Changing how we approach fisheries: A first attempt at an operational framework for ecosystem approaches to fisheries management

The increasing need to account for the many factors that influence fish population dynamics, particularly those external to the population, has led to repeated calls for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Yet systematically and clearly addressing these factors, and hence implementing EAFM, has suffered from a lack of clear operational guidance. Here, we propose 13 main factors (shift in location, migration route or timing, overfishing (three types), decrease in physiology, increase in predation, increase in competition, decrease in prey availability, increase in disease or parasites and a decline in habitat quality or habitat quantity) that can negatively influence fish populations via mechanisms readily observable in ~20 population features. Using these features as part of a diagnostic framework, we develop flow charts that link probable mechanism(s) underlying population change to the most judicious management actions. We then apply the framework for example case studies that have well‐known and documented population dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to provide a clearly defined matrix of all the probable responses to the most common factors influencing fish populations, and to examine possible diagnostics simultaneously, comparatively and relatively in an attempt to elucidate the most probable mechanisms responsible. The framework we propose aims to operationalize EAFM, thereby not only better diagnosing factors influencing fish populations, but also suggesting the most appropriate management interventions, and ultimately leading to improved fisheries. We assert the framework proposed should result in both better use of limited analytical and observational resources and more tailored and effective management actions.     

陕西省化肥施用时空分异及面源污染环境风险评价

【目的】明确陕西省化肥施用现状,科学评价化肥施用环境风险,为该区域农业面源污染防控提供参考。【方法】基于陕西省1987-2016年30年化肥施用相关统计数据,分析了该省化肥施用时空分异特点,并采用相关分析模型对其化肥施用面源污染环境风险进行评价。【结果】1987-2013年陕西省化肥施用量、施用强度整体呈现递增趋势,而2013年之后全省化肥施用量、施用强度稳中有降。1987-2016年氮肥比例呈下降趋势,而磷肥和钾肥比例稳步提高,氮磷钾施用比例由1987年的1∶0.20∶0.06逐步调整为2016年的1∶0.41∶0.46。2016年陕西省化肥施用强度达799.48 kg/hm²,属于高度过量水平;陕西省化肥施用强度空间分异明显,其中关中化肥施用强度最高,陕南次之,陕北最低。2016年陕西省总肥施用风险指数为0.76,化肥施用风险总体属于重度风险等级,其中关中风险最大,陕南次之,陕北最小。【结论】陕西省化肥施用强度高,面源污染环境风险大,且不同区域空间分异明显。在确保作物产量的基础上,为有效实施面源污染环境风险管控,陕北可基本维持现有施肥强度,但在施肥结构上应注意减氮增磷补钾;关中应以降低化肥施用强度为抓手,在减肥的基础上注意稳氮提磷减钾;陕南应在降低化肥施用强度基础上继续优化施肥结构,注意减氮增磷补钾。     

Improving management advice through spatially explicit models and sharing information

Recent assessments of Chilean shrimp, Heterocarpus reedi, in central Chile have been conducted separately for the northern and southern zones of the fishery and treating them as two separate stocks. However, it is not clear whether H. reedi of the two zones interact with one another or whether they share similar characteristics. Such knowledge is necessary to determine whether they should be modeled as separate “stocks” or as a single stock. This has motivated the use of the Pella–Tomlinson model to test whether there are spatial differences in the population dynamics of H. reedi in the two zones and whether sharing information between the zones improves management advice. We test if it is better, from a stock assessment point of view, to model the stock as one unit in the whole area, or as two separate stocks. In the single-stock model, we sum the catch data of both zones, but each catch-per-unit-of-effort index is fit as a separate data set, using a joint likelihood. Under the single-stock hypothesis, the best model fit was the symmetric production function (i.e. the Schaefer model for which the biomass that supports maximum sustainable yield as a proportion of carrying capacity (B_MSY/B₀) = 0.5), with different catchability coefficients for each CPUE index, but a shared standard deviation of the log-normal likelihood function. Under the two-stock hypotheses, both catch and CPUE data were separated for each zone in the model. In this case, the best model fit is also the one with symmetrical production curve, and the only parameter that differed between the zones was B₀. However, B₀ per unit of habitat was similar for the two zones. Also, the precision of estimated management quantities was improved by modeling the appropriate spatial structure and sharing information among zones. The results suggest that the demographic parameters are similar for the two zones. It appears that the main difference between the two zones is the exploitation history, with the catch in the southern zone being reduced earlier than in the northern zone and consequently the biomass in the southern zone increased earlier than in the northern zone. This implies that local depletion can occur in this stock and that differences in management among zones may require explicitly modeling sub-stocks in the assessment of this and other species.     

