ANN在森林资源预测中的应用研究

人工神经网络(ANN)方法是基于实例的方法,不需要考虑数学模型的内部结构,不需要假设前提条件,不需要人为地确定因子权重,作为一个黑箱综合地映射研究对象的整体性。应用人工神经网络多步预测方法对甘肃连城林场吐鲁沟营林区有林地面积进行预测,网络模型的最大相对误差为0 080 8％,最小相对误差达到0 0089％,平均为0.038 6％,表明预测值与实际值吻合程度很好,因此模型的精度较高,并且建模简单经预测,林场2000-2004年有林地面积稍有下降趋势,分别为2 873.2 hm2,2 618 7 hm2,2 484.5 hm2,2 346 hm2,2 171 6hm2。     

导致一例强沙尘暴的若干天气因素的观测和模拟研究

利用常规观测资料和数值模拟方法对影响2001年4月6-8日强沙尘暴天气发生的若干天气因素进行了研究。结果表明在本次“锋面气旋型”沙尘暴过程中,气旋冷锋是引发强沙尘暴的主要系统,冷锋过境对沙尘暴的触发作用远强于气旋发展。冷锋的动力学特点决定其常与强沙尘暴伴随。影响沙尘暴的诸多天气因素中,影响地面大风形成的有效动量下传机制为高空急流下沉支使高空动量下传至对流层中层,其下方形成的深厚混合层使这一动量继续下传到地面。“混合层”从本质上反映了有利沙尘暴形成的大气层结特征,深厚混合层的是否形成很大程度决定着沙尘暴的强度。本次过程深厚混合层的形成是长时间地面加热的结果,这也是特强沙尘暴仅发生在内蒙古中部偏北地区而不是下垫面条件更为适宜的内蒙古西部的原因。混合层空气的平流对内蒙古中部偏北地区深厚混合层的形成具有相当的贡献,其影响程度与地形分布密切相关。地面热通量试验表明地面加热对冷锋过境时上升运动的强度、深厚混合层形成、高空动量下传等具有重要影响,并因此影响沙尘暴强度。     

江河源区披碱草和星星草混播草地土壤物理性状对牦牛放牧强度的响应

在江河源区披碱草Elymus natans 星星草Puccinellia tenuflora混播人工草地上研究了牦牛放牧强度对土壤物理性状的影响,2年的试验结果表明:随着放牧强度的增加,不同土壤层含水量均呈降低趋势,土壤容重、土壤坚实度呈增大趋势.相关分析表明, 放牧强度与不同土壤层含水量呈极显著的负相关(P＜0.01), 与土壤容重和坚实度呈极显著的正相关(P＜0.01),而且土壤容重和坚实度均具有累积效应.     

松嫩平原优势种羊草与其主要伴生种芦苇空间分布格局分析

芦苇是松嫩草地优势种羊草的主要伴生种,两者常常形成物种组成比较单一的混生群落或者与其他物种组成羊草 杂类草群落.选择羊草 芦苇混生群落,羊草群落和芦苇群落的交错区进行羊草、芦苇单物种格局分析.结果表明,1)混生群落和交错区中,羊草和芦苇均是以集聚分布的形式存在;2)羊草在混生群落中的格局强度小于交错区中的格局强度,芦苇在2种类型群落中的格局强度没有显著差异;3)除了考虑物种的生物学特性以外,混生群落种内、种间竞争也是影响羊草集聚分布和格局强度的主要因素,交错区中,环境异质性和种间竞争是影响集聚分布和格局强度的重要因子;4)芦苇在混生群落和交错区中格局强度没有明显差异,由此可以判定芦苇的空间分布格局形成主要受植物本身生物学特性的影响.     

热带海岸次生林群落主要乔木的种间关联分析

对热带海岸次生林群落主要乔木种群的重要值、方差比率、χ~2统计量和Ochiai(OI)指数等种间联结性指标进行测定,旨在揭示该群落优势种群之间相互作用的内在关联及种对间关联性的内在规律。结果表明:香蒲桃是热带海岸次生林群落的主要建群种;热带海岸次生林群落19个主要种群总体关联性表现为不显著正关联,反映了该群落尚未达到稳定的演替阶段;χ~2检验结果显示该群落优势种群正关联种对与负关联种对数量相当,无关联种对数较少,分别占总对数的42.7%、43.3%和14.0%,显著正关联种对数为1对,极显著和显著负关联种对数为2对;Ochiai(OI)指数显示66对种对的OI值落在[0.6,1],反映出热带海岸次生林主要种对间关联程度较为紧密。综上所述,热带海岸次生林群落优势种群种对间种间关联明显,物种之间存在一定的独立性,整体趋向稳定发展,实践中为加快热带次生林演替的进程,应重点保护正联结性较强的树种。     

Effect of Different Concentrate-roughage Ratios on Rumen Degradability of Cassava Stems and Leaves Total Mixed Ration in Goat

