黄河未来输沙量态势及其适用性对策

[目的] 探索黄河输沙预测的新思路，预估黄河未来输沙态势与输沙量水平，为黄河流域生态治理规划提供参考。[方法] 结合黄河流域水土保持生态修复现状，采用单累积曲线法、滑动平均及频率分析方法，分析1950—2019年黄河主要来沙区间的实测输沙量变化特征及其未来态势。[结果] 1950—2019年黄河输沙量呈现阶梯式减少。1950—2019年黄河中游各站累积实测输沙量随时间的变化可用“左半抛物线”表征。黄河输沙量自1997年以来已进入相对稳定态势，目前已达企稳状态；黄河潼关站未来年输沙量在90%频率下为1.00×10⁸ t左右，在10%频率下为5.00×10⁸ t左右，未来多年平均输沙量为1.40×10⁸ t。[结论] 为了维持黄河输沙量低稳状态，提升水土保持措施质量与标准，补齐“后水土保持”短板，构建完善的水沙关系调控体系，维持黄河下游河道冲淤平衡，是黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的保障。     

Specific ion effect of H+ on variably charged soil colloid aggregation

Specific ion effects (Hofmeister effects) have recently attracted the attention of soil scientists, and it has been found that ionic non-classic polarization plays an important role in the specific ion effect in soil. However, this explanation cannot be applied to H⁺. The aim of this work was to characterize the specific ion effect of H⁺ on variably charged soil (yellow soil) colloid aggregation. The total average aggregation (TAA) rate, critical coagulation concentration (CCC), activation energy, and zeta potential were used to characterize and compare the specific ion effects of H⁺, K⁺, and Na⁺. Results showed that strong specific ion effects of H⁺, K⁺, and Na⁺ existed in variably charged soil colloid aggregation. The TAA rate, CCC, and activation energy were sensitive to H⁺, and the addition of a small amount of H⁺ changed the TAA rate, CCC, and activation energy markedly. The zeta potential results indicated that the specific ion effects of H⁺, K⁺, and Na⁺ on soil colloid aggregation were caused by the specific ion effects of H⁺, K⁺, and Na⁺ on the soil electric field strength. In addition, the origin of the specific ion effect for H⁺ was its chemical adsorption onto surfaces, while those for alkali cations were non-classic polarization. This study indicated that H⁺, which occurs naturally in variably charged soils, will dominate variably charged soil colloid aggregation.     

延边地区烟草病毒病与气象因子关系的研究

为探明延边地区烟草病毒病的发病规律,为生产优质高产烟叶提供科学有效的病毒病预防措施,简要分析了延边地区2010和2011年病毒病与气象因子的关系.结果表明,延边地区进入6月份,当日平均温度高于16.0℃,烟草病毒病就可以发生.病毒病发病前10d的日平均温度高,日照时数大于6h的天数多,降雨量少的情况下,病毒病发生严重.     

基于条件植被温度指数的夏玉米生长季干旱预测研究

为验证条件植被温度指数(VTCI)在夏玉米生长季干旱预测中的适用性,以河北中部平原为研究区,应用求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型及季节性求和自回归移动平均(SARIMA)模型,对该地区VTCI时间序列数据进行分析建模预测。首先基于49个气象站点所在像素的VTCI时间序列数据,选取不同长度时间序列建立ARIMA模型,并分析时间序列长度与预测精度间关系,以期为时间序列长度选择提供依据;然后选择理想长度的VTCI时间序列数据,分别建立ARIMA模型和SARIMA模型,用于研究区域2017年夏玉米生长季VTCI预测,并分析评价两模型预测精度;最后采用性能较好的ARIMA模型逐像素建模预测,得到2016-2018年9月上旬至下旬VTCI预测结果。结果表明:基于ARIMA模型的VTCI预测精度与时间序列长度未呈现明显的相关关系,但随时间序列长度增加,模型预测精度逐渐趋于稳定;ARIMA模型对干旱的预测精度高于基于SARIMA模型,其1步、2步、3步VTCI预测结果均方根误差较SARIMA模型分别降低0. 06、0. 07、0. 09;ARIMA模型在不同年份夏玉米生长季VTCI1~3步的预测精度稳定性较好,2016-2018年1步、2步和3步VTCI预测结果绝对误差绝对值大于0. 20的像素平均百分比分别为5. 84%、6. 38%、8. 72%。     

Effects of different dl‐selenomethionine and sodium selenite levels on growth performance,immune functions and serum thyroid hormones concentrations in broilers