Modelling of common European cockle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cerastoderma edule</Emphasis> fishing grounds aimed at sustainable management of traditional harvesting

In the Bay of Saint-Brieuc, a 3,110-ha tidal bay in NW France, English Channel, the cockle Cerastoderma edule has been collected by traditional fishing methods for many decades without any evaluation or management of this resource taking place. Since 2001, the National Natural Reserve of the bay of Saint-Brieuc has carried out an evaluation of the stock and a mapping of the cockle fishing grounds each year. Analysis of the spatial structure of the population is approached by cartography through interpolation of the data using the kriging method. The recruitment zones are geographically quite well defined and located in areas limited to the mean-tide zone. The distribution of the population was affected by passive displacement of juvenile cockles. Evaluation using the matrix of individual numbers for each age group found the inter-annual mortality rates to be about 60%. Somatic production was estimated and expressed in ash-free dry weight. The average annual production ranged from 7.4 to 14.5 g/m2. In the autumn of 2006, the minimum legal fishing size changed from 30 to 27 mm (corresponding to individuals aged about 2.5 years). The model developed shows that this change has led to a doubling of the fishable stock.     

外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系的构建

为了评估外来海洋物种入侵的风险,根据外来海洋物种入侵特点,在文献分析和专家咨询的基础上,采用层次分析和三角模糊数数值标度计算权重的方法,设计5个一级指标和20个二级指标,构建了外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系。利用该评估体系对7种（类）典型海洋外来种进行了风险评估。评估结果表明,互花米草和对虾白斑病毒为极高风险等级;沙筛贝、米氏凯伦藻和帕金虫为高风险等级,罗非鱼为中风险等级;大菱鲆为低风险等级。由于传统层次分析法的“1～9标度”方法不能精确地反映人的实际思维,从而影响最终的判定结果,本评估体系借鉴了三角模糊数表示的改进方法来计算权重值,并对一级指标和二级指标的相对权重均进行了权重设计,得出的结果更加精确地反映了人的实际思维。外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系的建立将为外来海洋物种入侵风险管理提供决策依据和参考。     

长沙市某县退出小反刍兽疫强制免疫暴发的定性风险评估

小反刍兽疫(PPR)是一种由小反刍兽疫病毒引起的疾病,主要感染山羊和绵羊。2021年为加快推进小反刍兽疫无疫区建设,实现小反刍兽疫非免疫无疫区建设标准,长沙市某县拟在本地开展小反刍兽疫退出强制免疫风险评估。通过对小反刍兽疫监测流调、危害识别、风险路径的确定和风险因素层级评估等方法进行的定性风险评估初步显示,在该地取消小反刍兽疫强制免疫后可能会发生小反刍兽疫的风险等级为中。在风险管理措施上,提出该地退出强制免疫应推迟一年,重点完善政策支持、加强监测排查、加强检疫监管、强化培训宣传等建议。     

