柯布──道格拉斯模型在喷灌经营管理中的应用

本文以柯布──道格拉斯生产函数模型，研究分析喷灌经营管理运行中诸生产要素与总效益之间的关系，这为评估喷灌的运行管理现状及水平是否适应低耗高质高效的要求，提供了研究方法。     

车辆防抱制动系统滑移率自适应控制策略

分析了车辆制动过程的数学模型,为了克服模型非线性、变参数对系统的影响,采用了参考模型自适应控制.为了适应各种路况条件,使车辆以比较理想的滑移率制动,缩短制动时间,提出了滑移率自适应调节方法.通过仿真证明,该方法简单可行,控制效果好.     

Wood Production Potentials of Fenno-Scandinavian Forests Under Nature-Orientated Management

In Finland, Norway and Sweden forest management is presently changing towards a more nature-orientated management. In this study the European Forest Information SCENario (EFISCEN) model was applied to determine how this change might affect the potential for wood production in the three countries. Three different management regimes, traditional, traditional with nature conservation (''conservation''), and longer rotations with nature conservation (''conservation +''), were combined with two alternative felling levels. The results show that conserving 6.1-8.8% of the older forests in the southern regions had no limiting effects on production levels, as foreseen by the European Timber Trend Studies V by the UN-ECE for Finland and Sweden. Under the conservation + scenario, maximum sustainable felling levels decreased to 84, 79 and 72% of the present levels in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Increasing the rotation length put more pressure on the older age classes and thus did not increase the average age of the forest. If the consumption of wood increases as quickly as indicated by other studies, it will be hard to fulfil that demand and at the same time conserve considerable areas of forest in the southern regions of the countries.     

菜粉蝶绒茧蜂种群空间分布型及其应用

本文应用频次分布x~2检验法,Iwao法,Taylor幂法则以及其它聚集指标等方法,分析研究了菜粉蝶绒茧蜂种群(茧块)的空间分布型。结果表明:菜粉蝶绒茧蜂茧块在甘蓝上呈聚集分布,分布的基本成分是以个体群形式存在,个体群之间是随机的,茧块的聚集是由寄主等环境因素引起的。此外,利用分布型参数确定了理论抽样数及序贯抽样。     

宁夏盐池半荒漠风沙区PRED综合研究系统动态仿真

本文分析了ＰＲＥＤ综合研究的特点及应用系统动力学模型于盐池半荒漠风沙区进行综合研究的可能性，并且利用系统动力学专用语言ＤＹＮＡＭＯ进行建模，并对仿真结果进行分析，其结果证明利用系统动力学模型进行ＰＲＥＤ研究是行之有效的方法。     

河套灌区粮食作物分层种植超吨粮田小气候生态效应研究

本文采用一元二次回归分析方法，对黄河河套灌区超吨粮田不同层次的光温风分布状况进行了定量分析，求算了三因子在不同层次的最佳指标值Ｘ１及其相应的期望产量值Ｙ＿（ｍａｘ）。鉴于植株２／３处光温风分布综合反映了群体结构的生产潜力，故组建了２／３层次的多元非线性复合小气候效应模型。给出了亩产１２５０．０公斤的超吨粮理论指标。指出实现这一理论产量的关键，是广泛推广玉米催芽栽培技术。     

甘肃秦王川灌区土壤盐分特征及次生盐渍化预测

在秦王川灌区水文地质条件和土壤盐分含量特征调查研究的基础上,采用有限差分法建立了预测模型,对灌溉实施后1～5年间地下水位及其埋深变化进行了预测。结果表明,地下水位呈普遍抬升趋势,可导致约2000ha土地产生次生盐渍化。如果不及时采取防治措施,土壤次生盐渍化面积还会进一步扩大。     

Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R₀) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R₀ was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.     

Bayesian methods for estimating pathogen prevalence within groups of animals from faecal-pat sampling

Pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. have been implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning in the UK and elsewhere. Domestic animals and wildlife are important reservoirs for both of these agents, and cross-contamination from faeces is believed to be responsible for many human outbreaks. Appropriate parameterisation of quantitative microbial-risk models requires representative data at all levels of the food chain. Our focus in this paper is on the early stages of the food chain-specifically, sampling issues which arise at the farm level. We estimated animal–pathogen prevalence from faecal-pat samples using a Bayesian method which reflected the uncertainties inherent in the animal-level prevalence estimates. (Note that prevalence here refers to the percentage of animals shedding the bacteria of interest). The method offers more flexibility than traditional, classical approaches: it allows the incorporation of prior belief, and permits the computation of a variety of distributional and numerical summaries, analogues of which often are not available through a classical framework. The Bayesian technique is illustrated with a number of examples reflecting the effects of a diversity of assumptions about the underlying processes. The technique appears to be both robust and flexible, and is useful when defecation rates in infected and uninfected groups are unequal, where population size is uncertain, and also where the microbiological-test sensitivity is imperfect. We also investigated the determination of the sample size necessary for determining animal-level prevalence from pat samples to within a pre-specified degree of accuracy.     

Use of Akaike information criteria for model selection and inference. An application to assess prevention of gastrointestinal parasitism and respiratory mortality of Guinean goats in Kolda,Senegal

A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg⁻¹, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.

Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.

Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR).