Modelling the effects of wetness duration and fruit maturity on infection of apple fruits of Cox's Orange Pippin and two clones of Gala by Venturia inaequalis

The effects were investigated of fruit maturity and duration of wetness on infection of apple fruits by Venturia inaequalis , and subsequent scab development. Incubation rate (inverse of median incubation period) increased linearly with increasing temperature (5–20°C) on detached 5-week-old fruits of cv. Royal Gala. Fruits were highly susceptible in the early stages of development, but became increasingly resistant as they matured. Inoculation of attached 12-week-old and detached near-mature fruits did not result in any lesions, while inoculation of attached 4-, 5-, 7- and 9-week-old fruits resulted in various levels of infection. Fruits of cv. Mondial Gala were more susceptible than those of cv. Cox's Orange Pippin. On cv. Mondial Gala, a wet period of 9 h resulted in ≈ 90% infection of 4-week-old fruits, but only 9% infection of 9-week-old fruits. Numbers of scab lesions on an apple generally followed a Neyman type A rather than a Poisson distribution, indicating a certain degree of aggregation of lesions on a fruit. A two-parameter generalization of the Poisson model described the observed incidence–density relationship well. A longer duration of wetness was required to result in a similar level of scab infection on old fruits to that on young fruits. On cv. Mondial Gala, wet periods of 9 and 32 h were required for ≈ 90% incidence of fruit scab on 4- and 7-week-old fruits, respectively. A mathematical model was developed to relate the incidence of fruit scab to duration of wetness and fruit maturity. The potential use of these results in practical disease management is discussed.     

Effects of temperature and continuous and interrupted wetness on the infection of pear leaves by conidia of Venturia nashicola

Experiments were conducted to determine: (i) the effects of temperature and duration of continuous wet periods on the infection of pear seedlings by conidia of Venturia nashicola , the causal agent of pear scab; and (ii) the effects of the length and temperature of dry interrupting periods on the mortality of infecting conidia. Average number of scab lesions per leaf increased with increasing duration of wetness. Logistic models adequately described the change in the average number of scab lesions per leaf at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25°C over the wetness duration. At 30°C, only a few lesions developed. Simple polynomial models satisfactorily described the relationship of the three logistic model parameters (maximum number of lesions, rate of appearance and the time to 50% of the maximum number of lesions) with temperature. The optimum temperature for infection was found to be approximately 20°C. The relationship between mortality and the length of a dry period interrupting an infection process can be satisfactorily described by an exponential model. The rate of mortality at 10, 16 and 22°C did not differ significantly, but was significantly less than that at 28°C.     

不同性信息素和灯具对甜菜夜蛾与斜纹夜蛾的诱捕效果与评价

利用6种性信息素产品和3种灯具对甜菜夜蛾和斜纹夜蛾进行诱捕对比试验,结果表明:宁波纽康生物技术有限公司的性信息素产品对两种夜蛾的诱蛾量最高、诱芯的持效期长、峰形明显且成本低、使用方便,有助于提高对这两种害虫的预测预报水平。     

Combination Forecasting Models Using Regression Analysis Method

Using regression analysis method,the methods for solving the weights of combination forecasting model(CFM) are proposed. At first, the linear regress CFM are presented based on the least absolute criteria and least square criteria. Then the weights can be evaluated using the least square princinple. Because the objective function of CFM based on least absolute criteria is non differential, the traditional programming methods can not solve it. So the least square method with the modified weights is proposed to solve this problem. At the same time, methods for solving CFM is given with the aim of minimizing sum of percentage error absolutes. From many cases, the results show that the forecasting precision of CFM is very high and the effect of regression is remarkable.     

