Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

Landscape ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> invasion in networks of linear wetlands

The interaction between landscape structure and spatial patterns of plant invasion has been little addressed by ecologists despite the new insights it can provide. Because of their spatial configuration as highly connected networks, linear wetlands such as roadside or agricultural ditches, can serve as corridors facilitating invasion at the landscape scale, but species dynamics in these important habitats are not well known. We conducted a landscape scale analysis of Phragmites australis invasion patterns (1985–2002 and 1987–2002) in two periurban areas of southern Québec (Canada) focusing on the interaction between the network of linear wetlands and the adjacent land-uses. Results show that, at the beginning of the reference period, the two landscapes were relatively non-invaded and populations occurred mostly in roadside habitats which then served as invasion foci into other parts of the landscape. The intrinsic rates of increase of P. australis populations in linear anthropogenic habitats were generally higher than those reported for natural wetlands. Riparian habitats along streams and rivers were little invaded compared to anthropogenic linear wetlands, except when they intersected transportation rights-of-way. Bivariate spatial point pattern analysis of colonization events using both Euclidian and network distances generally showed spatial dependence (association) to source populations. An autologistic regression model that included landscape and edaphic variables selected transportation rights-of-way as the best predictor of P. australis occurrence patterns in one of the landscapes. Given the high invasion rates observed, managers of linear wetlands should carefully monitor expansion patterns especially when roads intersect landscapes of conservation or economic value.     

Empirical relationships between land use/cover and estuarine condition in the Northeastern United States

Land–water interactions were examined in three regions in the Virginian Biogeographic Province; the southern shore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts; the Hudson/Raritan region of New York; and the eastern shore of the Delmarva (Delaware/Maryland/Virginia) Peninsula. Cumulative distribution functions were used to evaluate similarity in environmental condition among estuaries. Spatial-setting variables (location in a river, coastal lagoon, or in open waters) were associated with variation for some measures of estuarine condition. Patterns of coastal urban and agriculture gradients were measured and their relationship with indicators of estuarine condition was modeled statistically. When estuaries were pooled, the highest variation explained by spatial-setting variables was found for dissolved oxygen (DO, R ² = 0.44) and salinity (R ² = 0.58), with DO decreasing in river locations and salinity decreasing with rainfall and sampling locations near rivers. The explanatory power for the other indicator variables was low and varied from 6% to 27%. Rainfall explained some of the variation (R ² = 0.23) in total suspended solids. Moderate (0.4 < | r | < 0.7) to strong (| r | ≥ 0.7) linear associations were found between total urban area and measures of estuarine condition. Within regions, total urban area was positively associated with Silver (r = 0.59), Cadmium (r = 0.65), and Mercury (r = 0.47) in Cape Cod, and inversely related to DO (r = −0.65) in the Hudson/Raritan region. No associations were found in the Delmarva Peninsula study area. Total area of agriculture showed a moderate association with Arsenic in Cape Cod, but no other associations were found in the other two regions. Our analyses show a measurable impact of urban land use on coastal ecosystem condition over large areas of the northeastern United States. This pattern was most evident when many different landscapes were considered simultaneously. The relationship between urban development and estuarine condition were weaker within the individual regions studied. The use of land use/cover models for predicting estuarine condition is a challenging task that warrants enhancements in the type, quantity, and quality of data to improve our ability to discern relationships between anthropogenic activities on land and the condition of coastal environments.     

用RAPD标记分析高羊茅的遗传多样性

采用RAPD分子标记技术对从国外引进的15个高羊茅品种的遗传多样性进行了研究。从60个随机引物中筛选出12个有效引物,它们共扩增出85条DNA带,其中59条为多态性带,占69.41%,平均每个引物扩增出多态性带4.92条;利用NTSYS-PC软件计算出的不同品种间Jaccard遗传相似系数(GS)变化范围较大,为0.373~0.932;根据得到的遗传相似性矩阵进行非加权组法(UPGMA)聚类分析,建立高羊茅品种的分子系统树状图;以相似系数0.68为标准,可将所有品种分为3类,品种翠丽和贝克各自聚为一类,其余13个品种聚成一类。     

