Forest recovery in a tropical landscape: what is the relative importance of biophysical,socioeconomic, and landscape variables?

Socioeconomic changes in many areas in the tropics have led to increasing urbanization, abandonment of agriculture, and forest re-growth. Although these patterns are well documented, few studies have examined the drivers leading to landscape-level forest recovery and the resulting spatial structure of secondary forests. Land cover transitions from agricultural lands to secondary forest in the island of Puerto Rico have been ongoing since the 1940s. This study is a glimpse into this landscape level trend from 1991 to 2000. First, we relied on Landsat images to characterize changes in the landscape structure for forest, urban, and agricultural land classes. We found that although forest cover has increased in this period, forest has become increasingly fragmented while the area of urban cover has spread faster and become more clustered. Second, we used logistic regression to assess the relationship between the transition to forest and 21 biophysical, socioeconomic, and landscape variables. We found that the percentage of forest cover within a 100 m radius of a point, distance to primary roads and nature reserves, slope, and aspect are the most important predictors of forest recovery. The resulting model predicts the spatial pattern of forest recovery with accuracy (AUC-ROC = 0.798). Together, our results suggest that forest recovery in Puerto Rico has slowed down and that increasing pressure from urbanization may be critical in determining future landscape level forest recovery. These results are relevant to other areas in the tropics that are undergoing rapid economic development.     

Landscape patterns from mathematical morphology on maps with contagion

The perceived realism of simulated maps with contagion (spatial autocorrelation) has led to their use for comparing landscape pattern metrics and as habitat maps for modeling organism movement across landscapes. The objective of this study was to conduct a neutral model analysis of pattern metrics defined by morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) on maps with contagion, with comparisons to phase transitions (abrupt changes) of patterns on simple random maps. Using MSPA, each focal class pixel on a neutral map was assigned to one of six pattern classes—core, edge, perforated, connector, branch, or islet—depending on MSPA rules for connectivity and edge width. As the density of the focal class (P) was increased on simple random maps, the proportions of pixels in different pattern classes exhibited two types of phase transitions at threshold densities (0.41 ≤ P ≤ 0.99) that were predicted by percolation theory after taking into account the MSPA rules for connectivity and edge width. While there was no evidence of phase transitions on maps with contagion, the general trends of pattern metrics in relation to P were similar to simple random maps. Using an index P for comparisons, the effect of increasing contagion was opposite that of increasing edge width.     

Larval fish assemblages along the south-eastern Australian shelf: linking mesoscale non-depth-discriminate structure and water masses

We present findings of the first mesoscale study linking larval fish assemblages and water masses along shelf waters off south-eastern Australia (southern Queensland-New South Wales), based on vertical, non-depth discriminate data from surveys in October 2002 and 2003 (spring) and July 2004 (winter). Clustering and ordination were employed to discriminate between larval assemblages and, for the first time, to define water masses from water column temperature frequencies. Surveys yielded 18 128 larval fishes comprising 143 taxa from 96 identifiable families, with small pelagics accounting for 53% of the total. Three major recurrent larval assemblages were identified during the study, each of which matched one of three water masses, namely East Australian Current to the north (EAC; 20.5–23.4°C), Tasman Sea to the south (TAS; 14.8–17.5°C), and mixed EAC–TAS water in between (MIX; 18.3–19.9°C). All three assemblages were present in spring, whereas only EAC and MIX occurred in the more northerly constrained winter survey. Furthermore, boundaries between the EAC, MIX and TAS assemblages were found to be dynamic, with locations shifting temporally and spatially depending on EAC extent. Assemblage composition differed significantly between water masses across surveys, with EAC–TAS being most dissimilar. Such contrast was due to the presence of tropical/temperate taxa in EAC, primarily temperate-associated taxa in TAS, and a combination of EAC–TAS taxa within MIX consistent with the convergence of both waters. Results highlight the strength of employing larval assemblages as indicators of water masses, particularly in view of the potential effect of climate change on spawning habitats of shelf fishes.     

人类活动对黑河水文过程的影响分析

本文以黑河流域年降水序列为参照,利用小波分析方法对黑河年径流序列的周期性变化进行分析,利用Spearman秩次分析法对比检验了黑河年径流序列的趋势性,利用有序聚类分析法推估了人类活动对黑河年径流序列的显著干扰年份。结果表明:黑河流域年降水序列和河流年径流序列存在着多时间尺度周期;距平累积分析表明,1965年以前黑河山口以上年径流序列的趋势性较显著,1971以后对河流入渭年径流序列的趋势性较显著;黑河入渭年径流序列显著突变年份在1979年。     

