天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

Apparent seroprevalence,isolation and identification of risk factors for brucellosis among dairy cattle in Goa,India

Brucellosis is a highly contagious zoonotic infection affecting livestock and human beings. The disease has been reported worldwide except in few countries where it has been eradicated. The prevalence of brucellosis among cattle from 11 farms having a history of abortions was studied. A total of 481 samples comprising of blood, milk, vaginal swabs, vaginal discharges, placental tissues and fetal tissues were collected from 296 animals. Clinical samples were processed for the isolation of Brucella. Serum samples (n = 296) were tested by Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and indirect ELISA. A total of 90 (30.40%) and 123 (41.55%) samples were positive by RBPT and indirect ELISA, respectively. Also 27.02% samples were positive by both the tests. Brucella isolates (n = 8) were recovered from clinical samples using Brucella selective media. All the isolates demonstrated PCR amplification for the bcsp31 and IS711 genes. Amplification of Brucella abortus specific primer was demonstrated by all the isolates in AMOS PCR indicating isolates to be of either B. abortus biotype 1, 2 or 4. Risk factors for transmission of brucellosis among cattle population were studied by field surveys. It was observed that lack of awareness about brucellosis (OR = 8.739, P = 0.138) and inadequate floor space (OR = 0.278, P = 0.128) were crucial risk factors for transmission of bovine brucellosis.     

Risk factors associated with the incidence rate of clinical mastitis in smallholder dairy cows in the Dar es Salaam region of Tanzania

Smallholder dairy herds around the Dar es Salaam region of Tanzania supply 86% of raw milk consumed by the city dwellers. Previous studies have indicated that clinical mastitis is an important disease affecting smallholder dairy cows and an 18-month questionnaire-based longitudinal field-study was conducted between July 2003 and March 2005 to elucidate risk factors associated with the incidence. A total of 6057 quarter-level observations from 317 lactating cows on 87 randomly selected smallholder dairy herds were analysed at the quarter and cow level using logistic and Poisson regression models, respectively. At the quarter level, the average incidence rate of clinical mastitis was 38.4 cases per 100 quarter-years at risk whereas at the cow level the incidence rate was 43.3 cases per 100 cow-years at risk. The incidence was significantly (P< or =0.001) associated with cow factors (body condition score, parity, stage of lactation, and udder consistency), housing (floor type) conditions and milking (cow and udder preparation) practices. It was concluded that the extrapolation of the classic ten-point mastitis control plan into smallholder dairy herds should be undertaken cautiously. An integrated approach to dairy extension should focus more on the creation of mastitis awareness among smallholder producers and on the improvement of animal nutrition and reproduction indices-factors that may also have a direct impact on milk yield.     

Risk factors associated with sero-positivity to Toxoplasma gondii in captive neotropical felids from Brazil

From September 1995 to February 2001, blood samples were collected from 865 neotropical felids belonging to 8 different species. These animals were housed in 86 institutions located in 78 cities of 20 Brazilian states. Our goal was to identify the risk factors associated with sero-positivity to Toxoplasma gondii in captive neotropical felids from Brazil. All serum samples were tested by the modified agglutination test (MAT), using formalin-fixed whole tachyzoites and mercaptoethanol. For each animal an individual questionnaire was filled with questions about tattoo number, felid species, age, sex, origin, number of animals in the group, introduction of new animals in the group, time in the institution, eating meat previously frozen for a period <7 days in the last 6 months, eating meat of run-over or euthanized animals in the last 6 months, predation of rodents or birds in the last 6 months and presence of domestic cats near the enclosures in the last 6 months. The total sero-prevalence was 55% (95% CI: 52%, 57%). We estimated a prevalence of 46% (95% CI: 40%, 54%) for jaguarundi (Puma yagouaroundi); 58% (95% CI: 53%, 63%) for ocelot (Leopardus pardalis); 50% (95% CI: 45%, 56%) for oncilla (L. tigrinus); 54% (95% CI: 46%, 62%) for margay (L. wiedii); 12% (95% CI: 4%, 31%) for Pampas-cat (L. colocolo); 83% (95% CI: 65%, 93%) for Geoffroy's-cat (L. geoffroyi); 64% (95% CI: 50%, 68%) for jaguar (Panthera onca) and 48% (95% CI: 42%, 54%) for puma (Puma concolor). Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between the variables in the questionnaire and sero-positivity to T. gondii. We concluded that the independent risk factors for toxoplasmosis were: age >3 years (OR = 4.75 [2.75; 8.2]), eating meat previously frozen for a period <7 days (OR = 2.23 [1.24; 4.01]), and consumption of animals that were run-over or euthanized (OR = 1.64; [1.14; 2.37]).     

Practical Methods of Investment Risk Analysis at Construction Project

This paper discusses practical methods of investment risk analysis at a construction project,applying the Xifang Economics Principle and the Mathematical statistics etc, It has reference value for improving the Feasibility Research(FR)and Investment Decisions.     

Resource allocation tradeoffs in Manila’s peri-urban vegetable production systems: An application of multiple objective programming

This paper designed and developed a multi-objective programming (MOP) model to illustrate the dynamic relationship among technologies, productive activities, constraints and farmers’ objectives in the peri-urban vegetable production system and use the model as an economic tool in analysing probable consequences of a given action or innovation on the farm. The best compromise solution was generated using four analytical steps, as follows: single-objective optimization (to determine the ideal and anti-ideal values of the objective functions); constrained optimization (to generate the set of Pareto non-dominated solutions); cluster analysis (to trim down efficient set into smaller homogeneous groups); and compromise programming (to determine where the best compromise solution lies).     

食源性致病菌单细胞观测与预测的研究进展

微生物在单细胞水平下的生长普遍具有随机性和变异性,同时低菌量污染食品所造成的危害风险亦不可忽视,因此食源性致病菌单细胞的生长观测及预测研究逐渐成为食品预测微生物学及食源性致病菌风险评估的研究热点。在分析现有相关文献的基础上,将目前主要的食源性致病菌单细胞生长观测研究分为间接推断和直接观测两类方法;同时对食源性致病菌单细胞生长预测的模型参数与建模过程进行概述,比较了传统预测微生物的决定模型与微生物单细胞的随机模型二者之间的区别,强调了单细胞生长模型需在随机建模的基础上开展,并通过个体建模方法进一步联系其与所在食品环境之间的关系。最后,分析了食源性致病菌单细胞生长观测与预测的现状,并展望了其未来与食品安全风险评估相结合的发展趋势。     

桉蝙蛾在广西的发生危害监测与风险分析

报道桉蝙蛾2005-2011年广西13个市30县、林场发生监测情况,指出2010年后发生的地区迅猛增加,有6市16县、林场新发生。除了普遍危害广林9号桉外,还在3229和DH201-2上发现。根据风险分析,桉蝙蛾的R=1.911属于接近高度危险的森林有害生物。因此认为桉蝙蛾应列入中国主要林业危险性有害生物名单。     

住房抵押贷款风险控制实证研究——基于中国银行某分行的数据分析

王先谦的《荀子集解》一书，是晚清诸子学的一部重要著述，是研究和整理《荀子》一书的集大成之作。王氏的学术成就主要体现在两个方面：一是他吸纳了清代学者中研究和整理杨倞注《荀子》一书最有代表性的成果，并对各家之说作了一个梳理和辨析；二是他个人对《荀子》以及杨注的校勘、注释、考辨等方面超出了前人的成就。