herd-level simulation model of an outbreak of Johne's in a suckler-beef herd is reported. Importantly, the model incorporates, with a simple method, the environment as the primary source of infection, reflecting the consensual understanding of the disease. The model also takes into account the density of the infectious agent in the environment. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the model is highly and equally sensitive to certain parameters (probability of infection in the presence of one unit of bacterial density, infectious area and bacterial shedding rate). Mathematical reasons for this similarity in sensitivity are presented. Compared to many other diseases, data for Johne's are scarce. Therefore models of Johne's outbreaks including this one cannot be predictive or easily validated. The qualitative results: (a) demonstrate the modelled effect of inclusion of infection via the environment; (b) suggest management factors that could be tested by experimentation or observation. Estimates for the rate of transmission, arising from the model output, are similar to published empirical estimates. The results of future empirical research should aid scientific understanding of the disease, help validate this model and might bring economic benefits through improved management.     

Risk factors associated with Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection in California horses

A case-control study was designed using equine medical records from the UC Davis Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital (VMTH) and data derived through a mailed survey. The objective was to evaluate the associations between horse demographics, horse-management factors, and equine Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection in California. Horses admitted to the VMTH between July 1 1992 and June 30 1994 served as the study base for case identification and simple random sampling of 800 controls. A questionnaire was mailed to the owners of all horses enrolled in the study to collect data on demographics, management and health-related questions. A logistic-regression model containing age, outdoor activity level, other locations in California, insect-control measures, contact with other horses, and summer pasture was developed. The final model was adjusted for the suspected confounding variables admission type, regular teaching hospital patient and breed. Horses of age between 1 and 2 yrs and between 3 and 5 yrs, and horses in contact with other horses or horses on summer pasture had significantly increased odds (p<0.05) of being diagnosed with C. pseudotuberculosis infection. The results support the hypotheses that the disease predominantly affects young-adult horses of all breeds and both sexes, and that management factors play an important role in occurrence of the disease. Since the existing serological test system is not reliable and destruction of infected animals is not feasible, the most-logical approach for disease prevention is the early identification and isolation of clinical cases and the implementation of management changes like improvement of stable hygiene and insect control and change of pasture practices.     

Evolutionary aspects of the trade-off between seed size and number in crops

Whereas the concept that availability of resources drives seed production is sound in principle, it is incomplete as there are many solutions to the allocation of resources that derive from the trade-off between number and size. This paper examines evolutionary aspects of this trade-off in annual grain crops. The analysis is centred on the working hypotheses that, for a given species and environment, allocation of resources to reproduction involves (H1) high plasticity in seed number, which allows for variable resource availability, and (H2) a relatively narrow range of seed size that results from evolutionary and agronomic selection. Comparisons between crops and fish are used to highlight common evolutionary elements in taxa where parents provide little or no care to their offspring, with the consequence that both number and early survival of offspring, hence fitness of parents, are partially related to embryo size and reserves.

The plasticity of seed number in relation to availability of resources is analysed against the established relationship between offspring number and parent growth rate during critical stages. The notion that seed size is under stabilising selection is analysed against three conditions: (1) mean seed size is conservative for a given species and environment, (2) seed size affects fitness, and (3) seed size is heritable. Databases from published papers were compiled to analyse the relative variability of seed size and number, and the heritability of seed size. Evidence for and against the link between seed size and parental fitness is revised using the Smith–Fretwell model as framework (Am. Nat., 108, 499–506).

The proposal of high plasticity of seed number and narrow variability of seed size resulting from stabilising natural selection is generally consistent with evolutionary and genetic considerations. Agronomic selection may have reinforced natural selection leading to relatively narrow seed size in species such as wheat and soybean, where cultivated types retained high plasticity for seed number. In contrast, selection for one or few inflorescences in crops like sunflower and maize may have morphologically reduced seed number plasticity and increased variability of seed size and its responsiveness to resource availability in relation to their wild ancestors.     

First step of a model of calcium and phosphorus metabolism in growing pigs: Fate of ingested phosphorus in the stomach

Phosphorus (P) digestibility represents complex digestive and metabolic phenomena which are embodied in a unique coefficient. A dynamic mathematical model, based on mechanistic concepts is developed to improve pig feed formulation systems. In this first step, it simulates the fate of different forms of dietary P in the stomach. The model also accounts for dietary calcium (Ca) content, gastric transit time and pH. It simulates consistently the inorganic P released at the exit end of the stomach. However, this model has to be challenged by external data.