宜吉共建黄河壶口瀑布旅游风景名胜区的合作方案研究

黄河壶口瀑布旅游风景名胜区由于地跨晋陕两省,长期以来以行政为单元进行独立开发的模式制约了景区的发展。本文在认真分析了现行的开发模式和三种可供选择的方案之后,提出了一种可行的创新方案。     

灰色灾变理论在宁南山区干旱气候预测中的应用

在分析宁南山区干旱气候特征及其对农业生产影响的基础上 ,借助灰色灾变理论分别建立了春旱、夏旱、秋旱、春夏连旱、夏秋连旱、全年旱等六种干旱类型的 GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,并对 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 2 0年的干旱气候做出预测。经对 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年预测结果验证 ,吻合性良好。此外 ,提出了宁南山区抗旱防旱的综合农业措施。研究结果可对广大旱区抗旱减灾 ,促进农业生产发展提供科学指导。     

关中平原小麦产量对气候变化区域响应的评价模型研究

根据关中地区宝鸡、西安、渭南与咸阳 4地 (市 )的 1 949～ 1 999年的逐年小麦单产记录序列以及 4地 (市 )的气象观测站点自建站以来至 2 0 0 0年近 5 0年的气象记录序列 ,对关中地区小麦产量与年均温、年降水作相关分析 ;探讨了关中地区小麦单产对气候变化区域响应的评价模型。结果发现 :关中平原气候具有暖干化趋势 ;随着气温变暖 ,小麦产量增加幅度减小 ;小麦产量对降水波动的响应比对气温波动的响应显著。     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sporulation of Pyrenopeziza brassicae (light leaf spot) on oilseed rape (Brassica napus) leaves inoculated with ascospores or conidia at different temperatures and wetness durations

In controlled environment experiments, sporulation of Pyrenopeziza brassicae was observed on leaves of oilseed rape inoculated with ascospores or conidia at temperatures from 8 to 20°C at all leaf wetness durations from 6 to 72 h, except after 6 h leaf wetness duration at 8°C. The shortest times from inoculation to first observed sporulation ( l ₀), for both ascospore and conidial inoculum, were 11–12 days at 16°C after 48 h wetness duration. For both ascospore and conidial inoculum (48 h wetness duration), the number of conidia produced per cm² leaf area with sporulation was seven to eight times less at 20°C than at 8, 12 or 16°C. Values of Gompertz parameters c (maximum percentage leaf area with sporulation), r (maximum rate of increase in percentage leaf area with sporulation) and l ₃₇ (days from inoculation to 37% of maximum sporulation), estimated by fitting the equation to the observed data, were linearly related to values predicted by inserting temperature and wetness duration treatment values into existing equations. The observed data were fitted better by logistic equations than by Gompertz equations (which overestimated at low temperatures). For both ascospore and conidial inoculum, the latent period derived from the logistic equation (days from inoculation to 50% of maximum sporulation, l ₅₀) of P. brassicae was generally shortest at 16°C, and increased as temperature increased to 20°C or decreased to 8°C. Minimum numbers of spores needed to produce sporulation on leaves were ≈25 ascospores per leaf and ≈700 conidia per leaf, at 16°C after 48 h leaf wetness duration.     

民勤绿洲生态气候资源及其利用

民勤绿洲边缘 ,光照丰富、温差大 ,有利于农产品质量的提高。但是水资源缺乏 ,地下水位急剧下降和土地沙化是民勤绿洲农业生产的首要问题。如何充分利用现有生态资源 ,并充分提高其利用率是摆在我们面前的一个主要课题。只有通过引进优良品种 ,调整农业种植结构 ,大力推广节水灌溉技术 ,才是解决上述问题的有效途径     

甜菜夜蛾性信息素组分的鉴定及其田间试验

采用气相色谱仪(GC)及气质联用仪(GC-MS)等技术对我国甜菜夜蛾性信息素组分的鉴定结果表明,雌蛾性信息素腺体中含有4种组分,分别为Z9,E12-14:Ac(A)、Z9-14:OH(B)、Z9-14:Ac(C)和Z9,E12-14:OH(D);田间和室内种群各组分的比例(A:B:C:D)分别为47:18:18:17和43:18:23:16,比例及滴度在两种群间未有显著差异;雄蛾田间引诱测定表明,组分A、B显示性信息素活性。几种不同配比的硅橡胶塞诱芯在田间均显示极高的诱蛾活性,以9:1的AB二元诱芯(剂量100μg)最高,其诱蛾量与黑光灯相当,两者呈显著的正相关性,表明该诱芯可替代黑光灯用于甜菜夜蛾的种群测报。利用性诱捕器进行田间种群监测显示,1999年浙江省慈溪市的甜菜夜蛾共发生6代,以第4、5代发生量最高。     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.