The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

七星瓢虫对两种麦蚜控制作用的模拟研究

应用二次回归旋转组合设计方法研究了七星瓢虫成虫、幼虫与两种麦蚜共存系统中瓢虫对麦长管蚜和禾谷缢管蚜的捕食量模型。结果表明七星瓢虫对两种麦蚜的捕食量随着瓢虫密度的增加而减少．随着该种麦蚜密度的增加而增加．且七星瓢虫无选择性。七星瓢虫不同个体间的干扰作用对其捕食麦长管蚜数量有显著影响,两种麦蚜数交互作用对七星瓢虫捕食禾谷缢管蚜数量影响显著。该模型可用来预测田间蚜虫的变化．指导麦田蚜虫防治。     

Evaluation of smallholder pig production systems in North Vietnam: Pig production management and pig performances

This study investigated the productive adaptability of pig breeds under different smallholder production conditions in Vietnam, comparing an indigenous with a Vietnamese improved breed. Fieldwork was conducted in four villages with different remoteness in North Vietnam from 2001 to 2002, in 64 households keeping the improved Mong Cai or indigenous Ban as sow breeds and progeny for fattening. Four visits per farm yielded 234 structured interviews. Reproductive performances were derived from 135 litters. Individual weights of pigs (n = 755) were obtained. Data were analysed by regression, linear and generalised linear, especially loglinear models.

Two distinct pig production systems were identified, that differed in remoteness, market access, resource availability, distribution of pig breeds and pig production intensity. Higher performances of 1.4 and 1.5 litters year^− 1, 8.4 and 8.4 piglets weaned litter^− 1, 66.6 and 93.0 kg piglets weaned sow^− 1 year^− 1, and 136 and 177 g day^− 1 ADG were found in two villages near town with semi-intensive production conditions and a high rate of improved Mong Cai sows and MC and LW × MC offspring in the observed population. Lower performances of 1.1 and 1.1 litters year^− 1, 4.6 and 5.5 piglets weaned litter^− 1, 20.5 and 30.9 kg piglets weaned sow^− 1 year^− 1, and 66 and 85 g day^− 1 ADG were observed in parallel to higher incidences of indigenous Ban pigs away from town under extensive conditions. Total live weight offtake per household per year was higher near town and in one village distant to town. MC and LW × MC remained even under demand-driven conditions below the performance potential reported for improved genotypes. Under resource-driven conditions with a saving-oriented production pattern, the higher-yielding but more demanding Mong Cai might not be an efficient production alternative as a further performance reduction can be assumed. A considerable live weight output was observed under resource-driven conditions and with a higher percentage of crossbred LW × Ban offspring in the population, possibly representing a promising production alternative. Factors influencing the performance expression of pigs, and the suitability of different methods for the assessment of performance parameters on-farm are discussed.     

陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究

以实地调查和统计资料,分析了陕西省1949-2003年55 a间耕地面积变化的总体趋势.运用主成分分析方法定量分析了耕地面积变化的驱动因子,结果表明:社会-经济-科技综合作用、退耕还林等2大类因素是影响耕地面积变化的2个主成分.通过建立多元回归模型,对陕西省2010年和2015年的耕地面积进行了预测.研究结果将为合理利用和保护耕地,为干旱地区农业可持续发展提供科学依据.     

利用广义线性模型预测家畜离散性状育种值

将广义线性混合模型(GLMM)引入动物离散性状的遗传分析及个体的遗传评定,初步比较了GLMM方法与一般线性方法(LM)的估计效果。模拟研究的性状为单阈值二项分类性状,选用的连接函数为对数连接μi=eη/(1+eη),方差函数为V(μi)=μ(i1-μi)/n,试验设计为全同胞-半同胞混合家系,参数估计采用Fisher迹法。结果表明:GLMM方法能较准确地估计公畜的个体育种值,在个体的遗传评定效果方面要明显优于常规的线性方法,其预测的育种值排序结果与真实育种值的排序之间存在极显著的相关性(P<0.001)。     

AA肉鸡腿肌重活体估测方法的探讨

以AA肉鸡商品代为试验材料,分析0、7、14、21、28、35、42日龄公、母鸡整体和腿肌的累积生长,建立腿肌重(y)与活重(x)之间的直线回归、幂回归、指数回归、对数回归及多项式回归方程,探讨腿肌重的活体估测方法。结果表明,AA肉鸡的腿肌在后期生长迅速,尤其是公鸡在35～42日龄时期表现突出;腿肌重(y)与活重(x)的幂回归、直线回归、多项式回归方程的拟合精度均在0.95左右,效果较好。     

