1961～2006年江淮流域极端降水事件变化特征

利用1961~2006年江淮流域降水资料,计算了6种极端降水指数,分析了江淮流域极端降水的时空变化特征。极端降水指数除了大于10 mm天数呈微弱下降趋势外,其他极端降水指数均为上升趋势,其中非常湿天降水量和极端湿天降水量上升趋势最明显。在年代际变化方面,极端降水出现了气候变得更加湿润的特点,但是这种增加趋势并不明显。在极端降水指数空间分布方面,极端降水指数在不同地区的变化情况并不相同,日最大降水日量和连续5 d最大降水量在江淮流域中部和西南部为增加趋势,在江浙的沿海和西北地区为减少趋势。降水日数在江淮流域的北部和西部地区均为减少趋势,而在长江中下游及以南地区为增加趋势。非常湿天降水量和极端湿天降水量则除了在河南和陕西部分地区是减少趋势外,其他地区呈一致的上升趋势。     

基于MOD16A2的锡林郭勒草原近14年的蒸散发时空动态

蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)的时空动态对理解水热对植被的影响具有重要作用。利用MODIS MOD16A2月产品数据和气象数据,通过回归分析、空间变异分析和相关分析等方法,研究锡林郭勒草原不同类型草地近14年(2000-2013年)的ET时空动态及ET对气象要素的响应。结果表明:锡林郭勒草原ET总体表现为由东北部和东南延线向西南部递减的规律,草甸草原 > 典型草原和沙地植被 > 荒漠草原,典型草原和沙地植被无显著差异。各类草原的ET变化趋势相近,均在2003年、2008年和2012年出现波峰,2009年出现波谷。草甸草原、典型草原和总体的ET均有增加趋势,荒漠草原和沙地植被的ET均有减小趋势,但变化均不显著。空间变异分析表明近14年锡林郭勒草原ET的空间变异状况较为稳定。ET与降水量、NDVI、相对湿度和水汽压均成极显著正相关(P < 0.01),相关系数依次降低但都大于0.83;ET与气温、风速和日照时数均为不显著负相关,相关系数分别为-0.51,-0.48和-0.23。     

时空因素对火山优势树种根际真菌群落多样性的影响

以五大连池地区喷发年代相差较大的老黑山(0.02万年前)、东焦得布山(80万年前)和南格拉球山(200万年前)3座火山南北坡为代表,采用PCR-DGGE联用技术研究了火山优势树种根际真菌多样性。结果表明:(1)采用UPGMA法对根际真菌群落结构相似性的分析表明,3座火山根际真菌群落结构相似性随着火山喷发后时间的延长先不变后升高;但南坡和北坡根际真菌群落结构相似性不同。(2)运用BIODAP软件对根际真菌群落多样性的分析表明,3座火山南北坡的均匀度无明显变化,均为0.99;3座火山南坡丰富度和多样性指数均随火山喷发后时间的延长先降低后增加;北坡丰富度和多样性指数均随火山喷发后时间的延长先持平后增加。(3)采用SPSS分析软件对土壤理化性质和根际真菌多样性的相关性分析表明,3座火山南北坡丰富度和多样性指数与土壤有机质之间相关显著(p0.05)。     

基于景观格局指数的江汉平原土地利用覆盖时空变化分析

以江汉平原1993、1994、2010、2011年的TM/ETM+遥感影像为基础数据源,获取不同时期的土地利用/覆盖类型数据,并运用景观格局指数对江汉平原的土地利用/覆盖时空格局变化特征进行深入分析。结果表明:1994~2010年,耕地是江汉平原的优势景观,但其优势地位呈下降趋势,耕地、建设用地、园林地、河流湖泊的斑块数增多,斑块密度增大,耕地、河流湖泊、未利用地的斑块面积减少,建设用地、园林地和坑塘水面的斑块面积增多;江汉平原香农多样性指数、景观形状指数和破碎度指数上升,优势度指数降低,总体景观的多样性水平上升,破碎化程度和异质性增加,完整性和连通性遭到破坏。     

