Geostatistical interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs

Many crop growth models require daily meteorological data. Consequently, model simulations can be obtained only at a limited number of locations, i.e. at weather stations with long-term records of daily data. To estimate the potential crop production at country level, we present in this study a geostatistical approach for spatial interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs. As case study, we interpolated, simulated and aggregated crop growth model outputs of sorghum and millet in West-Africa. We used crop growth model outputs to calibrate a linear regression model using environmental covariates as predictors. The spatial regression residuals were investigated for spatial correlation. The linear regression model and the spatial correlation of residuals together were used to predict theoretical crop yield at all locations using kriging with external drift. A spatial standard deviation comes along with this prediction, indicating the uncertainty of the prediction. In combination with land use data and country borders, we summed the crop yield predictions to determine an area total. With spatial stochastic simulation, we estimated the uncertainty of that total production potential as well as the spatial cumulative distribution function. We compared our results with the prevailing agro-ecological Climate Zones approach used for spatial aggregation. Linear regression could explain up to 70% of the spatial variation of the yield. In three out of four cases the regression residuals showed spatial correlation. The potential crop production per country according to the Climate Zones approach was in all countries and cases except one within the 95% prediction interval as obtained after yield aggregation. We concluded that the geostatistical approach can estimate a country’s crop production, including a quantification of uncertainty. In addition, we stress the importance of the use of geostatistics to create tools for crop modelling scientists to explore relationships between yields and spatial environmental variables and to assist policy makers with tangible results on yield gaps at multiple levels of spatial aggregation.     

Attributes of wheat cultivars for late autumn sowing in genes expression and field estimates

Due to the growing interest in Central and Eastern Europe on cropping of wheat in optional late autumn terms, called facultative, genetic research and field evaluation were taken on four spring cultivars: Tybalt (NL), Monsun (DE), Ostka Smolicka (PL) and Bombona (PL), currently being recommended by breeders. The PPD gene analyze, expression level of dehydrine genes (WCS120 and WDHN13) in cooling test, and qPCR for RNA isolation and analyses of WCS120 and WDHN13 gene expression at the BBCH12 stage of wheat were estimated. Molecular analysis of PPD-D1 gene confirmed the presence of photoperiod sensitive allele ppd-D1b in all tested genotypes. The highest level of NRE WCS120 gene was detected in cultivars Tybalt and Bombona. Two-year field experimental study assessed the growth, development and productivity of facultative and spring crops of studied cultivars. Based on our results from field experiments and result of molecular analysis of alleles of PPD-D1 gene, the tested genotypes can be considered as potentially facultative genotypes.     

浅析河北省太行山区生态经济沟的可持续发展

河北省太行山区生态经济沟经过20多年的发展已取得了一定的成绩,在促进农业经济发展方面发挥了重要作用.面对新的形势,如何推进生态经济沟健康持续发展是一个重要课题.文章以河北省太行山区生态经济沟发展的现状为切入点,以生态经济相互协调为前提,以山区环境和资源、人口为依据,提出了建设农村高效农业,促进农村支柱产业发展等一系列建...     

Impact of soil engineering by two contrasting species of earthworms on their dispersal rates

By burrowing galleries and producing casts, earthworms are constantly changing the structure and properties of the soils in which they are living. These changes modify the costs and benefits for earthworms to stay in the environment they modify. In this paper, we measured experimentally how dispersal behaviour of endogeic and anecic earthworms responds to the cumulative changes they made in soil characteristics. The influence of earthworm activities on dispersal was studied in standardised mesocosms by comparing the influence of soils modified or not modified by earthworm activities on earthworm dispersal rates.The cumulative use of the soil by the earthworms strongly modified soil physical properties. The height of the soil decreased over time and the amount of aggregates smaller than 2 mm decreased in contrast to aggregates larger than 5 mm that increased. We found that: (i) earthworm activities significantly modified soil physical properties (such as bulk density, soil strength and soil aggregation) and decreased significantly the dispersal rates of the endogeic species, whatever the species that modified the soil; (ii) the decreasing in the dispersal proportion of the endogeic species suggests that the cost of engineering activities may be higher than the one of dispersal; (iii) the dispersal of the anecic species appeared to be not influenced by its own activities (intra-specific influences) or by the activities of the endogeic species (inter-specific influences). Overall these results suggest that the endogeic species is involved in a process of niche construction, which evolved jointly with its dispersal strategy.     