This trial was conducted in a 2 × 3 + 1 factorial arrangement based on a completely randomized design to evaluate the effects of different dl ‐selenomethionine (dl ‐Se‐Met) and sodium selenite (SS) levels on growth performance, immune functions and serum thyroid hormones concentrations in broilers. A total of 840 Ross 308 broilers (7 days old) were allocated by body weight to seven treatments (three replicates of 40 birds each treatment) including (1) basal diet (containing 0.04 mg of selenium (Se)/kg; control) without supplementary Se; (2, 3 and 4) basal diet + 0.05, 0.15 or 0.25 mg/kg Se as SS; (5, 6 and 7) basal diet + 0.05, 0.15 or 0.25 mg/kg Se as dl ‐Se‐Met. The experiment lasted 42 days. The results revealed that dietary Se supplementation improved (p < 0.05) average daily gain, feed efficiency, immune organ index, serum immunoglobulin A (IgA), immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM) and triiodothyronine (T₃) concentrations and decreased (p < 0.01) thyroxine (T₄)/T₃ ratio in serum compared with the control. Broilers receiving the dl ‐Se‐Met‐supplemented diets had higher (p < 0.05) feed efficiency, thymus index, the amounts of IgA, IgG, IgM and T₃ as well as lower (p < 0.05) serum T₄ concentrations and T₄/T₃ ratio than those consuming the SS‐supplemented diets. Serum IgA and IgM levels of broilers fed 0.15 mg Se/kg were significantly higher (p < 0.05) than those of broilers fed 0.05 or 0.25 mg Se/kg. In summary, we concluded that dl ‐Se‐Met is more effective than SS in increasing immunity and promoting conversion of T₄ to T₃, thus providing an effective way to improve the growth performance of broilers. Besides, based on a consideration of all experiment indices, 0.15 mg Se/kg was suggested to be the optimal level of Se supplementation under the conditions of this study.     

EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH ON VISCOELASTICITY OF HUMAN BLOOD- WITH REFERENCE TO THE EFFECT OF CELL HEMOTOCRIT

This paper describes a part of the experiments concerning the viscoelasticity of human blood, which are based upon the theories lead by the authors. The data from the experiments are compared with those in the literatures. The effect of cell hematocrit on viscoelasticity is especially discussed and a new viscoelasticity index is defined to eliminate this effect.     

An EOQ Model at Random when Average Demand Is a Linear Increasing Function

For certain types of inventory, the ordering cycle and demand may be random variants, which satisfy certain types distribution. The classical EOQ model usually neglects the fact. Based on the constant demand, under the hypothesis that the ordering cycle is a random variant which satisfies exponent distribution, average demand is a linear increasing function, this paper considers the effects of the time-value of capital and inflation on replenishment strategy of inventory system. Loosening the condition of basic economic order quantity model under deterministic state, the total cost function of the model is provided. The optimum order quantity and cycle are obtained. The application range of EOQ model under the constant demand is widened. The theoretical evidence is provided for the inventory system to make management decision.     

荷电颗粒多相湍流数学模型的构建

随着静电喷雾技术的发展,对荷电多相湍流的研究也不断深入,由于这一流动现场极其复杂,模型构建的难度增大.在多相湍流模型建立的理论基础上,采用双流体模型,考虑湍流脉动与电场耦合作用,引入“体平均”概念,构建了荷电多相湍流数学模型.“双流体”多相湍流模型在工业领域模拟复杂湍流中的成功应用和不断发展,为荷电多相湍流提供了新的工程模拟模型和方法.在单相荷电流体湍流模型方程建立的基础上,根据“双流体”多相湍流模型建立的理论基础,把荷电颗粒当作拟流体处理,借用拟流体多相湍流描述方程建立的方法,推导了荷电颗粒拟流体多相湍流的描述方程,为进一步获得荷电颗粒拟流体多相湍流模型提供了基础.     

基于虚拟样机技术的扭杆悬架汽车平顺性仿真

运用面向整车系统的数字化虚拟样机技术和大型机械系统动力学仿真软件ADAMS建立了包括前后悬架、轮胎、转向系统及整车的多体动力学模型。用Visual Basic编制了路面生成文件，生成不同等级的随机路面。对整车进行了随机输入平顺性仿真分析，把仿真数据输入编制的平顺性仿真程序中，发现结果满足国家规定的汽车平顺性评价标准。