A logistic analysis of the factors determining the decision of smallholder farmers to intercrop: A case study involving rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka

The factors influencing the decision of smallholder farmers to adopt new farming technologies were studied with reference to rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka. Rubber–tea intercropping has been recommended previously to rubber farmers as a means to improve productivity and income during the early pre-tapping phase of rubber growth. Although crop trials have shown that the two crops are agronomically compatible and potentially produce a combined economic yield superior to the yield of a sole crop grown on the same area of land, there is little evidence of widespread adoption of this practice among smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka. The aim of the study was to determine the major factors that influence the decision to undertake rubber–tea intercropping and to construct a predictive model that describes the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by traditional smallholder rubber growers. A rapid rural appraisal (RRA) was undertaken based on semi-structured interviews of 90 smallholder farmers in the main rubber growing low wet zone of Sri Lanka. Among a number of factors shown to significantly influence the decision to intercrop tea with rubber, three were shown to operate independently, namely level of income, source of income (i.e. solely from own farm or from farm plus additional off-farm enterprises), and availability of land considered suitable for tea cultivation. A statistical model developed through correlation and logistic analysis, which predicts the likelihood of a smallholder adopting intercropping based on these factors, is presented and discussed. The most likely combination of circumstances (82% probability) under which rubber–tea intercropping is practiced is shown to be where the farmer’s income is greater than Rs. 10,000 per month, where the farmer’s income is based solely on own farm enterprises, and where more than 80% of the farmer’s land area was judged to be suitable for tea cultivation. Conversely, 30% of smallholder farmers that chose not to intercrop did possess land suitable for tea cultivation. Qualitative responses to the RRA indicated that limitation of technical knowledge was the main problem subsequently faced by rubber farmers who had adopted rubber–tea intercropping. Results indicate that there is need for both income support through farm subsidies and further agricultural extension services, if rubber–tea intercropping is to be adopted more widely in Sri Lanka. The wider usefulness of the developed logistic model in determining the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by smallholder farmers is discussed.     

基于MK—SVR模型的小麦叶面积指数遥感反演

提出了运用多核支持向量回归(MK-SVR)算法构建小麦叶面积指数(LAI)遥感监测模型。以2010—2013年试验样点小麦拔节、孕穗、开花3期的实测LAI数据为基础,同步获取我国自主研发的环境减灾卫星HJ-CCD对该研究区域的影像数据,分析了各生育期小麦LAI与8种植被指数间的相关性。以显著相关的植被指数作为输入参数,使用MK-SVR算法构建了每个生育期的小麦LAI反演模型,即MK-SVR-LAI模型。为了评价模型,每期使用单一核支持向量回归(SK-SVR)、偏最小二乘(PLS)回归算法构建了SK-SVR-LAI、PLS-LAI模型。将模型估算LAI值和田间观测LAI值进行比对,以决定系数(R2)和均方根误差(RMSE)为指标评价并比较了模型。结果表明:3个生育期MK-SVR-LAI模型的RMSE值均低于参比模型,拔节期为0.293 1,孕穗期为0.466 8,开花期为0.548 6,且该模型的R2也都最高,拔节期为0.762 4,孕穗期为0.801 8,开花期为0.668 9。     

住房抵押贷款风险控制实证研究——基于中国银行某分行的数据分析

王先谦的《荀子集解》一书，是晚清诸子学的一部重要著述，是研究和整理《荀子》一书的集大成之作。王氏的学术成就主要体现在两个方面：一是他吸纳了清代学者中研究和整理杨倞注《荀子》一书最有代表性的成果，并对各家之说作了一个梳理和辨析；二是他个人对《荀子》以及杨注的校勘、注释、考辨等方面超出了前人的成就。     

中国产业结构优化升级引致的城镇化效应研究——一个省级面板分位数模型的实证检验

基于2000~2011年我国省级面板数据，采用面板分位数计量模型考察了产业结构引致的城镇化效应。研究发现，第三产业份额的估计参数显著为正，说明产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应是存在的。同时，这种效应对于处于不同分位数上的地区有较大差异：第三产业份额适中的省（市、自治区），城镇化效应最为明显；第三产业份额相对过高或过低的省（市、自治区），产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应较弱，估计参数呈现“两头小、中间大”的结果，显著、稳健为“倒U型”结构。     

