Estimation of Runoff,Peak Discharge and Sediment Load at the Event Scale in a Medium‐Size Mediterranean Watershed Using the Annagnps Model

In this paper, the Annualized Agricultural Non‐Point Source (AnnAGNPS) model has been used to estimate runoff, peak discharge and sediment load at the event scale in a Mediterranean watershed. The study area is the Carapelle torrent, Southern Italy (area = 506 km²), where continuous rainfall, streamflow and sediment load data are available. Nineteen flood events have been registered in the period 2007–2009 and were used for the application of the model. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the model at the event scale, in a medium‐size watershed, given the specific conditions of the semi‐arid environments. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to assign the correct parameterization: the mean normalized output variation of the most meaningful input parameters pointed out the influence of the curve number on runoff, peak discharge and sediment load predictions (values greater than 1); the MN Manning's roughness coefficient and K, C and P factors of the universal soil loss equation showed a moderate influence on sediment load simulations (values between 0·5 and 1). The selection of the Soil Conservation Service synthetic storm types has been based on the observed storm events analysis to improve the peak discharge simulations. The model prediction has proved to be good for runoff (R² = 0·74, NSE = 0·75, W = 0·92) and peak discharge (R² = 0·85, NSE = 0·70, W = 0·94), and satisfactory for sediment yield (R² = 0·70, NSE = 0·63, W = 0·91). The relative error is lower for high events; this result is quite interesting in semi‐arid environments, where most of the annual sediment yield is concentrated in a few, severe events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENT CONTROL OF THE COLD STORAGE

The predictive intelligent control scheme is proposed, which is based on approximation theory and numerical method of Chcbyshev orthogonal polynomial. It has the practical value to the cold storge using widely electromagnetic valve and can be also applied similar systems in orther area.     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

Hydraulic-hydrological simulations of canal-command for irrigation water management

A modelling system that combines the hydraulic simulations of the canal and hydrological simulations of the irrigated command is introduced. It uses MIKE 11 and MIKE SHE, two well-established modelling systems, for the hydraulic and hydrological simulations respectively. In addition, it also has an irrigation scheduling module and a crop growth module. The modelling system is applied to the Mahanadi Reservoir Irrigation Scheme, a large irrigation project in Central India. The results show that presently a significant amount of water is wasted in the command during the monsoon season. It is demonstrated that the minimization of this wastage could lead to a substantial crop production in the subsequent dry season. Furthermore, the simulations illustrate the versatility of the modelling system for planning and analysing the various aspects of an irrigation project.     

湖南省节水灌溉分区与规划

将模糊聚类方法用于湖南省节水灌溉分区，建立了湖南省节水灌溉区划模型，将系统动力学的动态仿真原理用于节水灌溉发展规划，建立了节水灌溉发展规划的动态仿真模型。据此，提出了湖南省节水灌溉区划，并对各分区及全省“九五”期间节水浇灌发展作了详细规划。     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

The effect of salinity on corn yield using the CERES-maize model

In most cases, when calculating soil water availability, only thewater content is considered. The effect of salinity on the wiltingpoint is neglected. The objective of this work is to use asimulation model (CERES-maize) in order to predict cornyields as a function of water salinity under severalenvironmental, agrotechnical, and plant characteristics. A modelis presented in which the wilting point is a function of the soilsalt content. At high salinity, the water content at wilting pointis higher than at low salinity, resulting in an insufficient amountof available water and, therefore, a reduced yield. The modelwas used to simulate several theoretical and experimentalsituations for forage corn and grain corn. Simulation resultsshowed that nitrogen fertilization increases the salinity thresholdvalue and the yield sensitivity (rate of yield reduction per unitof salinity). The also showed that forage corn is more sensitiveto salinity than grain corn. If the soil is not leached, a heaviersoil texture has a higher salinity threshold value. On the otherhand, if the soil is leached, the soil texture has no influence onthe salinity threshold value and the yield is less sensitive tosalinity in sandy soils. The determination coefficient (r²= 0.75) indicated that the results of the simulations were in goodagreement with the field data.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.     

Using drainage systems for supplementary irrigation

The use of drainage systems for supplementary irrigation is widespread in The Netherlands. One of the operating policies is to raise the surface water level during the growing season in order to reduce drainage (water conservation) or to create subsurface irrigation. This type of operation is based on practical experience, which can be far from optimal.To obtain better founded operational water management rules a total soil water/surface water model was built. In a case study the effects of using the drainage system in a dual-purpose manner on the arable crop production were simulated with the model. Also, the operational rules for managing this type of dual-purpose drainage systems were derived.The average annual simulated increase in crop transpiration due to water conservation and water supply for subsurface irrigation are 6.0 and 5.4 mm.y^–1, respectively. This is equivalent with 520 × 10³ and 460 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for the pilot region (2 Dfl 1 US $). The corresponding investments and operational costs are 600 × 10³ Dfl and 9 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for water conservation and 3200 × 10³ Dfl and 128 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for subsurface irrigation. Hence, water conservation is economically very profitable, whereas subsurface irrigation is less attractive.Comparing the management according to the model with current practice in a water-board during 1983 and 1986 learned that benefits can increase with some 50 and 500 Dfl per ha per year, respectively.     

食源性致病菌单细胞观测与预测的研究进展

微生物在单细胞水平下的生长普遍具有随机性和变异性,同时低菌量污染食品所造成的危害风险亦不可忽视,因此食源性致病菌单细胞的生长观测及预测研究逐渐成为食品预测微生物学及食源性致病菌风险评估的研究热点。在分析现有相关文献的基础上,将目前主要的食源性致病菌单细胞生长观测研究分为间接推断和直接观测两类方法;同时对食源性致病菌单细胞生长预测的模型参数与建模过程进行概述,比较了传统预测微生物的决定模型与微生物单细胞的随机模型二者之间的区别,强调了单细胞生长模型需在随机建模的基础上开展,并通过个体建模方法进一步联系其与所在食品环境之间的关系。最后,分析了食源性致病菌单细胞生长观测与预测的现状,并展望了其未来与食品安全风险评估相结合的发展趋势。