Testing variability in pathogenicity ofPhytophthora cactorum, P. citrophthora andP. syringae to apple, pear, peach, cherry and plum rootstocks

The relative virulence ofPhytophthora cactorum andP. syringae originating from almond trees, and ofP. citrophthora originating from citrus, to apple, pear, peach, cherry and plum rootstocks, was studiedin vivo andin vitro. Results of the different experiments were in good agreement. All testedPhytophthora isolates showed little virulence to pear rootstocks-causing only minor crown rot symptoms - and no virulence at all to apple rootstocks. In contrast, they were highly virulent to stone fruit rootstocks, causing crown rot disease. The non-pathogenicity of these isolates to pome rootstocks could be interpreted as strict host specificity.     

山东苹果主要病虫害化学防治技术

山东省苹果园害虫优势种群是蚜虫、桃小食心虫、苹小卷、金纹细蛾、害螨等 ;病害主要是斑点落叶病、轮纹病。根据不同病虫害的发生发展规律和烟台农科院多年来的化学防治试验研究 ,明确了不同苹果品种上适用的有效药剂和不同药剂的杀虫 (菌 )谱、用药适期、施药方法 ,制定了相应的防治策略 ,提出了合理用药、交替施药和安全喷药等诸多注意事项     

福建果树根部的芒果半轮线虫记述

 芒果半轮线虫(Hemicriconemoides mangiferae Siddiqi,1961)在福建省一些果园发生。寄主有龙眼(Euphoria longana)、荔枝(Litchi chinensis)、芒果(Mangifera indica)、橄榄(Canarium album)、枇杷(Eriobotrya japonica)和葡萄(Vitis vinifera)等果树。雌虫唇部正面、环纹和阴门,雄虫侧带以及幼虫角质膜刺突等细微结构用扫描电子显微镜观察。     

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

七星瓢虫对两种麦蚜控制作用的模拟研究

应用二次回归旋转组合设计方法研究了七星瓢虫成虫、幼虫与两种麦蚜共存系统中瓢虫对麦长管蚜和禾谷缢管蚜的捕食量模型。结果表明七星瓢虫对两种麦蚜的捕食量随着瓢虫密度的增加而减少．随着该种麦蚜密度的增加而增加．且七星瓢虫无选择性。七星瓢虫不同个体间的干扰作用对其捕食麦长管蚜数量有显著影响,两种麦蚜数交互作用对七星瓢虫捕食禾谷缢管蚜数量影响显著。该模型可用来预测田间蚜虫的变化．指导麦田蚜虫防治。     

陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究

以实地调查和统计资料,分析了陕西省1949-2003年55 a间耕地面积变化的总体趋势.运用主成分分析方法定量分析了耕地面积变化的驱动因子,结果表明:社会-经济-科技综合作用、退耕还林等2大类因素是影响耕地面积变化的2个主成分.通过建立多元回归模型,对陕西省2010年和2015年的耕地面积进行了预测.研究结果将为合理利用和保护耕地,为干旱地区农业可持续发展提供科学依据.     

AA肉鸡腿肌重活体估测方法的探讨

以AA肉鸡商品代为试验材料,分析0、7、14、21、28、35、42日龄公、母鸡整体和腿肌的累积生长,建立腿肌重(y)与活重(x)之间的直线回归、幂回归、指数回归、对数回归及多项式回归方程,探讨腿肌重的活体估测方法。结果表明,AA肉鸡的腿肌在后期生长迅速,尤其是公鸡在35～42日龄时期表现突出;腿肌重(y)与活重(x)的幂回归、直线回归、多项式回归方程的拟合精度均在0.95左右,效果较好。     

Comparison of homogeneity and heterogeneity of residual variance using random regression test-day models for first lactation Japanese Holstein cows

Using a large‐scale data set that included first lactation test day records from 1975 to 2000 for Japanese Holsteins, genetic parameters for milk yield were estimated by using random regression (RR) test‐day models (TDM) with heterogeneous and homogeneous residual variances. It is necessary for the RR‐TDM to include a function that explains the shape of the lactation curve. The RR‐TDM with the LW curve, which combined Wilmink's curve and a Legendre polynomial, was used for fitting the model for milk yield. In recent years, increases in residual variance have been noted for Japanese dairy cattle. Thus, three kinds of heterogeneous residual variance over the calving year were considered: H1, H2 and HG. Linear and quadratic exponential functions for the calving year were used in H1 and H2, respectively. Residual variance of HG was divided into five groups according to calving year. Homogeneous residual variance was HO. All heterogeneous residual variances increased with calving year in an almost linear fashion. Residual variance increased over the study period. However, there is no need to consider heterogeneous residual variances in genetic evaluations, because the heterogeneity of residual variance over the years did not affect the ranking of top sires and cows.     

多重线性回归法测定猪内源磷排泄量及饲料磷真消化率的研究

本研究旨在采用多重线性回归法测定生长猪内源磷排泄量及高粱和豆粕中磷的真消化率。试验选用6头健康大白×长白阉公猪为消化试验动物,平均体重为(23.6±1.23)kg。采用6×6拉丁方设计,设6个磷水平(0.08%、0.15%、0.23%、0.30%、0.38%、0.53%),以豆粕、葡萄糖、玉米淀粉等为基础,以高粱和豆粕为磷唯一来源,配制半纯合试验饲粮。饲粮中添加0.35%Cr2O3作为外源指示剂。试验分6个试验期,每期8d,其中6d适应期,2d收粪期。饲粮中磷表观消化率受饲粮中磷水平的影响(P<0.05),并随饲粮中磷水平的提高由14.88%增大至34.88%。在以g/kgDMI为计量单位条件下,生长猪粪磷的排出量与饲粮磷的摄入量呈线性关系(P=0.0001)。结果表明,多重线性回归法可用于生长猪内源磷排泄量和植物性饲料磷真消化率的测定;以豆粕-高粱型模型饲粮测定出生长猪内源磷排泄量为0.2940g/kgDMI,高粱中磷的真消化率为56.05%,豆粕中磷的真消化率为39.41%。     

Prediction of multinomial probability of land use change using a bisection decomposition and logistic regression

Land use change is an important research area in landscape ecology and urban development. Prediction of land use change (urban development) provides critical information for making the right policies and management plans in order to maintain and improve ecosystem and city functions. Logistic regression is a widely used method to predict binomial probabilities of land use change when just two responses (change and no-change) are considered. However, in practice, more than two types of change are encountered and multinomial probabilities are therefore needed. The existing methods for predicting multinomial probabilities have limits in building multinomial probability models and are often based on improper assumptions. This is due to the lack of proper methodology and inadequate software. In this study, a procedure has been developed for building models to predict the multinomial probabilities of land use change and urban development. The foundation of this procedure consists of a special bisection decomposition system for the decomposition of multiple-class systems to bi-class systems, conditional probability inference, and logistic regression for binomial probability models. A case study of urban development has been conducted to evaluate this procedure. The evaluation results demonstrated that different samples and bisection decomposition systems led to very similar quality and performance in the developed multinomial probability models, which indicates the high stability of the proposed procedure for this case study.