Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

胶合板厂生产规划模型与运用

本文根据胶合板厂实际情况，建立了杨木胶合板厂生产规划模型。该模型考虑各主要设备工段、产品组合、产品混合、产品价格、流动资金、原材料供应以及市场约束等问题。本模型能够满足市场竞争，获取最佳利润，同时还能解决胶合板厂“三板”（表、背、芯单板）不平衡问题。     

供水工程影响下中国北方地区耕地后备资源开发潜力

灌溉水源是北方地区耕地后备资源能否有效开发的关键。当前,中国正在推动国家水网工程规划建设,为北方地区耕地后备资源开发提供了新的机遇。在以往研究基础上,该研究考虑北方地区已建、在建及规划的供水工程,基于自然适宜、利用高效、发展稳定三方面评价准则,结合三维魔方空间分类方法,开展了雨养情景和供水灌溉情景下耕地后备资源开发潜力分析。结果表明：雨养农业情景下,北方地区勉强适宜（Ⅱ级）、中度（Ⅲ级）和高度（Ⅳ级）适宜的耕地后备资源面积分别为2.9万、1.0万和0.6万km²。灌溉农业情景下,耕地后备资源面积明显增加,勉强适宜（Ⅱ级）、中度（Ⅲ级）和高度（Ⅳ级）适宜的耕地后备资源面积将分别达到5.4万、7.6万和6.5万km²,主要集中于新疆、内蒙古和甘肃3省（自治区）。该研究结果可为中国耕地后备资源开发利用及国家水网工程效益发挥提供参考。     

Breeding objectives for beef cattle used in different production systems: 2. Model application to production systems with the Charolais breed

A general bio-economic model for beef cattle production was used to define breeding objectives for Charolais cattle to be utilized in a variety of linked production systems. Economic weights were calculated for 16 traits (some with both direct and maternal components) in three production systems (pure-breeding and terminal crossing with beef or dairy cows) and two marketing strategies (sale or fattening of weaned surplus calves). Economic weights for the total breeding objective were calculated as weighted averages, where weights were numbers of cows expected to be mated with Charolais bulls in each production system and marketing strategy. Results suggest that the direct component of calving performance and cow longevity were of primary economic importance in all systems. Conception rate of cows and weaning weight reached about 50% of the standardized economic weight of calving performance in purebred systems with sale of weaned calves, whereas in purebred systems with fattening the economic importance of the direct component of cow conception rate, losses at calving, mature weight of cows, weaning weight, and fattening traits were of equal importance (each approximately about 20% that of calving performance). In terminal crossing systems, weaning weight was important when calves were sold at weaning, and fattening traits were important for systems selling fattened animals. The bio-economic model performed well under the conditions of this demonstration and could easily be customized for other applications.     

遥感信息在土地资源等级划分与质量评价中的应用——以内蒙古乌拉盖开发区为例

本文利用 RS、GIS的高新科技手段 ,对乌拉盖综合开发区土地资源质量等级划分与评价进行了认真研究 ,编制出乌拉盖综合开发区土地资源质量等级分布图 ,对各不同土地资源质量等级进行了评价 ,为该地区确定最佳土地利用方向、提高土地资源的生产效益、经济效益和生态效益提供科学依据     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Prepenetration stages in infection of clematis by Phoma clematidina

A detailed study of conidial germination, germ-tube growth and the formation of infection structures in Phoma clematidina , the causal agent of clematis wilt, is described for two clematis varieties differing in disease resistance. On both the resistant and susceptible varieties, the fungus entered leaves and stems by direct penetration of the cuticle, often, but not always, following the formation of infection structures. More germ tubes per conidium were formed on the susceptible host, but these germ tubes were on average shorter than on the resistant host. Although germ tubes regularly entered the plant via trichomes, stomata were not found to be sites of entry. Following penetration of the cuticle of resistant plants, germ-tube growth was sometimes restricted to the subcuticular region, and halo formation occurred at the sites where penetration was attempted. Subcuticular growth and halo formation were not observed on susceptible plants. These observations may partly explain the resistance of small-flowered clematis varieties to P. clematidina .     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.