苜蓿黄萎病菌在我国的适生性分析研究

本文以适生性评判指标分析为基础,采用生物学建模与GIS分析相结合的方法,依据我国677个气象站点的逐月气温数据以及全国土壤pH等值线图,对苜蓿黄萎病菌在我国的适生性作了分析研究。结果表明,苜蓿黄萎病菌在我国的适生性强,适生范围较广,每年4~9月份,该病菌在我国西北、东北以及华北地区的适生程度处于较高水平。鉴于此,我国应加强苜蓿黄萎病菌的植物检疫措施力度,严防该病的传入或扩散。     

Identification of Landscape Elements Related to Local Declines of a Boreal Grey-sided Vole Population

Several studies indicate a long-term decline in numbers of different species of voles in northern Fennoscandia. In boreal Sweden, the long-term decline is most pronounced in the grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus). Altered forest landscape structure has been suggested as a possible cause of the decline. However, habitat responses of grey-sided voles at the landscape scale have never been studied. We analyzed such responses of this species in lowland forests in Västerbotten, northern Sweden. Cumulated spring densities representing 22 local time series from 1980–1999 were obtained by a landscape sampling design and were related to the surrounding landscape structure of 2.5×2.5 km plots centred on each of the 22 1-ha trapping plots. In accordance with general knowledge on local habitat preferences of grey-sided voles, our study supported the importance of habitat variables such as boulder fields and old-growth pine forest at the landscape scale. Densities were negatively related to clear cuts. Habitat associations were primarily those of landscape structure related to habitat fragmentation, distance between habitat patches and patch interspersion rather than habitat patch type quantity. Local densities of the grey-sided vole were positively and exponentially correlated with spatial contiguity (measured with the fragmentation index) of old-growth pine forest, indicating critical forest fragmentation thresholds. Our results indicate that altered land use might be involved in the long-term decline of the grey-sided vole in managed forest areas of Fennoscandia. We propose two further approaches to reveal and test responses of this species to changes in landscape structure.     

Habitat Selection and Breeding Success in a Forest-nesting Alcid, the Marbled Murrelet, in Two Landscapes with Different Degrees of Forest Fragmentation

We studied habitat selection and breeding success in marked populations of a protected seabird (family Alcidae), the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), in a relatively intact and a heavily logged old-growth forest landscape in south-western Canada. Murrelets used old-growth fragments either proportionately to their size frequency distribution (intact) or they tended to nest in disproportionately smaller fragments (logged). Multiple regression modelling showed that murrelet distribution could be explained by proximity of nests to landscape features producing biotic and abiotic edge effects. Streams, steeper slopes and lower elevations were selected in both landscapes, probably due to good nesting habitat conditions and easier access to nest sites. In the logged landscape, the murrelets nested closer to recent clearcuts than would be expected. Proximity to the ocean was favoured in the intact area. The models of habitat selection had satisfactory discriminatory ability in both landscapes. Breeding success (probability of nest survival to the middle of the chick rearing period), inferred from nest attendance patterns by radio-tagged parents, was modelled in the logged landscape. Survivorship was greater in areas with recent clearcuts and lower in areas with much regrowth, i.e. it was positively correlated with recent habitat fragmentation. We conclude that marbled murrelets can successfully breed in old-growth forests fragmented by logging.     

基于GIS的中国苜蓿资源分布和生产力分析

针对目前我国苜蓿种植缺乏合理的规划和布局、盲目引种等问题,于2006年初对全国苜蓿种植县开展了的问卷调查,对目前苜蓿资源情况进行了全面了解,并利用地理信息系统（GIS）对其空间分布和生产力状况进行了详细分析。研究表明,截止到2005年全国16个省区的614个苜蓿分布旗县的苜蓿累计保留面积达254.77万hm2,占全国人工草地面积的50.8%;并按照面积数据分布情况将其划分为5级（小于333hm^2、333～3333hm^2、3333～10000hm^2、10000～33333hm^2、33333～74313hm^2）,各级分别占苜蓿总面积的0.83%、14.49%、28.84%、42.45%、13.62%;苜蓿平均干草单产为10150kg/hm^2,占总面积的46%;根据数据分布情况将干草产量数据划分为5级（小于3000kg/hm^2、3000～7500kg/hm^2、7500～12000kg/hm^2、12000～18000kg/hm^2、18000～31005kg/hm^2）,各级分别占总面积的14.32%、21.31%、46.75%、14.86%、0.83%;全国苜蓿种子田面积17.29万hm^2,种子平均单产为325.13kg/hm^2。     

