水文设计值置信区间估计研究

【目的】研究给定设计标准下水文设计值置信区间的估算方法,评定设计值的不确定性。【方法】以陕西省关中地区4个气象测站年降水量为例,选用矩法(MOM)和极大似然法(ML)研究P-Ⅲ分布水文设计值的置信区间计算方法,计算出不同设计频率下水文设计值在95%置信水平下的置信区间,并对基于矩法和极大似然法估算的设计值置信区间的长度数据进行比较分析。【结果】在设计频率为0.2%时,周至、临潼、蓝田、户县4个测站采用极大似然法估算在95%置信水平下的设计值置信区间长度分别为414.28,338.88,360.65和371.24,采用矩法估算在95%置信水平下的设计值置信区间长度分别为546.61,435.64,384.91和403.92。在设计频率为99%时,上述4站采用极大似然法估算在95%置信水平下的设计值置信区间长度分别为144.44,124.93,177.67和160.73,采用矩法估算在95%置信水平下的设计值置信区间长度分别为183.28,151.26,187.31和178.62。由此可知,在低设计频率和高设计频率时,极大似然法估算的设计值置信区间长度均较矩法小。【结论】置信区间能够为设计值的估算提供相对可靠的变化范围,用极大似然法估算水文设计值的置信区间比矩法能更有效地降低水文设计值的不确定性。     

岩样单轴抗压强度区间估计分析

基于岩石单轴抗压强度为正态分布随机变量,利用数理统计理论对岩样单轴抗压强度置信区间、置信度等问题进行了系统的分析研究,整理并推导出了岩样单轴抗压强度"区间估计指标"的理论计算公式,并分析了岩样单轴抗压强度样本均值、样本标准差、总体均值置信区间、总体标准差置信区间等与岩样数量之间的关系,最后利用前人试验数据进行了验证应用与分析。结果表明:现有"单值点指标"方法给出的数据"信息不足",导致不同试验条件下得到的各组试验数据之间的横向比较的可靠性得不到保证,而"区间估计指标"可克服其不足,且在岩样数量较小时仍可使用,只是其置信度会较低(置信区间宽度会较大);当岩样数量较小时,样本标准差的波动性比样本均值的波动性约高一个数量级,样本标准差的随机性与离散性更大且达到收敛稳定所需的岩样数量也更大;岩样单轴抗压强度的"区间估计指标"置信区间、置信度等与岩样数量、岩样非均质性、岩样强度分布的随机性等有关。     

减少微波与切片回潮出口水分置信度的差异

为了解决微波松散回潮比切片回潮后的出口水分置信度偏低问题,以5 500kg/h片烟生产线配置为例,通过对两种回潮工序工艺流程、回潮筒体结构改造以及片烟处理方式等方面进行比较,以提高微波松散回潮后出口水分置信度,达到减少与切片回潮的差异的目的。     

文化自信视域下高职《茶艺》课程德育渗透研究

课程思政是新形势下提出的高等学校加强思想政治品德教育的新渠道。本文通过分析《茶艺》课程中蕴含的德育元素,研究了茶文化的德育功能,提出借助传播茶艺,把德育元素渗透到课堂中,并且延伸到校园的每一个角落,净化学生的心灵,树立文化自信的观点,最后还探讨了茶文化在高职院校德育教育渗透的途径。     

Consumer confidence and consumers' preferences for infant formulas in China

A series of safety incidents related to domestically-produced infant formulas(DIFs) almost destroyed Chinese consumer confidence in domestic dairy products. Understanding consumer confidence and its effect on consumption behavior is important to restore consumer confidence and enhance the competitiveness of domestic dairy industry. This article first measures Chinese consumer confidence in DIFs safety using a two-dimension scale(optimism and pessimism) and then investigates its effect on consumers' preferences for DIFs through a choice experiment. Involving 450 consumers residing in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, the experiment elicited information on their preferences for DIFs with six attributes(organic raw milk, farm-to-table traceability, region of origin, quality certification, animal welfare, and price). Our analysis yields four findings. First, Chinese consumers still lack confidence in DIFs safety. Second, quality certification is the most preferred product characteristic, followed by organic raw milk and farm-to-table traceability. Third, serving as a signal of high quality, price exerts a positive impact on choices of DIFs for pessimistic consumers. Finally, consumer preferences for farm-to-table traceability and region of origin are significantly influenced by consumer confidence.     

The use of half-lives and associated confidence intervals in biological research

The advantage of presenting experimental data in terms of half-life is discussed and a simple method of calculating a half-life from experimental data is described. Two methods of determining the confidence interval associated with the estimate of half-life are given and advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed.     

全国森林资源清查和规划设计调查结果的比较及其使用

介绍了历次一类调查结果和江西省同期一、二类调查主要指标.提出当二类调查全部用抽样控制时,用估计区间作比较,而二类调查部分和全部未作抽样控制时,以允许误差为标准作比较;一类调查资料用于制定本地区的林业计划、规划以及对外数据公布等,二类调查资料用于分解计划、规划到二类调查单位等.