河南省氮素农业面源污染风险评价与关键管控区识别

农业面源污染是我国水环境保护面临的重要问题,风险评价对于农业面源污染防治具有重要意义。本研究以河南省为研究区域,采用层次分析法的分级赋值方法,基于熵值法和专家打分确定各影响因子权重,构建河南省氮素农业面源污染风险多因子综合评价模型,计算河南省氮素农业面源污染风险指数并在流域尺度上进行验证,划分氮素农业面源污染的风险等级并识别关键管控区。结果表明：种植源、养殖源和生活源分别贡献河南省31.52%、38.47%和30.01%的氮素流失负荷,流失负荷呈现为西低,中、东部高的特点。河南省有39 429 km²的区域存在中风险,约占河南省总面积的23.61%,有17 318 km²的区域存在高风险,约占总面积的10.37%;划定距河流2 km以内的中、高风险区为一般管控区和重点管控区,面积分别为10 982 km²和9 285 km²。通过与同期水质自动监测数据进行相关分析,决定系数为0.82,表明模型模拟结果具有较高的精准度。综合结果表明,建立的多因子综合评价模型具有科学性和准确性,可用于氮素农业面源污染风...     

基于DPSIR-TOPSIS和障碍度模型的青海省生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断

探究青海省的生态安全变化,对其生态安全进行定量评价,诊断影响生态安全的障碍因子,能够为青海省乃至青藏高原地区的生态保护和高质量发展提供理论依据。本研究以青海省为研究范围,基于DPSIR模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法评价分析2010—2020年生态安全时空演化特征,并运用障碍度模型诊断影响生态安全的主要因素。研究结果表明在研究时段内青海省生态安全指数由2000年的0.31增加至2020年的0.71,生态安全等级由较不安全水平提高到较安全水平,生态安全整体状况处于稳步向好发展趋势。市州层面,海南州的生态安全指数增幅最大,玉树州增幅最小,在空间上大致呈现出从“东部领先”到“东南超越”的演进格局。通过障碍因子诊断发现青海省生态安全的主要因素由起初的智力资本不足与污染排放,转变为人口增长与畜牧业发展。提出应加强推行禁牧、轮牧与休牧制度,吸引高层次人才,土地优化利用、加强环保宣传教育力度,提高全民环境保护意识等提升青海省生态安全的对策建议。     

南海渔业资源状况及其管理挑战

本文通过归纳南海各渔业区的渔业资源特点及国内渔业管理现状,提出了当前南海渔业资源及其管理面临的主要挑战。南海为我国渔业资源最富饶的海域之一,然而南海北部渔业区重要经济种类正面临资源开发过度的严峻形势。南海外海开发潜力巨大,但迫切需要及时丰富和优化渔业资源调查评估和手段。有关南海目前的渔业管理现状,休渔制度的实行使得开捕后的多种主要经济物种资源有所恢复,但效果有限,仍需未来更多的研究和调查数据来论证休渔制度的效果。人类活动、气候变暖及海洋酸化、资源评估手段较为单一和落后等问题,为南海渔业资源的管理和养护带来巨大挑战。制定合理的渔业资源养护和管理措施,开展持续的资源调查以及引入合适的资源评估手段,对实现南海渔业资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。     

Landslide erosion risk to New Zealand pastoral steeplands productivity

Pastoral land use in New Zealand's North Island hill terrain has led to high rates of rainstorm-induced landslide erosion higher than existed under the indigenous forest regime, with consequent soil productivity declines in the long term. To assist extrapolation of research results to other areas, and to shed light on long-term erosion risks, a simple model was developed that simulates the evolution of hillslope soil productivity, taking into account the effect of slope, rainstorm magnitude–frequency relations and soil recovery rates. Risks are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation, and reflect parameter uncertainty as well as the natural randomness associated with climatic events. A sensitivity analysis showed that landslide risk was most affected by the rainfall threshold for landsliding, the mean of the extreme value distribution for annual maximum storm rainfall, and the maximum degree of recovery of pasture productivity following landsliding. Simulations suggest productivity stabilizes at a reduced level well before all steep terrain is affected by landsliding, and that subsequent expected landslide-induced productivity declines are too slow to provide sufficient economic motivation for measures to prevent landslide damage. A refined model showed that long-term average rates of productivity decline are sensitive to changes in recovery rates resulting from progressive removal of the soil resource. Charts summarizing simulation results can be used to estimate long-term productivity declines. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.