黄土高原北部草地表层土壤水分状态空间模拟

为探明黄土高原北部草地表层土壤水分空间分布特征及其与环境因素的关系,该文用自回归状态空间模型和经典统计的线性回归模型对该区草地表层土壤含水率的分布状况进行了模拟。结果表明,状态空间方程可以应用于环境因素复杂的黄土高原水蚀风蚀交错区,其拟合效果优于线性回归模型。单因素中基于饱和导水率的模拟效果最佳（R2 = 0.936）;多因素模拟中以饱和导水率+海拔+凋落物模拟效果最佳（R2 = 0.976）,可以很好地解释表层土壤水分的变异状况。自回归状态空间模型可用于研究黄土高原北部水蚀风蚀交错区表层土壤水分与其他因素的空间关系。     

Predicting the rate of range expansion of an invasive alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) using a stochastic spatio-temporal model

To develop effective strategies for managing biological invasions, it is important to understand and be able to predict patterns of invasion and range expansion, and particularly the rate of spread and factors controlling this rate. To predict the spatial dynamics of invasion by an alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) in Hokkaido, Japan, we explicitly constructed a stochastic spatio-temporal model that incorporates immigration and establishment processes. Using a Bayesian approach, we parameterized the model based on spatio-temporal presence/absence data collected by citizen volunteers and used the model to predict control of the near-future spread of the bumblebee under several management strategies. The range expansion dynamics of B. terrestris were significantly negatively affected by two aspects of environmental heterogeneity: the land-use pattern (the proportion of woodland) and climate (the snow depth). Of the several spatial management strategies, suppressing the outlying (edge) colonies would be the most efficient strategy to reduce the bumblebee’s spread, irrespective of the level of effort, and would significantly slow the bumblebee’s range expansion during the next 30 years. The modeling approach employed in the present study will be broadly useful for studying real-world biological invasion problems, for which prediction of the progress of an invasion, even in the very near future, is urgently needed to support effective spatial management options and countermeasures. In addition, the model demonstrates that incorporating the dynamics of environmental heterogeneity is a fundamental requirement for prediction and risk assessment during biological invasions, especially in the context of recent rapid changes in the environment at regional and global scales.     

我院中文图书借阅情况统计与分析

通过对安徽经济管理学院图书馆2008—2009学年中文图书借阅情况的统计与分析,以及不同年级学生借阅特点的分析,就如何提高馆藏建设,优化馆藏结构,满足不同读者的阅读需求,提出了合理建议。     

小灵猫泌香规律试验研究

对连续 7年的小灵猫产香记录进行统计分析 ,就二因子差异和相关关系进行显著性检验 ,结果显示 ,小灵猫的年度泌香周期中存在一个高峰期 ,与小灵猫的繁殖季节相对应。小灵猫的泌香和挤香之间 ,每一月度的首次挤香和第 2次挤香之间存在着显著的相关关系。小灵猫的泌香不存在性别差异。此外 ,饲料和营养的改善能提高产香量。     

美国《数学评论》光盘版2004年收录中国高校学报统计

利用美国《数学评论》2004年光盘，对其收录的90余种中国高校学报进行了检索统计．结果表明：2004年总计收录1858条，江苏、山东、北京和上海为入选期刊数最多的省市，收录量列前3住的依次是四川、山东和江苏。其中四川大学学报（0490—6756）收录量最多，为87条，四川师范大学学报自然科学版（1001-8395）收录76条，为师范大学学报收录最多的期刊。     

《经济林研究》近10年载文分析

应用文献计量法对《经济林研究》1993-2002年10年间发表载文的刊容特征、题材类型、基金论文、作者合著关系、论文全国分布情况进行统计分析。总结本刊具有的特点和优势．揭示载文内在规律．促进全国经济林发展事业．提供了参考依据．     

: a software to evaluate model performance

The software (Integrated Resources for Evaluating Numerical Estimates) is a data analysis tool designed to provide easy access to statistical techniques for use in model evaluation. Mostly, non-replicated model estimates (E_i) are compared against non-replicated measurements (M_i). The software also allows comparing individual estimates against replicated measurements (or vice versa) and replicated estimates against replicated measurements. The evaluation of model performance is essentially based on the difference E_i−M_i, or on the correlation–regression of E_i vs. M_i (or vice versa). In addition, model evaluation by probability distributions, pattern analysis, or fuzzy-based aggregation statistics is allowed. Graphics are included in most analytical tasks. The results are displayed in separate spreadsheets and can be exported into MS Excel workbooks.     

Quantifiable Technique for Product Definition

近年来，我国水果种植业发展十分迅速，总产量跃居世界第一位。但是，一种奇怪的现象一直困扰着水果市场，一方面农民卖果难；另一方面水果出口数量发展缓慢，国内市场终端的水果质量也不尽人意。除了某些水果品种过时、栽培技术有待改进外，另一个主要原因就是水果物流过程中存在着诸多问题。提高我国水果在国际市场的竞争能力，改善我国水果市场终端的商品品质，减少水果采后物流中的损耗是摆在水果研究人员面前亟待解决的问题。本文将对几种有代表性水果的物流现状进行概述，并就目前水果物流中存在的问题进行分析。１红富士苹果１．１主…     

过程能力分析法在卷烟烟支质量控制中的应用

根据数理统计的原理和方法,运用过程能力分析的方法,通过计算卷烟生产过程烟支质量过程能力指数,开展工序质量过程能力评价,及时了解各工序对卷烟品质的控制能力,确保烟支生产的稳定性,从而提高卷烟企业在市场中的竞争力。     

四川广元剑门关景区地质遗迹资源及其可持续发展

探讨了剑门关景区地质遗迹资源的分类、特色、开发和保护现状、可持续发展的现状和能力等,对其地质遗迹资源与可持续发展的辩证关系进行了论述,以试图改变近年来其旅游业发展速度减慢的状况,为其旅游业的健康发展提供一个新的思路。