阜康绿洲土壤盐渍化特征及其与肥力的相关性分析

本文以电导、可溶性总盐含量和pH作为指标,将阜康绿洲的盐渍化类型划分为9种,其中以强盐渍土和盐土为主,在纬度梯度上从南至北,即从洪积扇下部到沙漠按照中盐渍土-强盐渍土-盐土-强盐渍土-盐土-非盐渍土的顺序依次分布。而土壤含水率却是从洪积下部至扇缘溢出带逐渐升高,在细土平原地区差异较大,在沙漠中又迅速降低。通过土壤剖面中有机质、全量N、P、K和速效N、P、K的分析,结果表明阜康荒漠自然状态下土壤肥力很低,各养分含量在空间上呈现规律性的变化,在纬度梯度上逐渐升高又在沙漠中降低。通过水盐与土壤肥力的相关性分析,结果表明:有机质、全N、P和速P与含水率、电导、总盐均具有显著和极显著正相关,而与pH成负相关,但相关性不显著。由于盐生植物的多样性,在盐渍土和盐土土壤肥力并无显著降低,只是土壤溶液的高盐浓度限制了植物对养分的吸收,因此防止和治理土壤盐渍化是发挥土地生产潜力的重要手段。     

宜吉共建黄河壶口瀑布旅游风景名胜区的合作方案研究

黄河壶口瀑布旅游风景名胜区由于地跨晋陕两省,长期以来以行政为单元进行独立开发的模式制约了景区的发展。本文在认真分析了现行的开发模式和三种可供选择的方案之后,提出了一种可行的创新方案。     

基于不同尺度的干旱区城市景观生态研究--以陕西榆林市为例

从区域与城市两个尺度水平 ,对毛乌素沙漠南缘的榆林市城市景观进行研究认为 :在大尺度水平上 ,区域景观生态特征对城市景观特征具有一定的控制作用 ,而城市景观强大的功能流对区域景观产生干扰作用。城市景观的空间扩展与演化 ,既受区域景观特征的影响 ,也是区域景观演化的一个有机构成部分 ;在小尺度空间上 ,景观功能区、景观斑块与廊道的格局与功能 ,对城市景观格局动态以及维持城市景观多样的生态功能具有重要意义。在不同的利益追求下形成的景观文化 ,将深刻地影响到区域与城市景观演化的方向与过程。     

灰色灾变理论在宁南山区干旱气候预测中的应用

在分析宁南山区干旱气候特征及其对农业生产影响的基础上 ,借助灰色灾变理论分别建立了春旱、夏旱、秋旱、春夏连旱、夏秋连旱、全年旱等六种干旱类型的 GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,并对 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 2 0年的干旱气候做出预测。经对 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年预测结果验证 ,吻合性良好。此外 ,提出了宁南山区抗旱防旱的综合农业措施。研究结果可对广大旱区抗旱减灾 ,促进农业生产发展提供科学指导。     

关中平原小麦产量对气候变化区域响应的评价模型研究

根据关中地区宝鸡、西安、渭南与咸阳 4地 (市 )的 1 949～ 1 999年的逐年小麦单产记录序列以及 4地 (市 )的气象观测站点自建站以来至 2 0 0 0年近 5 0年的气象记录序列 ,对关中地区小麦产量与年均温、年降水作相关分析 ;探讨了关中地区小麦单产对气候变化区域响应的评价模型。结果发现 :关中平原气候具有暖干化趋势 ;随着气温变暖 ,小麦产量增加幅度减小 ;小麦产量对降水波动的响应比对气温波动的响应显著。     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

旅游地空间竞争与弱势旅游地的发展研究

本文在介绍旅游地空间竞争的基础上 ,导入弱势旅游地的概念。并以游客吸引半径为尺度 ,对西安和宝鸡的客源市场竞争进行分析。最后总结了发展弱势旅游地的契机和方法。