Role reversal in the stand dynamics of an angiosperm–conifer forest: Colonising angiosperms precede a shade-tolerant conifer in Afrotemperate forest

In mixed angiosperm–conifer forests worldwide, infrequent landscape-level catastrophic disturbances create a mosaic of persistent and different aged forest stands in the landscape with varying levels of dominance by the conifer component. In the ‘temporal stand replacement model’ (TSRM), disturbance creates conditions favouring a colonising cohort that is replaced by a suite of relatively shade-tolerant canopy species, which establish following the synchronous senescence of the pioneer canopy. In most southern hemisphere mixed angiosperm–conifer forests, with the exception of those in southern Africa, the establishing cohort is usually a large and very long-lived (550–650 years) conifer that is gradually replaced by angiosperms. As an explanation of the apparent dominance of the conifer Podocarpus latifolius, we examine the efficacy of the TSRM in mixed Afrotemperate forests where the establishing cohort is not a conifer. Forest succession in Afrotemperate forests was deterministic with the successive replacement of species determined first by their establishment success in shaded environments, and second, by their relative longevity. Several angiosperm species that were common canopy dominants established a pioneer cohort but were gradually replaced by P. latifolius, a shade-tolerant species. Continuous regeneration beneath the angiosperm canopy by P. latifolius eliminates synchronous canopy senescence, a key feature of the TSRM, as a mechanism driving the temporal replacement of canopy species. Senescing angiosperms created canopy gaps that were colonised by grasses and ferns, which suppressed canopy tree regeneration. In contrast, with continuous regeneration beneath the shaded canopy, P. latifolius gains a critical advantage over angiosperms at gap formation. Thus, in the absence of fairly large-scale natural disturbances, conifers come to dominate Afrotemperate forests. Commensurate with the latter, conifers in Podocarpus-forest were dated to approximately 320 years, more than 100 years older than the oldest P. latifolius in angiosperm-dominated forest. Tree life-history differences (shade tolerance, longevity) and the time since disturbance drive successional change from an angiosperm-dominated system to a stage dominated by P. latifolius. In general, the TSRM is a plausible explanation for the observed canopy tree structure and dynamics in mixed Afrotemperate forests. South African Afrotemperate forest is unusual among other southern hemisphere mixed angiosperm–conifer forests in that a suite of angiosperm canopy species, rather than a single conifer species, forms the colonising cohort.     

Propagation of positional measurement errors to agricultural field boundaries and associated costs

It has been argued that the upcoming targeted approach to managing field operations, or precision farming, requires that field boundaries are measured with cm level accuracy, thus avoiding losses such as wasted inputs, unharvested crops and inefficient use of the land. This paper demonstrates a method for verification of such claims, based on a statistical model that accounts for temporal correlation in positional measurement errors. Our implementation employs the Data Uncertainty Engine (DUE), which is free software that aids the user in defining probability distributions for uncertain spatial objects, and draws random samples from these distributions. A case study concerning the financial consequences of uncertain geometry for a farmer who uses a digital map to optimise field operations for 15 ha of a potato crop is presented. The error model was parameterised on measurement scenarios representing (1) the Dutch registry of agricultural fields; (2) differential GPS-based field checks for verification of area declarations; and (3) special purpose Real Time Kinematic (RTK)-GPS surveys. We found that a farmer who has a manually digitised map of the study area would benefit from a RTK-GPS survey in a single crop year if the survey would cost less than € 442. An independent test case showed that the results of the error model were consistent with field data.     