扁穗牛鞭草种质遗传多样性的ISSR分析

用ISSR标记对来自中国西南地区(四川、重庆、贵州)的28份扁穗牛鞭草材料的遗传多样性进行了检测。从96个ISSR引物中共筛选出13个多态性明显、反应稳定的引物。28份材料的DNA共扩增出129条谱带,平均每个引物扩增出9.9条带,多态性条带比率达84.2%。材料间遗传相似系数为0.466~0.980,表现出丰富的遗传多样性。通过聚类分析和主成分分析,将28份扁穗牛鞭草分为两大类,同一地区的扁穗牛鞭草品种(系)基本聚在同一类,呈现出一定的地域性分布规律。     

基于时间维度的旅游环境承载力动态研究

旅游环境承载力是描述旅游环境系统能够承受的旅游活动强度的概念,是建立在微观研究基础上服务于旅游区规划管理的重要工具。合理、科学的构建旅游环境承载力动态模型,对维护旅游业的可持续发展有着重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文首先分析了旅游环境承载力的内涵;再次,根据旅游业发展的季节性特征,运用动态改进层次分析法确定不同阶段的权重,遵循从分量承载力计量到综合承载力计量的步骤构建旅游环境承载力的动态模型;最后,为了反映旅游环境承载力的利用状况,增强实用性,对旅游环境承载率进行了研究,并以南戴河国际娱乐中心旅游区为例进行了实证分析。     

Introductions of non-native plant pathogens into Great Britain, 1970–2004

An analysis of records of plant pathogens first identified in Great Britain from 1970 to 2004 (inclusive) was undertaken to determine the numbers of new species that have become established over time. Results show that the numbers of newly recorded pathogens have not varied significantly. Of the 234 pathogens recorded for the first time between 1970 and 2004, 157 were fungi, 27 were oomycetes, 26 were viruses, 23 were bacteria, and one was a phytoplasma. Approximately 53% of pathogens were found on ornamental crops, 16% on horticultural crops, 15% on wild native species, 12% on agricultural crops, 2% on pasture plants and 2% on exotic forestry tree species. Where the origin of introductions was known or strongly suspected, 47% came from the Netherlands. About 38% of newly recorded pathogens with information on the location of first record were discovered in the South East region of England. Plant Pathologists regarded 19% of all new pathogens as important because of actual or potential economic/environmental losses. The results indicate that the numbers of new or important pathogens establishing in recent years are not increasing and that most new findings are associated with ornamental plants.     

Repeated grading of weed abundance and multivariate methods to improve the efficacy of on-farm weed control trials

We evaluated whether new information could be drawn from additional data collection and unconventional statistical analyses of an on-farm trial. First, we compared a conventional sampling method using a biomass estimate of weed abundance to repeated visual assessment of the percentage ground cover of weeds. The biomass was sampled once after the treatment, whereas the ground cover was repeatedly sampled once before weed control plus several occasions after weed control. Second, we contrasted the outcomes from analysis of variance ( anova ), taking samples from a single point in time with repeated measures (rm) anova and a multivariate method. As the outcomes and conclusions drawn were relatively similar, we conclude that the ground cover estimate of weed abundance was as reliable as the biomass estimate. The rm anova enabled us to follow the temporal trend in response to treatments in the most abundant species, including possible initial differences. Multivariate analysis went even further, by clearly displaying species-wise responses and treatment selectivity.     

内蒙古景天属植物分类及其区系生态地理分布研究

本文试图澄清内蒙古究竟有多少种景天属植物,这些植物在内蒙古的生态分布情况。我们应用形态—地理分类的方法,对内蒙古景天属Sedum植物进行认真研究。研究认为:《内蒙古植物志》第二版记载的北景天(Sedum kamtschaticum Fisch.)和兴安景天(Sedum hsinganicumChu.)应为费菜;确定了兴安景天(Sedum hsinganicum Chu.)和费菜(Phdeimusaizoon L.)为温带亚洲分布种;阔叶景天(Sedum roborowskii Maxim.)为青藏高原东部分布种;藓状景天(Sedum polytrichoides Hemsl.)为中国-日本分布种;内蒙古景天属植物从东部渗入了1种东亚成分,从西南部渗入了1种青藏高原成分。     

家天牛在中国的适生区分析

家天牛原产于非洲北部的阿特拉斯山脉,是木材和具木质结构建筑物的重要害虫。本文运用CLIMEX气候模型的气候相似系数法对该虫在中国的适生区进行了分析和预测。结果表明,中国大陆有21个省区33个市、县(地区)适合该虫生存,大体分布于23.22°N～40.59°N,99.09°E～123.32°E范围内。