From shallow to deep waters: habitats used by larval lampreys (genus Petromyzon and Lampetra) over a western European basin

Abstract –  Habitat requirements of lamprey ammocoetes (Petromyzon marinus and Lampetra genus) were investigated, for the first time, from shallow to deep waters, at different spatial scales across the Gironde‐Dordogne continuum, thanks to a water suction dredge. Fish‐habitat relationships were assessed through two complementary statistical analyses: habitat‐use curves and habitat suitability models using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) technique. Analyses were performed on a small‐size data set that was characterised by the low prevalence of lamprey. The sea lamprey larvae occurred in deeper areas than their Lampetra genus counterparts. ‘Pools’ of 2 m’ depth and more were optimal habitats for the former species. Among the environmental variables retained to model lamprey occurrences, the mesohabitat (a categorical variable) was demonstrated to be highly influential, in terms of fine grain‐size substratum and vegetation cover. These preliminary results suggest that monitoring using the water suction dredge method may contribute to sea lamprey conservation.     

某引水隧洞围岩变形探讨

某引水隧洞主要采用双护盾式TBM施工。在穿越高埋深的区域性断裂带时,采用绕行导坑人工钻爆法施工。本文对采用绕行导坑的围岩变形情况进行分析,指出在隧洞开挖过程中围岩变形的时间效应,为修改设计与指导施工提供理论依据。     

黑龙江垦区2006年～2008年水稻区生试品种(系)产量构成要素分析

以黑龙江垦区2006年～2008年区域生产试验的64个水稻品种(系)为材料,分析了2个熟期3a试验的平均产量与产量构成因素的关系。结果表明:在高产育种中,不同熟期应有不同的选择标准。中熟组应选分蘖中等、大穗的品种,早熟组应选择结实率高、穗数型品种。2个熟期高产育种的共同点是都应选择结实率较高的水稻品种。     

Corn (Zea mays L.) Grain and Stover Yield as Affected by Soil Residual Mineral Nitrogen

Evaluation of nitrogen (N) dynamic in soil using regression equations is important for proper determination of N fertilization. A 3-year field experiment was conducted to (1) develop the best-fitted regression model relating corn grain and stover yield to soil residual ammonium (NH₄)-N and nitrate (NO₃)-N for corn yield prediction and (2) evaluate how such a model can be beneficial to the health of ecosystem by predicting the appropriate rates of N fertilization for corn production. Soil NH₄-N and NO₃-N were determined at corn harvest at the depths of 0–30 and 30–60 cm. Nitrogen fertilizer rates and soil mineral N accounted for a maximum of 93% variation in corn grain yield. Soil mineral N enhanced corn yield more than N fertilizer. Totals of 63.1 and 14.1 kg/ha of soil residual NO₃-N and NH₄-N were found in the 0- to 60-cm depth, indicating the importance of performing soil N tests.     

‖玉‖米‖秸‖秆‖生产平菇的研究

本研究采用玉米秸秆和棉籽皮按1：1混合且无需发酵袋栽平菇的方法，生物学效率可高达145％，污染率为零，菌丝增长符合逻辑斯第曲线，总体生长速度均超过纯棉籽皮。含玉米秸秆50％、玉米秸秆长度为1－2cm的处理在中后期一直属于速度最快的。纯棉籽皮处理菌丝长满时间最长，含玉米秸秆1－2cm的处理菌丝长满时间均比3－4cm的短。含玉米秸秆的处理子实体生长速度的高峰期均比棉籽皮滞后，出菇期较长。除纯棉籽皮对照外，含50％1－2cm玉米秸秆的处理的籽实体的生长速度高峰值最高，且到达峰值的时间比对照滞后约2d。子实体产量增长符合指数增长曲线。