淮河流域汉唐时期蝗灾的时空分布特征——淮河流域历史农业灾害研究之二

通过对历史灾害史料的搜集整理,研究淮河流域汉唐时期蝗灾发生的时空分布特征。结果表明,蝗灾的发生具有很强的阶段性和集中性,但并无明显的周期性,同时它和旱灾之间存在着极高的相关度。从月份分布来看,阴历4~8月是蝗灾的高发期。从季节分布来看,主要集中在夏、秋季,尤其夏季是蝗灾最为高发的季节。蝗虫可以大规模迁徙,因而其灾区具有流动性和广泛性,从总体上说,汉唐时期大部分蝗灾发生于淮北地区,淮南地区只有十几次记录。淮北蝗灾的分布具有普遍性的特点,几乎每个地区都有发生,而淮南地区则以西部为多,东部则主要发生于今扬州附近一带。     

利用50年人工观测资料分析河南省末雷暴日特征

利用河南省1957-2005年121个有效气象台站雷暴观测资料,对河南省末雷暴日进行初步分析。结果表明,全省末雷暴日有明显的年际变化特征,末雷暴日随着年份的增加有推迟的趋势,统计发现1977-2005年平均末雷暴日比1957-1976年平均末雷暴日推迟6 d,末雷暴日的推迟可能是由温度升高引起的。统计末雷暴日的雷暴天气发生时段发现,12:00-16:00时段发生的雷暴最多,占到全部雷暴次数的43.4%,其次是16:00-20:00,占到总时段的24.0%,雷暴次数最少的时段是00:00-04:00和20:00-24:00,这与全省雷暴日的日变化特征存在较大差异。全省末雷暴日的空间分布大概分3个区域:西南及南部区域末雷暴日结束最迟,其次是北部区域,中部末雷暴日结束较早,末雷暴日较迟的区域多分布在山区或气温较高的南部,这些分布特征与雷暴日数的空间分布比较一致。     

不同养分条件下太子参根部土壤环境变化及综合评价

研究不同养分条件下太子参根部土壤环境变化的时间动态,探索太子参根部土壤环境的综合评价方法,可为指导太子参高效栽培提供理论基础。于3个不同土壤养分地块上分别种植太子参,定期监测其根部土壤化学性质、土壤酶活性及微生物种群结构变化,用主成分分析进行综合评价。结果表明：太子参整个生长时期,不同土壤养分条件下太子参根部土壤均以全磷、缓效钾、有效磷、速效钾含量以及土壤酸性转化酶（S-AI）和土壤过氧化氢酶（S-CAT）活性变异度最大;有机质及氮素含量、土壤酸性磷酸酶（S-ACP）、土壤脲酶（S-UE）及土壤多酚氧化酶（S-PPO）活性变异度较小;太子参成熟后,细菌和放线菌菌群数量显著增加,真菌菌群数量显著减少。测定的16个土壤环境指标中较多指标间显著相关,出现信息重叠,影响评价结果的客观性;以基本特征值大于1抽取5个成分,利用5个成分函数表达式进行综合评分,结果得出,各土壤养分含量越高,综合得分值越大,土壤环境越优。上述结果说明：太子参生育期内磷、钾素变化较大,及时补足磷、钾肥可能是改善太子参根部土壤环境的有效方法之一。利用主成分综合评分方法能客观、高效评价太子参根部土壤环境情况。     

近30年中国太阳总辐射时空特征及趋势分析

[目的]研究近30年我国太阳总辐射时空分布特征及长期变化趋势。[方法]利用全国62个站点1986—2015年太阳总辐射实测资料,分析了总辐射时空分布以及变化趋势。[结果]我国太阳年总辐射总体呈现出较为明显的波动上升趋势,而季节总辐射上升幅度从大到小依次为春季、夏季、冬季、秋季;太阳总辐射呈现出西北高、东南低,内陆高、沿海低,高原高、平原低,干燥区高、湿润区低的空间分布特征,青藏高原、川黔渝山地分别为我国太阳总辐射高值和低值区;春夏两季太阳总辐射的增加是全年总辐射上升的主要原因;1996—2005年总辐射量的显著增加是导致30年来我国总辐射量增加的重要原因之一。[结论]该研究可为我国太阳能资源的有效利用提供重要科学依据。