Multiple intestinal lymphomatous polyposis in a Jindo dog

A male, 5-year-old Jindo dog underwent enterectomy and enteroanastomosis due to ileus of the intestine at a local veterinary hospital. Grossly, the excised intestine showed markedly thickened multinodular masses in the serosal layer of the upper part, and soft-to-firm, cream-colored neoplastic masses that displayed extensive nodular mucosal protuberances into the lumen. The neoplastic masses were filled with large round cells that were ovoid in shape and they had pale and/or hyperchromatic nuclei. The neoplastic cells had mainly infiltrated into the mucosal and submucosal layers, and they had diffusely invaded the muscular and serosal layers. Therefore, the diagnosis of canine multiple intestinal malignant lymphomatous polyposis was made based on the gross and histopathological findings. The origin of these tumor cells was determined to be B-cells since they were positive for anti-CD20.     

Comparison of homogeneity and heterogeneity of residual variance using random regression test-day models for first lactation Japanese Holstein cows

Using a large‐scale data set that included first lactation test day records from 1975 to 2000 for Japanese Holsteins, genetic parameters for milk yield were estimated by using random regression (RR) test‐day models (TDM) with heterogeneous and homogeneous residual variances. It is necessary for the RR‐TDM to include a function that explains the shape of the lactation curve. The RR‐TDM with the LW curve, which combined Wilmink's curve and a Legendre polynomial, was used for fitting the model for milk yield. In recent years, increases in residual variance have been noted for Japanese dairy cattle. Thus, three kinds of heterogeneous residual variance over the calving year were considered: H1, H2 and HG. Linear and quadratic exponential functions for the calving year were used in H1 and H2, respectively. Residual variance of HG was divided into five groups according to calving year. Homogeneous residual variance was HO. All heterogeneous residual variances increased with calving year in an almost linear fashion. Residual variance increased over the study period. However, there is no need to consider heterogeneous residual variances in genetic evaluations, because the heterogeneity of residual variance over the years did not affect the ranking of top sires and cows.     

Postcards from the past: charting the landscape-scale conversion of tropical Australian savanna to closed forest during the 20th century

Repeated sequences of digitised and geo-referenced historical aerial photography provide a powerful means of understanding landscape change. We use this method to demonstrate a landscape wide expansion of closed forest (42% increase in total coverage) in the Australian monsoon tropics over the past five decades. Retrospective habitat suitability models (HSI) of closed forest derived using four landscape measures (drainage distance, slope angle, aspect and elevation) for imagery taken in 1947 correctly forecast the subsequent spatial distribution of the expansion, with topographic fire protection primarily determining the closed-forest distribution. The dynamics of the closed forest-savanna boundary were predicted accurately by generalised linear models, with closed-forest expansion in fire-protected sites along forest edges and regression in the more fire-prone areas. Two factors may plausibly explain the expansion of closed forests. First, eco-ethnographic records stress the skilful use of fire by Aboriginal people in protecting isolated and locally resource-rich closed-forest patches. Second, the recent global increase in atmospheric CO₂ may be changing the competitive balance between savanna and forest by enabling C₃ trees to grow fast enough to escape the fire trap presented by flammable C₄ grasses.     

Fisher大间距线性分类器

作为一种著名的特征抽取方法,Fisher线性鉴别分析的基本思想是选择使得Fisher准则函数达到最大值的向量(称为最优鉴别向量)作为最优投影方向,以便使得高维输入空间中的模式样本在该向量投影后,在类间散度达到最大的同时,类内散度最小。大间距线性分类器是寻找一个最优投影矢量(最优分隔超平面的法向量),它可使得投影后的两类样本之间的分类间距(Margin)最大。为了获得更佳的识别效果,结合Fisher线性鉴别分析和大间距分类器的优点,提出了一种新的线性投影分类算法——Fisher大间距线性分类器。该分类器的主要思想就是寻找最优投影矢量wbest(最优超平面的法向量),使得高维输入空间中的样本模式在wbest上投影后,在使类间间距达到最大的同时,使类内离散度尽可能地小。并从理论上讨论了与其他线性分类器的联系。在ORL人脸库和FERET人脸数据库上的实验结果表明,该线性投影分类算法的识别率优于其他分类器。