Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Biological and Physical Constraints on Maize Production in the Humid Forest and Western Highlands of Cameroon

The aim was to identify biological and physical factors responsible for reducing maize yield in Cameroon. Two surveys were conducted in 137 fields in two agroecological zones in 1995–1997. In the Humid Forest (HF), Bipolaris maydis, Stenocarpella macrospora, Puccinia polysora, Rhizoctonia solani and soil fertility were factors that reduced maize production in 1995 and 1996. In the Western Highlands (WHL), Cercospora zeae-maydis, and the interaction between soil fertility and maize variety were the most important constraints to maize production in 1996. In 1997, C. zeae-maydis, S. macrospora, physiological spot and stem borer damage (Busseola fusca) were negatively related to ear weight. The combination of these biological factors (diseases and insects), and the physical parameter of soil fertility were responsible for reducing maize yield in these selected benchmarks of Cameroon. Maximum potential yield reductions were estimated at 68% due to B. maydis and 46% due to S. macrospora, respectively, in the HF in 1995. In 1996, maximum potential yield reductions in the HF were estimated at 34%, 41% and 30% due to S. macrospora, P. polysora and R. solani, respectively. In the WHL, C. zeae-maydis had the potential to cause a yield reduction of 79% in 1996. In the WHL in 1997, the interaction between C. zeae-maydis and B. fusca, stem diseases and the physiological spot caused potential reductions of 52%, 34% and 39%, respectively.     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

桃品种需冷量评价模式的探讨

 通过1986～2001年对450余份桃品种需冷量的7．2℃模式、0～7．2℃模式(不包括0℃)和犹它模式比较分析，归纳出桃品种需冷量的评价模式为：以秋季日平均温度稳定低于7．2~C的日期为需冷量测定的起点，以0～7．2℃累积低温值作为需冷量的评价标准比较适宜；犹它模式在中需冷量和长需冷量范围内能有效预测休眠的结束，而不适宜低需冷量品种的测定；7．2℃模式不适宜作为需冷量的评价模式。品种的需冷量与叶芽开放和始花期的相关系数分别为0．52和0．58，均达到极显著水平。提出了桃品种需冷量评价的系列标准参照品种。     

新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型的研究

本文在田间试验资料的基础上，综合考虑了影响冬小麦农田蒸散的气象、生物学特性和土壤水分等因素，选用蒸发力、冬小麦的叶面积指数和相对有效土壤湿度建立了新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型，并且检验了该模型的计算效果。     

狂犬病毒中和抗体检测试验中病毒回归试验的重要性

狂犬病毒中和试验的病毒回归试验表明,病毒攻毒液的实际剂量与理论剂量不完全一致.建议在新版<中华人民共和国兽用生物制品质量标准>中增加对病毒攻毒实际剂量范围的规定,以使结果的判定更为合理.     

景观生态学原理与方法在荒漠化研究中应用的理论分析

荒漠化发生发展的过程实际上是指在自然和人为因素的作用下，生态系统结构遭受破坏、功能过程受阻和演变发生异化的过程，其防治的根本措施是恢复和重建健康的生态系统。所以，景观生态学理念在荒漠化的研究和防治中有着重要的意义。本文从荒漠化与生态系统结构、功能变化、荒漠化与生物多样性、荒漠化生态系统的物质循环和能量流动以及荒漠化生态系统的稳定性等方面论述了景观生态学理念在荒漠化研究中应用的可行性，并重点分析了景观生态学关于景观格局变化的评价指标与荒漠化土地动态变化之间的关系。     

有机修饰改性对旱地土壤吸附镉离子特性的影响

研究了以不同比例十六烷基三甲基溴化铵(CTMAB)单一修饰和十六烷基三甲基溴化铵 十二烷基磺酸钠(CTMAB SDS)混合修饰土娄土耕层对重金属镉离子吸附的影响,结果表明:吸附量顺序为耕层原土>50%CTMAB>100%CTMAB 20%SDS>100%CTMAB,温度升高,吸附量上升;最佳吸附等温线模型可以用BET模型描述,热力学参数的研究表明,吸附自发性与吸附量具有相同的变化规律,反应的焓变与熵变共同决定了反应的自发性。从热力学角度对修饰改性土娄土对Cd2 吸附的机理进行了探讨。