乡村社区总体营造发展模式之探讨

乡村地区之社区总体营造是目前台湾近年来各公部门所极力推行的社区再造运动，发展模式主要是以民间力量为基础。相关部门所扮演的角色则是经费及技术支持者。由于社区总体营造所涵盖的范畴极为广泛，因此大部分营造成功的社区是在推动社造初期时就将社区未来的发展定位的某个范围里。以台湾彰化县仑雅乡村为例。发展成生态社区、人文社区、古迹文化社区等多种范围的定位，有明确的定位后在逐渐发展出社区未来营造的主轴，随着营造主轴有顺序的制定发展方针。现已成功地让乡村民众能够透过概念式的构想延伸至发展策略来进行社区营造的实际进行。并且有效的提升社区民众参与公共事务的比例。让推动者藉由社造概念的启发了解社区未来营造的方向及目标。     

资金限制情况下投资项目的最优组合决策模型

资金限额条件下投资项目的最优组合是某些企业经常遇到的问题。对这些项日进行组合与投资安排，不仅要考虑各项目的投资额大小，还要考虑项目投资先后顺序、先期投资项目的盈利对后期投资项目所得资金的补充等情况。为此，建立了两类常见的资金限制情况下的最优组合决策问题的优化模型，并举例进行了计算。     

山地植物群落生物多样性与生物生产力海拔梯度变化研究进展

文中从生物学谱中群落和生态系统尺度，根据国内外的野外观测文献，总结了山地植被在群落生物多样性和生物生产力2方面的海拔梯度变化特征，以及群落生物生产力与生物多样性的关系，并提出目前该领域研究的几个热点问题。     

A review of stand basal area growth models

Growth and yield modeling has a long history in forestry. The methods of measuring the growth of stand basal area have evolved from those developed in the U.S.A. and Germany during the last century. Stand basal area modeling has progressed rapidly since the first widely used model was published by the U.S. Forest Service. Over the years, a variety of models have been developed for predicting the growth and yield of uneven/even-aged stands using stand-level approaches. The modeling methodology has not only moved from an empirical approach to a more ecological process-based approach but also accommodated a variety of techniques such as: 1) simultaneous equation methods, 2) difference models, 3) artificial neural network techniques, 4) linear/nonlinear regres-sion models, and 5) matrix models. Empirical models using statistical methods were developed to reproduce accurately and precisely field observations. In contrast, process models have a shorter history, developed originally as research and education tools with the aim of increasing the understanding of cause and effect relationships. Empirical and process models can be married into hybrid mod-els in which the shortcomings of both component approaches can, to some extent, be overcome. Algebraic difference forms of stand basal area models which consist of stand age, stand density and site quality can fully describe stand growth dynamics. This paper reviews the current literature regarding stand basal area models, discusses the basic types of models and their merits and outlines recent progress in modeling growth and dynamics of stand basal area. Future trends involving algebraic difference forms, good fitting variables and model types into stand basal area modeling strategies are discussed.     

祁连山北坡青海云杉中龄林结构随海拔的变化

在祁连山北坡中段的大野口流域,沿海拔梯度(2 500~3 300 m)调查了青海云杉中龄林的结构,并分海拔段(每100 m)进行统计。结果表明:1)研究区森林密度较大但树木个体较小,密度、胸径、树高和冠幅直径(平均值±SD)分别为1 550±628 株·hm^-2、13.9±6.2 cm、8.1±3.7 m和3.3±1.7 m。随海拔升高,密度降低、平均胸径和冠幅直径增加,平均树高呈"单峰"变化,峰值在海拔2 800~2 900 m。2)研究区森林的径级组成以小树(DBH: 5~12.5 cm)和中树(DBH: 12.5~22.5 cm)为主,树高(H)以6~12 m的树木为主。随海拔升高,林内幼树(DBH≤5 cm)比例基本稳定,小树比例略有下降,中树比例呈"单峰"变化,峰值在2 800~2 900 m,大树(DBH>22.5 cm)比例增加。H≤6 m的树木比例呈"V"字型变化,在海拔2 800~2 900 m最低,H为6~12 m和H>12 m的树木比例均呈"单峰"变化,峰值分别在海拔2 600~2 700 m和海拔2 800~2 900 m。3)林分高径比介于0.45~0.73,胸高断面积介于7.86~33.32 m²·hm^-2,随海拔升高两者均呈"单峰"变化,峰值在海拔2 800~2 900 m。分析表明,随海拔升高,青海云杉林的结构呈明显变化,并在中间海拔区(海拔2 800~2 900 m)达到最优。因此,分海拔区段建立森林结构与水文过程的定量关系并进行生态水文模型的参数设置十分必要。     