基于玻璃化转变的稻谷干燥变温控制系统的设计与试验

针对在稻谷变温干燥过程中变温节点不明确、温度波动范围大和响应时间慢等问题,该研究设计了一种基于玻璃化转变的稻谷变温干燥控制系统。根据稻谷玻璃化转变曲线,确定变温控制策略,运用Logistic回归分析建立混配阀门开度和稻谷温度之间的控制模型并通过最小二乘法辨识模型参数。利用遗传算法对模糊隶属度函数进行优化,目标函数值迭代至0.118收敛,寻得最优幅宽。在Simulink仿真试验中,稻谷温度设定为42 ℃时,模糊PID控制的响应时间为66.43 s,且超调量为3.600%,优化后的模糊PID控制响应时间为37.06 s,且超调量为0.120%;在150 s加入5 s的外部信号干扰,优化后的模糊PID控制比模糊PID控制的调节时间少4.19 s且超调量减小0.050%;在稳态时输入升温信号,优化后的模糊PID控制比模糊PID控制的调节时间少16.79 s且超调量低0.338%。利用自主研制的干燥试验台进行变温试验,在变温响应试验中,优化后的模糊PID控制比模糊PID控制在目标温度和梯度升温调节时间中分别缩短了37.56 s和18.63 s;在温度稳定性试验中,稻谷温度变化范围为41.9～42.1 ℃,平均相对误差小于0.4%,变异系数小于0.5%;在建三江国家农业高新技术示范区浓江农场进行生产性验证,优化后的模糊PID控制系统响应时间小于30 s,稳态温度误差在±0.15 ℃,平均相对误差小于0.5%。测试数据表明变温干燥控制系统性能稳定,满足实际干燥作业的生产工艺需求。     

超大型离心泵站过渡过程计算及水锤防护

中短距离的超大型离心泵并联泵站在我国灌溉系统中并不多见,但随着规模化农业的发展以及跨流域调水的需求,泵站大型化是一个发展趋势,针对国外一特大型灌溉泵站(8×8000 kW)在各种特征工况下的启停过渡过程进行了计算和分析,根据计算结果提出了防护措施及运行建议:对于最大高差的组合水位,如阀门拒动将导致主泵倒转超过1.3倍额...     

草甸草原与典型草原及其过渡带群落物种组成比较

以呼伦贝尔典型草原、草甸草原及其中间的三条过渡带为研究对象,采用野外群落调查法,设置草甸草原(A)、过渡带(B1、B2、B3)和典型草原(C)5个试验样地,每个样地随机取15个1m×1m的样方,测定地上生物量、物种组成等,分析群落重要值、多样性指数、群落相似性指数等.结果表明:(1)由草甸草原→过渡带→典型草原样地内物...     

黑龙江省垦区耕地利用功能转型与调控建议

客观评价耕地利用功能,分析其演化特征及权衡协同关系,既是耕地利用转型理论研究的有益探索,又可以为自然资源资产评估和耕地利用调控提供依据。本文通过构建耕地利用功能评价指标体系和土地系统功能权衡度模型(LFTD),研究分析1995—2018年黑龙江省垦区耕地利用国民经济贡献、粮食安全保障、社会就业保障和生态安全维护4个功能的时空转型特征和权衡协同关系。结果表明:1)耕地利用总功能呈下降—上升—平稳趋势,耕地利用子功能主要经历了由国民经济贡献功能和社会就业保障功能为主向以生态安全维护功能和粮食安全保障功能为主的转型过程,转型过程可分为总功能衰退、总功能提升和主体功能凸显三个阶段;2)耕地利用功能转型三阶段,三江平原垦区和松嫩平原垦区的耕地利用功能转型呈现出明显的空间非均衡性;3)耕地利用功能转型三阶段,功能间权衡协同关系分别为权衡—协同—持平,转型过程趋于相互促进。此外,针对耕地利用功能在转型过程中面临的突出问题,从完善社会保障、农业产业体系、现代企业管理制度以及加强垦区耕地生态建设方面提出相应的调控建议。     

水泵全特性曲线的预测及对数值分析的影响

为了准确评估泵系统水力过渡过程特性并实施合理有效水的锤防护的重要边界条件,基于水泵全特性曲线的Suter曲线表达形式,提出基于牛顿插值算法的水泵全特性曲线预测方法,进一步给出一种利用水泵基本特性曲线来修正水泵全特性曲线的数值变换方法.通过与常用的水泵全特性曲线预测拟合方法的比较,以及在泵站系统过渡过程计算中的应用分析,结果表明:基于牛顿插值算法的水泵全特性曲线预测方法应用方便,相比于常用的基于拉格朗日插值算法的曲线拟合方法,牛顿插值预测方法能灵活适应基础拟合数据的扩充,而且预测得到的水泵全特性Suter曲线是合理可靠的.经过水泵基本特性曲线修正后的Suter曲线,在提高泵系统水泵稳态计算工作点精度的同时,能较准确地反映水泵全工况的流量特性和能量特性,满足泵系统过渡过程计算分析的精度要求.     

间隙比对近壁不同钝体涡激振动特性的影响

为研究不同间隙比L/D对近壁单圆柱与单方柱的涡激振动特性的影响,了解尾流对壁面不稳定性的作用机理,搭建了开式循环水槽试验台,利用粒子图像测速(PIV)系统,对过渡流下2种近壁模型进行了试验研究.结果表明:两者具有相似的涡激振动特性,当L/D很小时,钝体下侧剪切层发展受到抑制;随着L/D增大,壁面的抑制作用减弱,尾流处有形成旋涡对的趋势,旋涡逐渐靠近钝体并趋于对称,涡的尺度先增大后减小,近壁面附近流体的加速效应先增强后减弱,且主振频率逐渐减小;两者都呈现出周期性的涡脱运动,但也存在差异,方柱尾流分离点固定,而圆柱不固定;同一Re下,相同L/D下方柱涡的尺度比圆柱更大,近壁面附近的流速也更快;随着L/D增大,圆柱尾流处振幅先增强后减弱,而方柱一直增强且主振频率略小,表明近壁方柱涡脱落周期比圆柱更长.对实际工程领域应用具有一定的参考价值.