Decreasing of methanogenic activity in paddy fields via lowering ponding water temperature: A modeling investigation

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas and the huge CH₄ fluxes emitted from paddy fields can prejudice the eco-compatibility of rice cultivation. CH₄ production in submerged rice crops is known to be highly influenced by water temperature. Hence, lowering ponding water temperature (LPWT) could be an option to mitigate CH₄ emissions from paddy environments when it is possible either to irrigate with slightly colder water or to increase ponding water depth. However, paddy soil is a complex environment in which many processes are simultaneously influenced by temperature, leading to a difficult prediction of LPWT effects. For this reason, LPWT efficiency is here theoretically investigated with a one-dimensional process-based model that simulates the vertical and temporal dynamics of water temperature in soil and the fate of chemical compounds that influence CH₄ emissions. The model is validated with literature measured data of CH₄ emissions from a paddy field under time-variable temperature regime. Based on modeling results, LPWT appears promising since the simulated reduction of CH₄ emissions reaches about −12% and −49% for an LPWT equal to −5 °C during the ripening stage only (last 30 days of growing season, when rice is less sensitive to temperature variations) and −2 °C over the whole growing season, respectively. LPWT affects CH₄ emissions either directly (decreasing methanogenic activity), indirectly (decreasing activity of bacteria using alternative electron acceptors), or both. The encouraging results provide the theoretical ground for further laboratory and field studies aimed to investigate the LPWT feasibility in paddy environments.     

Is Pile Seeding Wyoming Big Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata subsp. wyomingensis) an Effective Alternative to Broadcast Seeding?

Sagebrush plays an important role in the ecological functions of sagebrush steppe plant communities and is a necessary component of habitat for a variety of wildlife including greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). At lower elevations, increased fire frequency associated with exotic annual grass invasion has heightened the need for effective sagebrush restoration strategies, but existing techniques have been largely ineffective. Our objective was to evaluate “pile seeding” (placing mature seed heads on the ground) of Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata subsp. wyomingensis) as an alternative to broadcast seeding. We used a randomized block design (n = 5) replicated in 2 yr at two contrasting ecological sites in southeastern Oregon. Treatments applied to 100 × 1.5 m plots included 1) pile seeding (four mature seed heads · pile^--1 × 10 piles · plot^-1), 2) broadcast seeding (0.5 kg pure live seed [PLS] · ha^-1), and 3) natural recovery (i.e., nonseeded). Planting occurred in fall 2008 and 2009, and plots were monitored for seedling establishment for three or two growing seasons postplanting. Seedling density was estimated at the plot scale within a 50-cm radius of each seed head pile (“island scale”). In the year following planting, sagebrush seedling density at the plot scale was up to 60-fold higher (P ≤ 0.05) in pile-seeded plots compared to natural recovery and broadcast plots. Seedling mortality was high (up to 98% reduction in density) for pile-seeded plots between the first and second growing seasons postplanting and differences between broadcast and pile-seeded plots dissipated by 2–3 yr postplanting. Although pile-seeding had higher initial density than broadcast seeding, neither technique had sufficient multiyear survival to suggest restoration efficacy at the plot scale. Seedling density at the island scale suggests that pile-seeding may be useful for establishing sagebrush islands, depending on year conditions. Research is needed to determine strategies capable of increasing long-term sagebrush seedling survival.     

Corticosterone Metabolite Concentrations in Greater Sage-Grouse Are Positively Associated With the Presence of Cattle Grazing

The sagebrush biome in the western United States is home to the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and encompasses rangelands used for cattle production. Cattle grazing activities have been implicated in the range-wide decline of the sage-grouse, but no studies have investigated the relationship between the physiological condition of sage-grouse and the presence of grazing cattle. We sampled 329 sage-grouse across four sites (two grazed and two ungrazed) encompassing 13 600 km² during the spring and late summer–early autumn of 2005 to evaluate whether demographic factors, breeding status, plasma protein levels, and residence in a cattle-grazed habitat were associated with the stress hormone corticosterone. Corticosterone was measured in feces as immunoreactive corticosterone metabolites (ICM). Males captured during the lekking season exhibited higher ICM levels than all others. Prenesting female sage-grouse captured in a grazed site had higher ICM levels than those in ungrazed sites and prenesting female plasma protein levels were negatively correlated with ICM concentrations. With the use of a small-scale spatial model, we identified a positive correlation between cattle pat count and sage-grouse ICM levels. Our model indicated that ICM levels increased by 2.60 ng · g^-1 dry feces for every increase in the number of cow pats found in the vicinity. Management practices will benefit from future research regarding the consistency and mechanism(s) responsible for this association and, importantly, how ICM levels and demographic rates are related in this species of conservation concern.     

Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.