海拔对锥栗品种抗栗瘿蜂性表达的影响

通过调查不同海拔锥栗林分和锥栗品种受栗瘿蜂危害的情况,研究海拔对锥栗抗栗瘿蜂性表达的影响。结果表明:高海拔不利于锥栗抗栗瘿蜂性的表达;品种抗栗瘿蜂性在不同海拔地区的表达程度与品种抗性大小有关,品种抗性越高,其抗虫性表达受海拔的影响越小,在高海拔地区越能体现其对栗瘿蜂的抑制作用。     

A jack pine survival model for spring-lifting and planting delays in Ontario

The general problem of developing a model capable of exploring the survival response of seedlings to tradeoffs in the timing of spring lifting, planting and cold storage was investigated. After the construction of an overall model framework, one general and three specific functions to predict first-year survival for batches of 2 + 0 jack pine seelings were developed. The independent variables required by the functions include: cold storage duration (days), average air and soil temperature during planting (°C), cumulative degree days at time of planting (°C), ratio of terminal-to-top length at time of lifting, and cumulative degree days at time of lifting (°C). A brief example of the type of use to which such functions could be put, and an indication of the expected level of confidence that may be placed in such a prediction, is presented. The survival functions developed in this study were not designed for widespread use throughout the Province of Ontario. At most they should be limited to 2 + 0 jack pine planting stock originating from Swastika Nursery, and planted nearby.Approved for publication as Journal Article No. J-7315 of the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, Mississippi State University.     

Predicting regeneration establishment in Norway spruce plantations using a multivariate multilevel model

This study predicts the regeneration establishment on 3-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) plantations in southern Finland using regeneration survey data. Regeneration establishment was described by seven response variables: number of planted spruces, natural Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), natural spruces, natural seed-origin birches (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. pendula Roth.) and other broadleaves (i.e. sprout-origin birches and other broadleaves than birch), as well as height of crop-tree spruce and dominant height of broadleaves. Due to the multivariate (several responses for each plot) and multilevel (plot, stand, municipality, forest centre) structure, regeneration establishment was modelled by fitting a multivariate multilevel model with explanatory variables such as temperature sum, site fertility, soil quality and method of site preparation. In the model, the numbers of tree seedlings were modelled using over-dispersed Poisson distributed equations, and the tree heights were modelled using normally distributed linear equations. The estimated fixed and random parameters of the equations were logical, and there was no serious bias in predicting the regeneration establishment in the independent test data set. This modelling approach can be used to predict the regeneration establishment stochastically by taking into account the large unexplained variation in regeneration models.     

Annualized diameter and height growth equations for Pacific Northwest plantation-grown Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder

Simulating the influence of intensive management and annual weather fluctuations on tree growth requires a shorter time step than currently employed by most regional growth models. High-quality data sets are available for several plantation species in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, but the growth periods ranged from 2 to 12 years in length. Measurement periods of varying length complicate efforts to fit growth models because observed growth rates must be interpolated to a common length growth period or those growth periods longer or shorter than the desired model time step must be discarded. A variation of the iterative technique suggested by Cao [Cao, Q.V., 2000. Prediction of annual diameter growth and survival for individual trees from periodic measurements. Forest Sci. 46, 127–131] was applied to estimate annualized diameter and height growth equations for pure plantations of Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder. Using this technique, fits were significantly improved for all three species by embedding a multi-level nonlinear mixed-effects framework (likelihood ratio test: p < 0.0001). The final models were consistent with expected biological behavior of diameter and height growth over tree, stand, and site variables. The random effects showed some correlation with key physiographic variables such as slope and aspect for Douglas-fir and red alder, but these relationships were not observed for western hemlock. Further, the random effects were more correlated with physiographic variables than actual climate or soils information. Long-term simulations (12–16 years) on an independent dataset using these annualized equations showed that the multi-level mixed effects models were more accurate and precise than those fitted without random effects as mean square error (MSE) was reduced by 13 and 21% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. The level of prediction error was also smaller than an existing similar growth model with a longer time step (ORGANON v8) as the annualized equations reduced MSE by 17 and 38% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. These models will prove to be quite useful for understanding the interaction of weather and silviculture in the Pacific Northwest and refining the precision of future growth model projections.     

Modelling cork oak production in Portugal

The layout of 32 permanent plots in the most important cork production regions of Portugal and the measurement of the most representative tree parameters were performed for statistically sound cork weight modelling. The establishment of cork weight equations is presented for the different cork oak study areas considered alone or grouped according to the most representative tree parameters. For the presented cork weight models was chosen independent variable the total stripping surface (artmax). For the selection criteria five statistic were used, including PRESS, APRESS and Mallows's statistic. The crossvalidation of the best classified models was performed and to discuss the importance of the “study area” factor, a regression analysis with “dummy” variables was performed.