Geospatial methods provide timely and comprehensive urban forest information

Urban forests are unique and highly valued resources. However, trees in urban forests are often under greater stress than those in rural or undeveloped areas due to soil compaction, restricted growing spaces, high temperatures, and exposure to air and water pollution. In addition, conditions change more quickly in urban as opposed to rural and undeveloped settings. Subsequently, proactive management of urban forests can be challenging and requires the availability of current and comprehensive information. Geospatial tools, such as, geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS) and remote sensing, work extremely well together for gathering, analyzing, and reporting information. Many urban forest management questions could be quickly and effectively addressed using geospatial methods and tools. The geospatial tools can provide timely and extensive spatial data from which urban forest attributes can be derived, such as land cover, forest structure, species composition and condition, heat island effects, and carbon storage. Emerging geospatial tools that could be adapted for urban forest applications include data fusion, virtual reality, three-dimensional visualization, Internet delivery, modeling, and emergency response.     

Land-cover and structural changes in a western Norwegian cultural landscape since 1865, based on an old cadastral map and a field survey

Many studies of land-cover and structural changes in cultural landscapes have used historical maps as a source for information about past land-cover. All transformations of historical maps onto modern coordinate systems are however burdened with difficulties when it comes to accuracy. We show that a detailed land survey of the present landscape may enable transformation of an old cadastral map directly onto the present terrain with very high accuracy. The detailed resulting map enabled us to locate remnants of semi-natural grasslands and man-made structures with continuity from 1865 and to test hypotheses about relationships between landscape changes and landscape characteristics. The main land-cover change 1865–2002 was decrease of arable fields, and addition of three new land-cover classes: horticultural, orchard and abandoned areas. Of the 330 man-made structures present in 1865, only 58 remained in 2002, while 63 new structures had been built after 1865. We found that semi-natural grasslands with continuity since 1865 were situated on ground with significantly lower production capacity than mean 1865 production capacity. The man-made structures with continuity since 1865 were also associated with areas with significantly lower production capacity than the 1865 mean, situated in significantly steeper terrain but not further from the hamlet. Our study illustrates the potential of digitised and accurately transformed historical cadastral maps combined with detailed field surveys for analysis of land-cover and structural changes in the cultural landscape.     

Testing assumptions of cost surface analysis—a tool for invasive species management

Applied ecology could benefit from new tools that identify potential movement pathways of invasive species, particularly where data are sparse. Cost surface analysis (CSA) estimates the permeability (friction) across a landscape and can be applied to dispersal modelling. Increasingly used in a diversity of applications, several fundamental assumptions that might influence the outputs of CSA (cost surfaces and least-cost pathways) have yet to be systematically examined. Thus, we explore two issues: the presumed relationship between habitat preferences and dispersal behaviour as well as the degree of landscape fragmentation through which an organism moves by modelling a total of 18 sensitivity and dispersal scenarios. We explored the effect of fragmentation by altering the friction values (generally assigned using expert opinion) associated with patch and linear features. We compared these sensitivity scenarios in two sites that differed in fragmentation. We also used eastern grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) as an example invading species and compared diffusion models and two contrasting cost surface dispersal scenarios. The diffusion model underestimated spread because squirrels did not move randomly through the landscape. Despite contrasting assumptions regarding dispersal behaviour, the two cost surfaces were strikingly similar while the least-cost paths differed. Furthermore, while the cost surfaces were insensitive to changes in friction values for linear features, they were sensitive to assumptions made for patch features. Our results suggest that movement in fragmented landscapes may be more sensitive to assumptions regarding friction values than contiguous landscapes. Thus, the reliability of CSA may depend not only on the range of friction values used for patches but also the degree of contiguity in the landscape.     