The rumen degradations of TMR were studied in this experiment,in which cassava stems and leaves were used as roughage and formulated with concentrate in different proportions.The purpose of this study was to formulate the available TMR for finishing goat,and provide a theoretical basis for the applications of cassava stems and leaves in goat production.Six Hainan Black goats with permanent rumen fistulas were selected,the rumen degradabilities of DM,CP,NDF and ADF of TMR with 6 different concentrate to forage ratio（2:8,3:7,4:6,5:5,6:4 and 7:3）were tested using nylon bag method.The results showed that,the DM effective degradabilities at the ratio of 4:6,5:5,6:4,7:3 were significantly higher than that of 2:8 and 3:7（P<0.05).CP effective degradabilities at the ratio of 2:8,3:7,4:6 were significantly higher than that of 5:5,6:4 and 7:3（P<0.05).The NDF effective degradation at the ratio of 5:5 was significantly higher than that in the other groups（P<0.05).The ADF degradation at the ratio of 3:7 was significantly higher than that of 4:6,5:5, 6:4 and 7:3（P<0.05).The results indicated that,the nutrient degradation in rumen were higher when the concentrate to forage（cassava stems and leaves）ratio in TMR were 3:7,4:6 and 5:5,and the recommended ratio range were 4:6 to 5:5 in production practice.     

滇东北4种典型筇竹林凋落物的持水性

以滇东北4种典型筇竹林为研究对象，对比分析不同类型筇竹林凋落物储量及持水性能，从而为滇东北筇竹林生态可持续经营提供理论依据和实践指导。研究结果表明，凋落物储量为人工筇竹-黄皮树混交林（7.61 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹-人工黄皮树混交林（6.61 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹-人工厚朴混交林（5.73 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹纯林（5.23 t/hm²）。凋落物最大持水量为天然筇竹-人工厚朴混交林（3.45 t/hm²） > 人工筇竹-黄皮树混交林（3.22 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹-人工黄皮树混交林（2.89 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹纯林（2.69 t/hm²）。4种类型筇竹林凋落物吸水速率均随着浸泡时间延长而逐渐趋于一致，筇竹混交林凋落物吸水速率高于筇竹纯林。凋落物的总有效拦蓄量为人工筇竹-黄皮树混交林（9.74 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹-人工厚朴混交林（8.95 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹-人工黄皮树混交林（7.73 t/hm²） > 天然筇竹纯林（6.23 t/hm²）。     

Challenges in developing and implementing a decision support systems (ETÇAP) in forest management planning: a case study in Honaz and Ibradı, Turkey

Decision support systems (DSSs) are indispensable tools in preparing a forest management plan for a better combination of multiple forest values. This study attempted to develop and explain a stand-based forest management DSS (Ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning [ETÇAP]) comprising a traditional simulation, linear programming (LP), metaheuristics and geographic information system. The model consists of five submodels; traditional management approach to handle inventory data, an empirical growth and yield model, a simulation to conceptualize management actions, a LP technique to optimize resource allocation and a simulated annealing approach to directly create a spatially feasible harvest schedule. The ETÇAP model has been implemented in a comparative two case study areas; Denizli–Honaz and Akseki–Ibrad?. Both simulation and optimization models outperformed to the traditional management plan. The periodical change of growing stock, allowable cuts, carbon sequestration and water production are used as performance indicators. The results showed that more amount of wood could be harvested over time compared to traditional level of harvesting. It could be concluded that various management strategies allowed managers to stimulate more decision options for better outputs through intertemporal trade-offs of management interventions as the model provided tools to quantify forest dynamics over time and space. Challenges exist to establish the functional relationships between forest structure and values for better quantification and integration into the management plans.     

印江自治县洋溪镇森林资源特点及林业发展规划

洋溪镇山区脱贫致富的最大优势在于山,提出林业发展措施：（1）采取有效的技术措施把现有的近3335hm2茶园基地管理好,并适度发展鲜果类经济林;（2）加强幼龄林的抚育和林分的封山育林工作;（3）进行山区林业综合开发,大力发展以马尾松、杉木为辅的用材林造林和低产林分改造,以优质烤烟为主产业化建设;（4）利用区位优势,发展森林旅游业。     

黑龙江省夏季林火蔓延特点

通过对2001-2007年黑龙江省夏季森林火灾调查研究发现,该地区夏季林火种类有地表火、地下火、树冠火3种,这3种蔓延方式之间相互演变,多数为地表火与地下火同时存在。夏季林火蔓延速度普遍较慢,地表火蔓延速度大多在0.05m/s以下;浅层地下火在有林地的燃烧速度为2-4m/h、草甸为1-3m/h,深层地下火在有林地的燃烧速度为0.2m/h以下、草甸为0.05m/h以下;树冠火蔓延速度一般为180-600m/h。