噬菌体技术在江汉稻区水稻白叶枯病预测上的应用

通过系统测定田水中噬菌体数量的变化规律和噬菌体数量的田块分布规律发现:江汉平原混栽稻区,在目前的种植品种结构下,无论是早稻田还是中稻田,将田水中噬菌体数量达到1000pfu/ml(噬菌斑/毫升)作为急增期数值阈值较为合适。从田水中噬菌体数量达到1000Pfu/ml的日期到该田块发生白叶枯病的始病期的期距为15天左右。当田水中噬菌体数量第1次超过1000pfu/ml时,大量取样测定田块中噬菌体数量的分布情况,此时田水中噬菌体数量超过1000pfu/ml的田块数占测定田块总数的百分率与稻田乳熟期病田率呈显著相关。据此可对白叶枯病的发生期和发生程度进行短期预测。1993和1994年的预测结果与实际情况相符。     

无偏灰色预测模型在农业机械总动力预测中的应用

以我国1997~2005年农业机械总动力数据为基础,将无偏灰色预测模型应用到农业机械总动力预测中,并与传统灰色预测模型进行比较,结果反映了无偏灰色预测模型的优越性,最后预测数据显示2009年我国农业机械总动力将达到85 262.54万kW。     

马铃薯晚疫病预测模型与预警技术研究进展

介绍了马铃薯晚疫病11个预测模型和6个电脑化模型;描述了模型预测的判断标准和预警指标,并作了评价提出存在问题;讨论了建立网络化病害预测模型和实现自动预警配套技术;报道了2003年直接应用于田间马铃薯晚疫病监测技术。     

Response mechanisms of nitrate and ammonia nitrogen concentrations to hydrological processes in the riparian hyporheic zone of pastoral areas北大核心CSCD

In pastoral and irrigated agricultural areas, nitrogen-containing livestock, poultry manure, and nitrogen fertilizers can enter the surface water and groundwater from the soil, and this is the main source of non- point source pollution in basins. The riparian hyporheic zone acts as an effective barrier to reduce the nitrogen pollution load. Understanding the mechanisms of the migration, transformation, and removal of nitrogen in riparian hyporheic zones is key to controlling nitrogen pollution in the whole basin. In this study, an upper reach of the Xilin River, located in typical pastoral areas, was selected and its water levels, ammonia (NH+4) and nitrate (NO-3) concentrations, as well as the related environmental factors of the river water and riparian groundwater during the summer flood season, were continuously monitored. Based on the high- solution measurements, a water flow and nitrogen reactive transport model of the riparian hyporheic zones was established using FEFLOW. The model fitted using the measured data was found to accurately reproduce the water level dynamics and two main nitrogen concentrations in the riparian hyporheic zone. The results indicate that there is a high risk of nitrogen pollution in the riparian zones during the summer flood season. The NH+4concentration in the riparian zones can increase from 0.2 mg · L − 1before rainfall events to 7.23 mg · L − 1after rainfall events, and the NO-3concentration can increase from 1 mg · L − 1to 8.27 mg · L − 1. Both measured and simulated results show that the nitrogen dynamics in the hyporheic zone are closely related to hydrological processes such as rainfall events and groundwater-surface water exchange. During rainfall events, NO-3with high mobility was found to infiltrate from the river and the ground surface into the riparian zone due to the leaching effect, resulting in a significant increase in the concentration. Meanwhile, the groundwater- river water exchange enhanced by rainfall events can further regulate NO-3and NH+4concentrations in the riparian hyporheic zone by controlling the input of nutrients and affecting the biogeochemical nitrogen cycles. This study preliminarily reveals the buffering mechanisms of pastoral riparian zones in the hydrological and biogeochemical processes involving nitrogen and provides scientific references for the nitrogen pollution control in pastoral areas. © 2023 Editorial office of Arid Zone Research. All rights reserved.     

基于.NET的负荷分析与预测系统的研究与实现

介绍了智能式负荷分析、预测与管理系统在.NET下实现,提出了利用体感温度逐点修正预测负荷和基于"预测方案"的思想来组织预测的策略.与传统模式相比,该系统容易维护,便于开放,Web客户端零安装、零维护.通过大量真实数据测试与工程应用,已证明该系统具有智能化程度高、功能全面、操作方便、实用性强、准确率高、维护成本低等特点.为电力负荷预测运行人员提供了一套强有力的工具.