Empirical relationships between land use/cover and estuarine condition in the Northeastern United States

Land–water interactions were examined in three regions in the Virginian Biogeographic Province; the southern shore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts; the Hudson/Raritan region of New York; and the eastern shore of the Delmarva (Delaware/Maryland/Virginia) Peninsula. Cumulative distribution functions were used to evaluate similarity in environmental condition among estuaries. Spatial-setting variables (location in a river, coastal lagoon, or in open waters) were associated with variation for some measures of estuarine condition. Patterns of coastal urban and agriculture gradients were measured and their relationship with indicators of estuarine condition was modeled statistically. When estuaries were pooled, the highest variation explained by spatial-setting variables was found for dissolved oxygen (DO, R ² = 0.44) and salinity (R ² = 0.58), with DO decreasing in river locations and salinity decreasing with rainfall and sampling locations near rivers. The explanatory power for the other indicator variables was low and varied from 6% to 27%. Rainfall explained some of the variation (R ² = 0.23) in total suspended solids. Moderate (0.4 < | r | < 0.7) to strong (| r | ≥ 0.7) linear associations were found between total urban area and measures of estuarine condition. Within regions, total urban area was positively associated with Silver (r = 0.59), Cadmium (r = 0.65), and Mercury (r = 0.47) in Cape Cod, and inversely related to DO (r = −0.65) in the Hudson/Raritan region. No associations were found in the Delmarva Peninsula study area. Total area of agriculture showed a moderate association with Arsenic in Cape Cod, but no other associations were found in the other two regions. Our analyses show a measurable impact of urban land use on coastal ecosystem condition over large areas of the northeastern United States. This pattern was most evident when many different landscapes were considered simultaneously. The relationship between urban development and estuarine condition were weaker within the individual regions studied. The use of land use/cover models for predicting estuarine condition is a challenging task that warrants enhancements in the type, quantity, and quality of data to improve our ability to discern relationships between anthropogenic activities on land and the condition of coastal environments.     

基于RS和GIS的区域土地利用动态变化及演变趋势分析

以山丹县1985年和2000年TM系列遥感数据为主要数据源,采用国家农委的土地利用现状分类系统,通过GIS空间分析技术,从土地利用类型的面积变化、空间变化和质量变化等方面定量分析了研究区域15年间土地利用的时空变化情况。在此基础上,利用Mark-ov模型,对该区域未来30年内的土地利用动态变化及演变趋势进行了分析。结果表明:15年间研究该区域的土地利用的基本特征表现为:耕地、水域和未利用土地总量增加,其中水域和未利用土地增幅较大;林地、草地、和城乡居住建设用地总量减少,其中草地和林地下降最快,草地植被利用过渡或退化较为严重,水资源利用态势更加严峻,耕地的稳定性较强,其它类型土地的稳定性较差。未来30年内该区域的土地利用变化基本趋势是:耕地、水域面积、未利用土地将持续增加,城乡居住建设用地增长缓慢,林地、草地将持续减少。增加的耕地和未利用土地将主要来源于草地和林地植被的人为减少或自然退化,生态环境将趋于恶化。     

GIS在分布式水文模型中的应用——以北京雁栖河流域为例

在GIS支持下,由北京雁栖河流域数字高程模型DEM自动生成子流域单元,每个子流域单元的降雨径流过程利用一个水箱模型来模拟,该水箱模型用一个两参数的非线性分布函数来模拟上土壤层的蓄水容量空间分布特征,计算每个子流域单元TOPMODEL模型地形指数ln(a/tanβ)的空间累积分布曲线,并对其作无量纲化处理,通过地形指数ln(a/tanβ)的空间累积分布曲线的无量纲化曲线的最佳曲线拟合确定每个子流域单元土壤蓄水容量空间变异性参数,这使得模型中的土壤蓄水容量空间变异性参数成为一个有确定物理意义的参数,也使得所建立的模型更加具有物理基础。结果表明:无论从模型的率定期还是从模型的验证期来看,模型计算的径流与实测的日径流过程线都呈现出很好的一致性和吻合性,这说明本文建立的模型对雁栖河流域的日径流量的分布式模拟是有效的。